NBA Betting Trends: Finding Value Betting Against the Spread

When it comes to NBA betting, good teams win but great teams cover. You’ve heard the old adage before, and it’s bordering on cliché in the gambling community.
But there might be another phrase that makes a lot of sense: Achieving teams win; overachieving teams cover.
Let us explain.
The best teams in the NBA aren’t necessarily the best teams against the spread. In fact, in 2018 two of the three worst teams in the NBA against the spread were Cleveland and Golden State. The third was the 48-win Thunder.
So it’s not enough to simply find a winning team and chalk them up as a winner against the spread on a yearly basis.
Bet on Teams that Could Overperform
What we do find, however, is that winning teams who out-perform their preseason expectations find themselves almost always among the league leaders in record against the spread.
Consider: Over the last six seasons, 54 total teams have ranked in the top-9 in record against the spread (good math, right?).
Of those 54 teams, 47 (87 percent) also surpassed their over-under win total that season. Of the nine teams to top the ATS standings from 2013 to 2018 here is how many went over their win total by year:
- 2018: 9 of 9
- 2017: 7 of 9
- 2016: 8 of 9
- 2015: 8 of 9
- 2014: 8 of 9
- 2013: 7 of 9
But the statistic goes even deeper. Remember how winning doesn’t always mean covering the spread?
It does mean covering the spread if a winning team goes over its win total, perhaps unexpectedly transforming from a good to very good team, or a very good to great team.
Of those 47 teams that surpassed their over-under win total and finished in the top-9 against the spread, 39 (83 percent) finished the year at .500 or better.
Growing Teams Important to Watch
It makes sense that a team taking the next step in their progression might surprise oddsmakers early in the season. But one would think sportsbooks adjust to a team like last year’s Sixers or Pacers, who wound up topping their over-under win total by 12 and 18 games, respectively.
That wasn’t the case, as Philadelphia finished second in the NBA against the spread (47-34-1) and Indiana third (47-35-0).
And that’s part of the equation here, too. Those 39 teams flew by their preseason over-under win total, winning an average of 9.1 more games than sportsbooks set for them. And of those 39 teams, 29 had an over-under win total of at least 40.
So, while a team like the 2018 Brooklyn Nets won two more games (28) than their over-under win total (26), we’re not as interested in those situations.
The aforementioned Pacers had an over-under win total of 30 and wound up winning 48, a clear outlier. Again, we’re looking for teams expected to be good who far exceed expectations.
Recommended Betting Sites



- 1
Bet £15, Get £10
- 2
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus Promo Code: 30FB
Minimum deposit of £10 using deposit code 30FB - A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 placed on any sports market - Minimum odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager bonus amount x40 within 14 days • Wagering req. vary by game • Withdrawal restrictions and Full T&C’s apply - Full Terms Apply - 3
£40 Welcome Bonus
18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New depositing players on STSbet.co.uk only. Promotion from 11/02/2020 until further notice. First deposit min £10. Qualifying bet: min. £10 accumulator bet with at least two selections with min odds of 1/2 (1.50) per selection. Bonus: 50% of the amount of the first bet. Max. bonus £40. Min. 6x wagering with bonus on min odds of 1/2 (1.50) before withdrawal. Deposit method restrictions. Bonus valid for 7 days. Full T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org - 4
Bet £20, Get £10
18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org - 5
Bet £20, Get £10 in Free Bets
- 6
Double the Odds, Paid in Cash
- 7
Bet £10, Get £10 Free Bet
18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New players only. The qualifying bets to claim the Free Bet must have minimum odds of 3/1 (4.00) or higher and must be settled before triggering free bet. 18+. begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply - 8
Bet £10, Get a £15 Free Bet
- 9
Bet £10, Get £10
18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Full T&Cs apply. - 10
Bet £10, Get £10 in Free Bets
18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.