Paddy Power Chase 2018 Betting Tips, Odds & Trends
Leopardstown's Paddy Power Chase is Thursday's cavalry charge for the stayers at the Christmas Festival, with a host of stamina kings vying for favouritism.
The 3m 1/2f test remains uber competitive with a rating cap of 150 keeping the weights compact, and it's still 8/1 the field in the Paddy Power Chase betting, with 48 entries left in, and 28 runners set to go to post - look out for bookmakers offering to pay out on five places after declarations!
Is There A Trends Winner?
The Paddy Power Chase trends show you are not looking for an exposed type to win Leopardstown's €200,000 handicap. Each of the last 10 winners had won no more than two chases, and 8/10 had run in no more than three handicaps - 10/10 running in no more than seven.
But they had all won a chase and they had all run in a handicap, with all 10 winners having run a minimum of eight times over fences and none more than 12.
Paddy Power Chase 2018 Trends
- 10/10 had won 1-2 chases
- 10/10 did not win on their last run
- 8/10 had no more than 3 handicap chase starts, 6/10 ran in only 1 handicap chase
- 8/10 had 4-8 runs over fences
- 8/10 finished in first four last time out, without winning
- 8/10 were aged 7-9
- 7/10 were rated 130+, the 3 exceptions were rated 124-125.
- 7/10 Carried 10st 11lb or less, 2/3 who carried more than 11st had Grade 1 form, and had been placed at at least Grade 2 level.
- 7/10 had run in chases of 2m7f or more up to 4 times. 2 exceptions, never ran beyond 3m
- 1/10 topweights won
The last two winners - Anibale Fly and Noble Endeavor - were the first to carry more than 10st 11lb to victory since topweight Majestic Concorde won in 2010, showing high-class horses can win, if generously weighted, as both had Grade 1 form.
There is a short-list of five after applying these trends - Livelovelaugh, Minella Beau, Burren Life, Dounikos, Blazer, Snugsborough Benny - Burren Life (25/1 Coral) really standing out for Gigginstown House Stud and trainer Gordon Elliott.
The Troytown Handicap Chase has been a good guide to the Paddy Power Chase, and this six-year-old lines up after being third in that race off the same handicap mark of 132. He isn't guaranteed to get into the race, as number four on the ballot, but that's why he's 25/1.
Paddy Power Chase 2018 Favourites
Last season's Leinster National winner Pairofbrowneyes (8/1 Coral hasn't run since falling at the fifth fence in the Irish Grand National last April, but is well-fancied to make amends at Leopardstown as one of two favourites in the Paddy Power Chase betting.
The nine-year-old is booked to carry 11st 7lb though, and the trends clearly show that a horse needs more class than he has shown to shoulder that in the Paddy Power Chase. His fellow favourite De Name Escapes Me (8/1 888 Sport) carries a full stone less, getting into the race by winning a valuable 2m4f handicap chase at Navan last time out.
It was a canny ride by Niall Madden, dropping the eight-year-old on the line to win, having not run over fences for more than a year. That was his first chase win, and he appeared to have more in hand, but the handicapper fully noticed and it would be an impressive achievement for him to overcome a rise of 14lb.
That day's second Solomn Grundy (12/1 Bet365) is also a short price in the Paddy Power Chase betting, and has been left unchanged in the handicap following a half-length second to favourite De Name Escapes Me last time out.
He's far from guaranteed a run as number 11 on the ballot, but shapes as the best bet from the top of the betting, while Isleofhopenddreams (14/1 Bet365) needs further and Black Scorpion (16/1 William Hill) was well-held after a ratings hike last time out, and has gone up further.
Paddy Power Chase 2018 Best Bet
With the top five in the Paddy Power Chase betting offering little appeal, we're instead going for the best bet under 20/1, where no fewer than three live chances exist.
The Willie Mullins-trained Blazer (16/1 Ladbrokes) finished second in the Galway Hurdle in August, having signed off last season with a fourth in a novice handicap chase at Fairyhouse. It was the seven-year-old's first run for almost a year, an injury after he'd won his first chase at Punchestown in May, 2017 keeping him off the track.
Quickening ground would be off-putting for backers of this Kerry National eighth though, so maybe Galway festival winner Snugsborough Benny (16/1 BetVictor) is a better bet?
The eight-year-old won his first chase at Down Royal in May, then following up in his second handicap chase at Galway in August. He's gone up a standard 8lb in the weight for that win and returned from an autumn break to be 9th in a handicap hurdle three weeks ago.
If not him, then definitely Fitzhenry (16/1 Coral), provided he doesn't switch to the shorter Tim Duggan Memorial at Limerick. The six-year-old showed bags of stamina to be third over 3m5f at Fairyhouse on his first chase start of the season last time out, and has already won a handicap chase, finishing second and third in his other two.
That makes his record one win and three placings from four handicap chase outings, all over 2m4f-3m5f, with many of them on testing ground, but the latest on good.
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