Oscars Betting 2019: Movers & Shakers After Nominations
Nominations for the 2019 Oscars were revealed this week, generating no shortage of intrigue as the fields took shape for all categories at the 91st Academy Awards.
With 10 nominations each, Netflix foreign-language film Roma and period comedy The Favourite stand to win biggest at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on February 24, but what's the competition like and what does the Oscars 2019 betting say?
Can Anything Stop Roma?
Way back at the start of awards season when the Oscars were but a twinkle in the gleam of a Golden Globes nod, Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga's film A Star Is Born was favourite to wipe the Oscars betting boards.
The film topped the Best Picture betting, Cooper and Gaga were favourites for the leading roles, and Cooper was a short price to land Best Director too, albeit the title and plot was doing the rounds for the fifth time in history.
However, Netflix's Roma, a cinematic tale about a live-in housekeeper in 1970s Mexico, complete with an amatuer actress plucked from obscurity for the lead role, has dominated, rising from from odds of 6/1 back in October to 10/11 favourite.
Oscars Best Picture Nominations & Betting
|Roma||Golden Globes Foreign Language Film & Best Director, Critic's Choice Best Picture, Best Director, Foreign Language Film & Best Cinematography||10/11|
|Green Book||Golden Globes Best Picture (Musical/Comedy), Best Screenplay||9/2|
|The Favourite||Golden Globes & Critic's Choice Best Actress (Comedy, Olivia Colman), Critic's Choice Best Acting Ensemble||10/1|
|A Star Is Born||Golden Globes & Critic's Choice Best Song (Shallow), Critic's Choice Best Actress (Lady Gaga)||10/1|
|Bohemian Rhapsody||Golden Globes Best Picture (Drama) & Best Actor (Drama, Rami Malek)||20/1|
|Black Panther||Critic's Choice Best Production Design, Costume Design & Visual Effects||40/1|
|Vice||Critic's Choice & Golden Globes Best Actor (Comedy, Christian Bale)||50/1|
Cooper Directed Nothing, Apparently
Best Director nominations are crucial to winning Best Picture, with only two films in Oscars history (Argo and Driving Miss Daisy) landing that title without a nod for its director.
That's bad news for Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born as although the film received a whopping eight Oscars nominations, Best Director was oddly not one of them.
Cooper got nods for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay, as well as the film getting nods for Best Actress, Supporting Actor, Song, Sound Mixing and Cinematography, but apparently the film directed itself.
Peter Farrelly's Green Book - second favourite in the Best Director betting - is in the same boat, as is Bryan Singer's Bohemian Rhapsody, and Ryan Coogler's Black Panther
Oscars Best Director Nominations & Betting
- Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) - 1/8 at Ladbrokes
- Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) - 10/1 at Unibet
- Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) - 25/1 at Ladbrokes
- Adam McKay (Vice) - 25/1 at Ladbrokes
- Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) - 40/1 at Unibet
Roma's director Alfonso Cuaron is therefore the overwhelming 1/8 favourite to win the Oscars Best Director betting, having already won titles at the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice Awards.
A new entrant to the market after nominations though is industry veteran Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, the 61-year-old earning his first Academy Awards Best Director nod having made his directorial debut way back in 1986.
Close Favourite For Academy First
There are two utterly Hollywood stories in the Oscars Best Actress betting; icon Glenn Close inches from a first Academy Award win, after 40 years of nominations, and amatuer actress Yalitza Aparicio, who before she met director Alfonso Cuaron was a teacher.
Close, who is the 4/9 favourite, has already won the Best Actress title at the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes Awards. Her nomination for the Oscar is her fourth for Best Actress, Close previously acheiving three unsuccessful Supporting Actress nods in the 1980s.
Oscars Best Actress Nominations & Betting
- Glenn Close (The Wife) - 4/9 at Ladbrokes
- Olivia Colman (The Favourite) - 4/1 at Coral
- Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) - 6/1 at Unibet
- Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) - 33/1 at 888 Sport
- Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) - 40/1 at Paddy Power
Despite being overlooked by the Academy Awards, she has won three Golden Globes, three Tony Awards, three Emmy Awards, two Satellite Awards, a Screen Actors Guild and now a Critic's Choice too.
Yalitza Aparicio is the 40/1 outsider, but has already achieved a huge win, becoming the first indigenious woman to be nomination for Best Actress at the Oscars, and just the second Mexican woman.
The 25-year-old is breaking down boundaries for Mexican actresses, having also been nominated for Best Actress at the Critic's Choie and Satellite Awards, as well as received the New Hollywood Actress Award at the Hollywood Film Awards in November.
Bale vs Malek In Clash Of Icons
There is little in the Oscars Best Actor betting between Christian Bale's depiction of hostile US vice president Dick Cheney in Vice and Rami Malek's performance as Queen front man Freddie Mercury in biopoc Bohemian Rhapsody.
In October, Bradley Cooper was the 4/6 favourite(!) to win Best Actor for his role in A Star Is Born, but after being snubbed at all the major awards as Bale and Malek shone, he is now available at odds of 8/1 pp.
Meanwhile, a battle between the two historic icons, Dick Cheney and Freddie Mercury, has begun, setting up the closest betting heat in the Oscars 2019 'Big Four', with Bale no bigger than 11/10 and Malek priced at 11/8.
Oscars Best Actor Nominations & Betting
- Christian Bale (Vice) - 11/10 at Paddy Power
- Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) - 11/8 at Coral
- Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) - 8/1 at Paddy Power
- Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) - 25/1 at Coral
- Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) - 40/1 at Paddy Power
What other Oscars 2019 betting markets are there?
Now that nominations are revealed, you can bet on any Oscars 2019 category, from Best Supporting Actress, to Best Sound Mixing, to Editing, Documentary, and Visual Effects.
Most of these betting markets are dominated by odds-on favourites, but here are some of the more competitive smaller Oscars betting markets out there:
Best Original Screenplay Betting
- The Favourite - 11/8 at Coral
- Green Book - 2/1 at Ladbrokes
- Roma - 7/2 at Coral
- First Reformed - 9/1 at Bet365
- Vice - 16/1 at Ladbrokes
Best Supporting Actress Betting
- Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) - 1/2 at Paddy Power
- Amy Adams (Vice) - 2/1 at Ladbrokes
- Emma Stone (The Favourite) - 16/1 at Bet365
- Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) - 20/1 at Paddy Power
- Marina De Tavira (Roma) - 33/1 at Paddy Power
Best Adapted Screenplay Betting
(Best odds all available at Coral)
- BlacKkKlansman - 1/2
- If Beale Street Could Talk - 9/4
- A Star Is Born - 8/1
- Can You Ever Forgive Me - 10/1
- The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs - 25/1
The Biggest Oscars Betting Favourites
If you're looking for the biggest favourites in the Oscars odds, look no further. Of course, up in the 'Big Four' Roma and Alfonso Cuaron are fairly skinny prices, but down in the smaller categories there's a 1/20 shot.
Here's all the favourites for those lesser-bet-on Academy Awards shortlists:
|Best Supporting Actor favourite - Mahershala Ali (4/9 Coral)||Best Makeup - Vice (1/10 Coral)||Best Animated Feature favourite - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (1/8 Coral)|
|Best Cinematography favourite - Roma (1/12 Coral)||Best Foreign Language Film favourite - Roma (1/10 Coral)||Best Sound Editing - First Man (1/3 Ladbrokes)|
|Best Visual Effects favourite - Avengers: Infinity Way (1/12 William Hill)||Best Original Song favourite - Shallow (A Star Is Born) (1/20 Bet365)||Best Animated Short Film - Bao (1/10 Ladbrokes)|
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