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The New England Patriots enter the Super Bowl fresh off a thrilling overtime victory in Kansas City. For the third straight year we welcome back familiar faces in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, even though it wasn’t a typical Brady-like performance in the AFC Championship game. Well, not until the end.
This was the year Brady was done, the year Rob Gronkowski wanted out, the year that Belichick would be forced to strip everything down. Yet here we are, marveling at one of the greatest dynasties in the history of professional sports.
The best coach and QB tandem we have ever seen in the NFL are trying to win their second Lombardi trophy in three years. Rookie RB Sony Michel has emerged as such a workhorse that the offense hasn’t looked this balanced in years.
So, while the eye test and early season narratives might have led people to believe the Patriots were cooked, the reality is only the Chiefs were better this year in the regular season. That didn’t work out for KC in the playoffs.
For NFL betting fans inclined to prefer the Patriots in their Super Bowl betting, here are some best wagers to consider.
There’s little doubt this line will move at top NFL bookmakers as we get closer to the actual kickoff. It’s a good idea to get in now, before more people betting forces the Pats to give up more points. It’s a good bet now, seeing how the Patriots are coming off back to back covers, including a trouncing of the Chargers in the AFC Divisional Round.
A close game in Atlanta, late in the fourth quarter, which team do you trust more? Brady kept another young QB off the field for OT, trust he will find a way to out maneuver Jared Goff.
The principle remains the same as if you are taking New England and the points. The chances are slim this game will come down to a 2- or 1-point decision. The juice is a little high, but the Patriots are healthy coming into this game.
No major injuries to hold them back against the Rams, and the most experienced head coach in the history of the Super Bowl. The Patriots are going to win and cover, like they have in each of their last four games. Two of those four games saw NE cover double digit spreads.
Granted this is the best the NFC has to offer, it’s enough to lay some extra on the moneyline.
The oddsmakers seem to be catching up with the increased scoring, especially in the playoffs. It’s the highest Super Bowl total of all-time , but one that’s pretty attainable when you look at who is playing. The dome plays a huge factor, as it does in most Super Bowls, but both offenses can explode at any minute.
The Patriots haven’t been dominant in hitting overs, just 7 of 18 this year, but they’ll get help from the Rams. L.A. hit the over in half of their games – 9/18 – as two of the more explosive offenses will take the field.
We have seen the Patriots rely heavily on their run game – in their win vs. San Diego – and their defense – keeping KC scoreless in the first half – outside of just Brady’s arm. The game may start out with the two teams feeling each other out, but this will escalate quickly.
Tom Brady at +110 is the favorite; Jared Goff is second choice at +235.
| Patriots Super Bowl MVP | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Brady | +110 |
| Sony Michel | +2000 |
| Julien Edelman | +2800 |
| James White | +2800 |
| Rob Gronkowski | +3300 |
| Rex Burkhead | +5000 |
| Phillip Dorsett | +10000 |
| Trey Flowers | +10000 |
| Chris Hogan | +10000 |
| Stephon Gilmore | +10000 |
Play any of these bets (and additional longer shots) at Karamba or 888Sport
Sure, the obvious favorite here would be Brady (+110) over Sony Michel at +2000, but nothing this year has been obvious in New England. This is a battle tested team that held off an aggressive Chargers defense and followed it up by running through the Chiefs.
Michel has gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games, the lone exception being the season finale where starters were limited. He has five TDs in the two playoff games so far, with zero sign of letting up. Going with the Patriots winning the game, and not taking Brady, it’s really their newfound feature back who would take home the trophy.
The Patriots defeat of the Chiefs in Kansas City came despite two interceptions by Brady to just one score. He still threw for 348 yards, going over that 300-yard mark for the second straight game.
With some relaxed officiating in last year’s Super Bowl, Brady threw for 505 yards. All he needs to do is outlast Goff, not throw for 400 yards. Goff has hit 300 yards just once in his last seven attempts, even though last week came up 3 yards short at 297.
Brady has only one RB he will rely on, while Goff has both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson.
Tom Brady seems to like Phillip Dorsett. The Patriots aren’t going to be able to run their way to a Super Bowl title, and the Rams will do everything they can to phase out Gronkowski. This is a big reason why Dorsett has scored a TD in each of his last three games, including the last two playoff games.
He came up huge in both postseason matchups, turning his only grab last week into a 29-yard TD. With Julian Edelman scampering around and Gronk needing a couple of bodies on him, expect Dorsett to get some scoring opportunities.
Let’s be honest, we are talking about two of the most innovative coaches in the NFL. Between Sean McVay and Belichick, you are bound to see at least one attempt on either side. The trends all point to 2-point conversions remaining on the rise, some of it due to the increased amount of missed extra points.
Don’t expect either kicker to miss a bunch of extra points. Definitely expect one of these coaches to run some trickery.
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