NFL Week 13 Betting Tips & Picks: Over/Under Plays to Back

Dave Golokhov

November 27th, 2018

Url copied!

Quick Tips:

• Bet Rams-Lions under 54.5 with Karamba.
• Bet Redskins-Buccanners under 51.5 with 888Sport.
• Bet Lions-Bears under 45 with Betfair.
• Bet Packers-Dolphins under 47 with 888Sport.

An NFL betting season that featured some very high scores in September and early October now shifts into the cold weather of December. Will that change the over-under patterns around the league?

We’ll start off our over-under picks of the week with a game that won’t be impacted by the weather thanks to the cozy indoor confines of Ford Field:

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Over/Under Total: 54.5 with Karamba

The first thought that comes to mind with Rams’ games is to bet the over but I’m going in the other direction in this one.

For starters, they are expected to get Aqib Talib back in this contest, which should give the secondary a big boost. Secondly, the Lions really don’t have an offense that will threaten the Rams that much.

Detroit’s offensive line is shaky, they mostly have no running game and since trading wideout Golden Tate, they’ve had hiccups passing the ball. Detroit had averaged 26.2 points per game through their first six contests. They haven’t topped 22 in their last five while averaging just 16.2 per outing.

The other factor here is that the Rams should re-commit to Todd Gurley in this contest. Yes, they earned a big win against the Kansas City Chiefs right before the bye but Gurley wasn’t that much of a factor. He had a season-low 12 rushing attempts.

Look for the Rams to feed him the ball plenty against a Lions team that’s allowing 4.7 yards per carry (21st). Those factors should pave the way for an under. Take Rams-Lions under 54.5 with Karamba.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under Total: 46 with 888Sport

The San Francisco 49ers were shut down by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday, scoring only nine points. That’s a searing indictment of where the Niners are at this point in the season.

They have remained at the bottom of the NFL alongside their Bay Area mates, the Oakland Raiders, who they crushed on a Thursday night game a few weeks ago.

The Niners will go into Seattle, who is playing its best football of the season. Yet, the Seahawks aren’t scoring huge numbers of points. They are solid, scoring at or just under 30 points in recent weeks, but they are not scoring 35 or more points.

Seattle leads the league in rushing and wants to run the ball here. The 49ers will want to do the same to protect a struggling Nick Mullens. Seattle will break through more and get the win, but the two teams won’t light it up enough to hit the over. Take the under with 888Sport.

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers

Over/Under Total: 44.5 with Betfair

You’ve probably heard the trend by now that the Green Bay Packers have yet to win a road game this season but are 4-0-1 at home. One of the main reasons for that is that the defense has been much better at Lambeau Field than its been in away games.

In road games, the Packers are allowing a whopping 28.8 points per game, which is seventh-worst. At home, the Packers allow just 18.8, which is fifth-best. Add in the fact that the Cards are a warm-weather, indoor team that’s going into frigid temperatures and that won’t help their cause.

Look for them to stymie a struggling Arizona Cardinals offense in this one. And if the Packers are doing the scoring themselves and the Cards aren’t contributing much, we’ll bet the under with Betfair.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under Total: 44 with 888Sport

The Redskins, playing with backup quarterback Colt McCoy in place of the injured Alex Smith, looked like a limited team with a limited offense against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. It is hard to see how the Redskins will score more than 21 points in most of the games they have left this season.

The Redskins have played solid defense most of the year, however, and therefore figure to play a lot of 20-17 or 17-16 games in this remaining month of the season.

The Eagles did beat the New York Giants, but they were outplayed most of the day by a last-place team at home. Philadelphia can’t run the ball with any consistency as they’re just 24th in rushing yards per game and that’s hampering a lot of their drives.

Washington’s defense will make this an ugly, low-scoring game and both offenses will struggle. I’d bet the under at 888Sport in this spot.