National Hunt Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

December 1st, 2018

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TOP 5 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRENDS

• Run at Cheltenham before
• Run at least three times in novice chases
• Run over at least 3m before - preferably won
• Finished in first two no more than four runs ago
• Officially rated 139 or more

Get the latest National Hunt Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Cheltenham Gold Cup?

The 2019 National Hunt Chase trends drew up a shortlist of three horses, including one of the four finishers in the Festival's longest race.

Discorama took second having ticked all the 'Top 5' boxes, and fitted in to all the top '15-Year' and '10-Year' trends. His two negatives were that he fell last time out, and had not won over 3m, though he had tried the trip, which is all the trends ask for.

Stronger trends picks were the Cheltenham betting favourite Ballyward and Ok Corral, both more proven over long distances, but neither completed the race

The big concern for both was their lack of chasing experience, as no winner in the last 15 years has won with less than three runs over fences, but both horses had finished top four in the previous year's Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle and won Graded or Listed chases.

Ballyward also hit the trainer trends, being trained by Willie Mullins, who has a good record in the race. The winner Le Breuil just slipped out of the trends on stamina, as the 14/1 shot had run once beyond 2m5f, finishing a well-beaten third over 2m7.5f.

Though it was a big positive that he had run placed twice over fences at Cheltenham, the stamina question took him off the shortlist, though the booking of jockey Jamie Codd was eye-catching.

KEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged up to 10
• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
• Had run at least three times in a novice chase

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had run over at least 3m before, 8/10 winners winning at least once
• Had run at least three times over fences, three of the last five running 10 times
• Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
• Had two or more starts that season
• Had won at least one hurdle race

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Last ran no more than 78 days ago
• Were officially rated 139 or more

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged 6-8
• Had won a chase before
• Had won that season, running at least four times
• Had run at Cheltenham before, two winning

Seven of the last 10 winners…

• Had never won a Graded race before
• Last ran no more than 52 days ago
• Were officially rated 145 or more

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Had run in at least two novice chases

29/30 placed horses

• Were officially rated 133+
• Had three or more starts in past 12 months
• Were running within 90 days of their last start

KEY RACE TRENDS (11 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the National Hunt Chase)

KEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRAINERS (10 years)

How Le Breuil Won 2019's National Hunt Chase

With the well-backed favourite Ballyward falling early on, it was left to Le Breuil and Discorama to fight out the 2019 National Hunt Chase.

Going head-to-head from the third-last fence, Discorama had the advantage over the last, but jockey Jamie Codd roused Le Breuil up the hill to win by half a length.

5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE RESULT

1. Le Breuil 14/1
2. Discorama 9/2
3. Jerrysback 16/1

The victory was a first at the Festival for trainer Ben Pauling, Paul Nolan saddling the second, ridden by Barry O'Neill, who had 12 months earlier been second in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.

Third was the Philip Hobbs-trained Jerrsyback under Declan Lavery with 125/1 shot Clondaw Cian the only other finisher in a searching renewal of the 4m novice chase.

Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 - National Hunt Novices' Chase