NFL Week 17 Betting Tips & Picks: Over/Under Plays to Back

Dave Golokhov

December 26th, 2018

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Quick Tips

• Bet Browns-Ravens under 40.5 with Karamba.
• Bet Jaguars-Texans under 40.5 with 888Sport.
• Bet Raiders-Chiefs over 54 with Betfair.
• Bet Bengals-Steelers under 46 with 888Sport.

It’s last call for the NFL’s regular season, which means it’s the last Sunday with a full menu of games to bet on for NFL betting enthusiasts. We’ve perused all 17 contests on the board to hone in on four good totals to bet. Here’s what we’re looking at for Week 17 over-under betting picks.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under Total: 40.5 with Karamba

The first meeting between the teams was an absolute grind and I expect similar things this time around. Of course, the dynamics have changed a lot from the first matchup, which resulted in a 12-9 win for Cleveland. Baker Mayfield and the Browns are rolling right now with wins in five of six, Gregg Williams is now the head coach and the team is playing with a lot of confidence.

As for the Ravens, they’ve also won five of six on the strength of their ground game. They pound the ball with Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon, and mix in passes to move the chains. They are leading the league in time of possession over the last six weeks.

Williams is a shrewd defensive mind, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls something out of his bag of tricks to try and stymie the Ravens running game and force Jackson to be a passer. As for the Browns offense-Ravens defense matchup, while Cleveland is playing well, the Ravens lead the league in points per game allowed at 17.5.

Opposing quarterbacks are completing a league-worst 58.7% against this defense and are posting an 80.7 quarterback rating – second worst in the NFL. This game should again be a grind and we should see an under. Bet on it with Karamba.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Over/Under Total: 40.5 with 888Sport

While the Texans need this game to seal the No. 3 seed in the AFC, I see the Jaguars as being able to drag them into an ugly, low-scoring affair. Houston’s offense just can’t run the ball right now as they’re averaging a paltry 66 rushing yards per game over their last three. That’s the worst number in that in the NFL over that span.

On the flip side, we have a Jags team that is absolutely pathetic at passing the football. They’re a one-trick pony with their running game but the Texans have the fourth-best run defense in the NFL. It should be difficult for them to move the football.

The under is 4-1 in the Jags last five road games and 17-7 in the Texans last 24 December games. Bet the under with 888Sport.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under Total: 54 with Betfair

We should be looking at an over in the Raiders-Chiefs showdown in Week 17. The first meeting between the teams produced 73 points and this time, we’re looking at a total in the mid-50s – the highest total on the board.

The Raiders offense has been playing well of late as Derek Carr has 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last 10 games. Meanwhile, Doug Martin just posted his first 100-yard rushing game in his last 40 outings. This team is able to move the ball as they’re averaging 23.3 points per game over their last six.

While not amazing, remember that this team was averaging 16.3 points per game before that.

As for Kansas City, facing the Raiders defense should be a walk in the park after facing two rugged defenses the last two weeks (the Chargers at home and the Seahawks on the road). The Chiefs should be able to walk up and down the field, score at will and regain some momentum before the postseason begins. Bet the over with Betfair.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under Total: 46 with 888Sport

We’re looking at a total that’s in the mid-40s in this game, but that seems too high. The sharp action seems to agree as this total opened at 48 and is down two points already.

To start, we might have weather issues. Secondly, the Steelers could be a bit flat after losing a critical game in New Orleans last week. Lastly, I’m not counting on the Bengals to do much in this game. They were basically shut out by Cleveland last week as the Bengals’ 18 points all came in the fourth quarter when the Browns called off the dogs.

Jeff Driskel has now played in five games and he’s averaging 164.8 passing yards per game. As long as the Steelers shut down Joe Mixon, the Bengals won’t be scoring much on Sunday. Bet the under with 888Sport.