Monaco Grand Prix Betting Preview, Tips and Odds

Roy Brindley

May 22nd, 2019

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Quick Bets:

• Sebastian Vettel to secure a podium finish (top 3) - 15/8 with Bet365
• No Safety Car - 5/1 with BetVictor
• Over 16.5 race finishers - 2/1 with Bet365

The Monaco Grand Prix normally carries more prestige and importance than half of an entire Formula 1 season. But with the passing of the legendary Niki Lauda earlier in the week, the event might well be a sombre affair with much of the usual glitz and glamour muted.

As is the tradition in Monaco the opening two practice sessions take place on Thursday. And with Friday being a public holiday in the tiny country, the third practice session and all-important qualifying are staged on Saturday.

With the exception of the staunchest Mercedes fans most Formula 1 betting enthusiasts will be hoping this is the race where Ferrari, Red Bull or an outstanding underdog, break the stranglehold of the German team – where Lauda was the non-executive chairman and a stakeholder in Mercedes Grand Prix Limited.

Can a Huge Price Win the Monaco Grand Prix?

It may be as rare as a snowflake in summertime within Formula 1 but if there is to be a stinker of a result this is the venue where it is most likely to happen. In 1996, during a wet race, just three cars saw the chequered flag with four others classified as finishers by virtue of completing 90 percent of the race laps. 15 other cars did not get beyond lap 66 including six that never completed a single lap. And the winner was Olivier Panis at odds of 300/1.

1982 was a similar story. Once again the rain arrived and chaos ensued; in a bizarre turn of events, four potential race winners either crashed out or ran out of fuel in the last two laps. If there was in-running markets available on Formula 1 betting sites during that era fingers would have been burned to a crisp.

So will there be rain on Sunday to give us the prospect of an incident-packed race? Sadly the current weather forecast says that is unlikely but do take a precautionary look at the latest updates before placing your bets here.

Predicting Monaco Grand Prix Winners

When it comes to Monaco all that has come before bears little relevance. The top speed here is a relative crawl, the circuit is undulating, the inference is on cornering and not high speeds and a barrier-lined circuit with few run-off areas is a recipe for no on-track overtaking attempts and professional racing.

Want proof? The first six cars on the starting grid in 2018 finished 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the very same order in the race. The top starting six also took the top six places in 2017. This has to be taken into consideration when formulating your Formula 1 betting strategy.

Will Max Get the Best from His Bull?

Ultimately the demands of this circuit should work to the strengths of the Red Bull cars who struggle for horsepower on speed circuits but have an excellent record at this circuit. 12 months ago their driver, Daniel Ricciardo, aced every practice session, qualifying and took the race. He also had this race in his pocket in 2016 before a massive pit-crew blunder cost him the winner’s trophy.

The Australian is no longer with the team, he’s been replaced by Pierre Gasly and he has yet to impress in his new role. So the team’s hopes probably rest with Max Verstappen. However, I see no value in him at 4/1 (top-priced at Ladbrokes). He has failed to finish this race in half of his four attempts and never podiumed here. I’m not convinced about him on street circuits and even with a circuit to suit, a Mercedes or Ferrari looks a more likely victor.

Ferrari tasted their last victory here in 2017 when they qualified 1-2 and finished 1-2. And their No. 1 driver, Sebastian Vettel, has an outstanding record here with his form figures reading: 2-1-4-2-R-2-4-1-2. Just what has gone awry with their 2019 season is unclear but they have had the second best car (and results) to date and if Ferrari’s engineers can set it up to prosper around this glorified go-kart track Vettel will make a mockery of Bet365’s 15/8 about a podium finish.

5/1 Too Big About No Safety Car

Our other recommended bets come in stats markets. We like the 5/1 with BetVictor about there NOT being a Safety Car< appearance. There was not one needed in this race 12 months ago and it has stayed parked up in five of the last 17 Monaco Grand Prix.

Of course no safety car appearance means no major crash, and no major crashes increase the likelihood of healthy finishing numbers. There was only one non-finisher in 2018 but five cars dropped out in 2017 and 2016 (meaning 15 finishers).

With four of this season’s races featuring 17+ finishers and mechanical failure now extremely rare, we think the 2/1 about 16.5+ finishers on Sunday is over-priced. 17 finishers in 2015 and 18 in 2011 push average Monaco finishing numbers up to a number just above 16 and that makes the price irresistible.

Big Prices on Fastest Lap the Play

• Sergio Perez fastest lap of the race - 300/1 with BetVictor
• Carlos Sainz fastest lap of the race -125/1 with Ladbrokes
• Lando Norris fastest lap of the race - 150/1 with Coral

And finally, at a huge price, we recommend you throw some pennies at Sergio Perez in the ‘fastest lap’ market at a whopping 300/1 with BetVictor. The Mexican driver has enjoyed the fastest lap accolade four times during his career and two of those came here at Monaco (in 2012 and 2017). On both occasions, he pitted for all-important fresh tyres at the very end of the race and landed odds of 100/1.

The McLaren is a rapidly improving car and a late pit-stop by one of its drivers remerging with a clear track before them and fresh tyres could also see it surprise in this market.

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