Champion Hurdle Trends – Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 4th, 2019

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TOP 5 CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS

• Won in last three runs
• Won racing left-handed twice
• Won on galloping track
• Run at least twice that season
• Last ran no more than 80 days ago

Get the latest Champion Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Champion Hurdle?

On the trends, the 2019 Champion Hurdle shortlist consisted of Apple's Jade, Buveur D’Air, Melon and Sharjah - just one of that foursome filling the podium in the Cheltenham Festival's first championship race.

It was a rare trends bust for the Champion Hurdle as winner Espoir D'Allen hit two huge negative stats; no Grade 1 win and aged five. He did score well on trends otherwise, but could not be shortlisted for the win.

All-conquering Apple's Jade and two-time winner Buveur D'Air topped that list, the Willie Mullins-trained Sharjah coming in next, having all run in ‘Key Race Trends' (see below) contests. Melon had run in those races too, but was a tentative selection this time, having shown no form all season, but boasting that 2018 second and first-time cheekpieces.

He finished second again, Buveur D'Air falling and bringing down Sharjah, and Apple's Jade taking sixth in her second disappointing run at Cheltenham.

KEY CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Had won on three or more occasions on a galloping track
• Had won two or more races left-handed
• Were running within 80 days of their last start
• Finished in the first four last time out

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were aged between six and nine
• Had run no more than twice since last winning
• Had run in a Grade 1 contest
• Had five or more career runs over hurdles
• Last ran between 26 and 78 days ago
• Had run at least twice that season - winning at least once

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 162+
• Were aged no older than eight
• Had won, or were beaten no more than four lengths, in their race before the Champion Hurdle
• Wore no headgear

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Won last time out
• Had run at Cheltenham before
• Had won a Grade 1 - exceptions Espoir D'Allen & Rock On Ruby

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Were officially rated 154+
• Had run in five or more hurdle races
• Had won on a left-handed track
• Had won on a ‘very undulating’ track

29/30 placed horses

• Were officially rated 156+
• Had two or more seasonal starts to their name
• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Finished in the first four last time out

28/30 placed horses

• Had last run no more than 90 days before the Champion Hurdle
• Had last run in a hurdle race

26/30 placed horses

• Includes officially the highest-rated horse(s) in the race - five winning, five finishing third (the exceptions fell, finished fourth and sixth)

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Champion Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Champion Hurdle Preview

How Buveur D'Air Won 2018's Champion Hurdle

It was billed as a battle of the mares, but became a coming of age of 16/1 shot Espoir D'Allen, as he romped to a record 15-length win - the biggest Champion Hurdle-winning margin in history.

Just the second five-year-old to win the race, Espoir D'Allen had never been to Cheltenham before, but had been tested in Grade 1 company as a four-year-old. His campaign had been more lowkey since, so it was no surprise to see his odds so big.

3.30 CHELTENHAM – 2019 CHAMPION HURDLE RESULT

1. Espoir D'Allen 16/1
2. Melon 20/1
3. Silver Streak 80/1

Owner JP McManus had expected to win a third successive Champion Hurdle with Buveur D'Air, knocked off the favourite's perch by mares Apple's Jade and Laurina, but when he fell at the third hurdle, the race changed.

Melon, wearing first-time cheekpieces, had led the field in a change of tactics that bothered front-runner Apple's Jade. Her chance was long gone two flights out when Mark Walsh made his move on Espoir D'Allen.

He swung past Melon to lead and drew away to win by that impressive margin, 80/1 chance Silver Streak staying on best of the rest to be third, just a neck behind Melon. Laurina was fourth, leading home fellow mares Verdana Blue and Apple's Jade.

Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 - CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase