Next Conservative Party Leader Betting

SHARE

David Cameron has dominated the Conservative Party since his election as leader in 2005. Yet, rumblings of a potential leadership contest was picked up by the UK press as early as February 2014. Politicians are lining up to sit in the hot seat, and savvy gamblers should already be looking for good opportunities in the 'next Conservative Party leader' betting markets.

The Process

Unlike their US counterparts, UK Prime Ministers aren't limited in how long they can stay in office. The Constitution of the Conservative Party states that a leadership election is sparked only when the current leader resigns, or 15% of the party's elected MPs call for a motion of no confidence and the vote is passed by a majority.

Once a leadership election is opened, candidates must declare themselves. If more than one candidate stands, a vote is held among the entire party membership. A candidate must earn more than 50% of the vote to win.

Timing

As there are no set dates for a party leadership election, the main skill in betting on the next Conservative party leader is predicting when an election might take place.

A lot can change in a short period in British politics, and there's no point betting on the person of the moment if they don't have the staying power to last until a leadership election (a truth held in Democratic and Republican primaries in the US too); nor is it wise to bet on an up-and-comer if the leader's looking weak and there won't be time for their star to rise. That's why it's vital to have an idea of when the leadership election will be triggered.

With the Scottish Independence Referendum done and dusted, the next political flashpoint is the forthcoming general election. If the Conservatives fail to win, or suffer serious losses, it might be more than the coalition government that faces the chop.

Those who are confident of the Conservatives' electability, however, may want to look a little further ahead. David Cameron categorically told supporters that he would resign as party leader if he couldn't deliver a referendum on the EU by 2017. So those rising stars may still have a chance if the election map turns blue.

Choosing a Candidate

A strong public profile and PR skill often earmark a potential candidate. Personable, approachable and reasonable public persona make for a popular choice – comparable to Tony Blair before his meteoric rise to the Labour Party leadership.

Another key factor is party standing, indicated by previous positions of power. David Cameron, like Margaret Thatcher before him, was once shadow secretary for education, so the current secretary should always be considered. Elsewhere, the sitting chancellor would be a solid potential candidate as John Major, Michael Howard and Harold Macmillan were prior to their leadership. Exceptions happen as well; take Boris Johnson in 2015, a serious contender looking to set a precedent by moving quickly from his post as Mayor of London into party leadership.

Finally, and perhaps most troublesome, is the analysis of their desire and support. Political commentary in the press generally gives a good idea of who may be in the mix, while understanding behind-the-scenes allegiances will help predict who might garner enough support from their allies to mount a leadership campaign.

Betting Strategies

Making a prediction based on precedent and evidence is the safest way to bet, but it's far from the quickest. Sometimes a simpler strategy can yield results too.

The old tactic of backing the underdog is a tempting prospect – particularly with online betting sites that allow you to cash out early. It's worth remembering that David Davis was favoured as party leader long before David Cameron's campaign gained momentum, and underdogs like Jeremy Hunt, or politicians with proven staying power like Theresa May, might yet trump arch political plotters like George Osborne or media powerhouses like Boris Johnson, and deliver healthy profits.

Alternatively, undecided betters may want to examine other party leader betting markets for safer prospects; those who are confident of Cameron's hold over the party may prefer a punt on the 'next Prime Minister' market instead.

For the latest political betting odds and markets, visit Betfred Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be +18 to participate.

Betting Strategy Articles


BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2017 Betting Tips and Odds
BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2017 Betting Tips and Odds

One of sport’s most prestigious awards will be handed out this Sunday at the 63rd annual BBC Sports Personality of the Year gala. Ahead of the awards ceremony in Liverpool, it’s time to take a look at ... Read More

Bookies Expecting More Misery for England in Perth
Bookies Expecting More Misery for England in Perth

After a week off for the players, the Ashes resumes this week with England facing the almost impossible task of coming back from 2-0 down in the series. Defeats in Brisbane and Adelaide mean that the ... Read More

Wager the PDC World Championship 2018 with Expert Tips
Wager the PDC World Championship 2018 with Expert Tips

Darts fans have an early Christmas present with the PDC World Championships at London’s Alexandra Palace delivering plenty of punting scope. With this year's contest featuring 72 players fighting it o ... Read More

Finding Value Bets Following World Cup Group Announcements
Finding Value Bets Following World Cup Group Announcements

The World Cup draws ever closer and the groups have now been announced. If you're planning on taking a punt on some of the games, finding value bets is – quite literally – your best bet, so here's som ... Read More

As Brexit Talks Slow Down, Brexit Betting has Picked Up
As Brexit Talks Slow Down, Brexit Betting has Picked Up

It's still hard to believe that the gamble taken on voting for Brexit happened on June 23, 2016. With crucial Brexit meetings set to happen before the end of the year, now's the time to consider placi ... Read More

Bookmakers Shift Trump’s Odds in Favor of Finishing Term
Bookmakers Shift Trump’s Odds in Favor of Finishing Term

Many bookmakers offered generous prices on Trump finishing his first year's term but his first year in the White House has seen his odds fall. The movement has raised the question of whether the Presi ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Trading Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2017 GDC Trading Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Trading Limited.
Terms and Conditions   |   Privacy Policy

facebookDownload_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917twitter