NFL Betting Strategy: Player Props Markets

Marcus Mosher

September 10th, 2019

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While the most popular way to bet on the NFL is by placing wagers on the spread, moneyline and point total, there are other ways bettors can gamble on their favorite team and players.

One such method is through NFL prop bets, which allow bettors to place a wager on several different scenarios including yards gained, touchdowns scored, etc. rather than on a single game or outcome. There are several different types of NFL player prop bets, and here we will cover the numerous ways a bettor can wager on them. You can also bet on season-long prop bets or just bets within a single game.

Offensive Player Prop Bets

Think your team’s quarterback will lead the league in passing yards? Do you have a read on who may score the most rushing touchdowns in a given season? With offensive NFL player props, you can bet on several different outcomes before the season, during and after the NFL season. There are some tips and tricks for you to consider when betting on a few of the most popular player props.

If you decide to bet on the passing leader prop, it is wise to target quarterbacks who will likely be forced into throwing the ball early and often. Most of the time, the NFL’s passing leader by yards is on a bad-team or on a borderline playoff team as they are often in situations where the quarterback is forced to throw the ball excessively.

The same can be said for when deciding to bet on the league’s leading receiver as you want to narrow down your list of potential targets to players who will receive a high number of targets each week. It’s also wise to consider “stacking” these bets as often the league’s leading passer will produce the league’s leading receiver as well.

If you are are betting on a player to lead the league in rushing, think in the opposite direction as good teams will have more opportunities to rush the ball at the end of games. Before betting on a prop like the rushing title, make sure to cross-check each player’s odds with their team’s win/loss total at top NFL betting sites.

When betting on NFL player prop bets for an individual game, there are a handful of options, including whether a player will score a touchdown and if it will be the first or last touchdown of the game. You may also find some head-to-head options between competing quarterbacks. When Super Bowl betting arrives, the number of offensive player prop bets grows exponentially.

Defensive Player Prop Bets

Not only can you bet on offensive player props for the NFL, but most sportsbooks will offer defensive player props as well. Sportsbooks will typically provide props such as most sacks, interception leaders, and even most tackles. While these props tend to be a little more unpredictable and open, here are some tips to consider when betting each defensive player prop.

When picking a player to lead the league in sacks, it’s essential to find a defender who will likely have 30-40 chances at rushing the passer per game. How can you find that? Look for players whose teams are probably going to be up in several games and/or will be involved in high-scoring contests. Defenders on bad teams just don't get the same number of passing rushing opportunities as those on good teams.

The same thing holds for interception leaders. While there are some outliers, most of the leaders in interceptions each year come from good defenses that are forcing opposing offenses to throw the ball late in games. Make sure to target a few elite defenses each year and pick your favorite sack-artists or ballhawks from each group. Picking defensive player props can be tough, but with a little studying and hard-work, these can prove to be profitable.

Typically you won’t see many defensive player prop bets for individual games until you get deep in the playoffs and sportsbooks open up more markets.

You can find and make NFL player prop bets here:

Variables To Consider

When betting on NFL props, bettors need to be mindful of several factors.

• Players Sitting | Not all players will play 16 games. Often, new players will place too many "OVER" bets because they assume a player will play a full 16-game schedule. However, it's wise to believe that a player will miss at least a game or two before deciding whether or not you should bet the over or under on a player prop.
• Mind the Division | Know what division teams play in as certain divisions tend to play different styles of football. If you are placing a bet on a particular quarterback to lead the league in passing, it may not be wise to bet on that player if he plays in a traditionally defensive-strong division.
• Playing Conditions | While the NFL schedule can be unpredictable from year-to-year, make notes of which teams play an excessive amount of indoor games or games outdoors. Unpredictable weather, especially later in the season, can have a negative impact on both passing and rushing totals. Wind, snow, and rain are all factors that can help or hurt your offensive prop bet. For example, the AFC South and NFC South will play most of their games indoors, which often lead to high-scoring contests. On the flip-side, the divisions such as the AFC East and AFC North tend to play more games outdoors in bad weather come December.
• Quality of Team | Another thing that a new prop bet player should consider is the individual team's success. If you are betting on a player to lead the league in rushing, you likely want to find a running back on a team that is going to be up in the majority of games. Similarly, you'll want to find a team that will be in the playoff hunt that won't be resting starters by the end of the season. All of these scenarios should be considered before placing an NFL player prop bet.

Making NFL Player Prop Bets

While it’s always fun to place NFL player bets, it’s important to remember that sportsbooks generally limit the amount of action on player bets. Sportsbooks want to make NFL player prop bets fun, but they don’t want to offer the same rewards as other bets on the board.

Prop bets are designed for bettors to enjoy the NFL in a different way. Make sure you check out the top NFL sportsbooks to place your player prop bet today.