RSA Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 7th, 2019

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TOP 5 RSA CHASE TRENDS

• Finished first two in one of last three starts
• Won, or beaten no more than three lengths, last time out
• Last ran no more than 39 days ago
• Placed at Cheltenham before
• Officially rated 144+

Get the latest RSA Novices Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win RSA Chase Last Year?

The RSA Chase trends were a rare bust in 2018 as the shortlist consisted of Al Boum Photo, Ballyoptic and Monalee, of which only the latter could muster a decent run to finish second to Cheltenham betting favourite Presenting Percy.

In defence of the trends, the winner had taken an unusual (though traditional once upon a time) route to the race, never tackling a Grade 1 chase before his Cheltenham Festival test, nor winning any Graded race over fences.

His last two runs before the Festival came in a Grade 2 hurdle, which he won, and an open Grade 2 chase against older horses, which he was second in, both run on heavy ground.

Our RSA Chase trends trio were Grade 1 winners, if not over fences, over hurdles, though in hindsight lacked the experience Presenting Percy had, and were perhaps not as proven, the dour stayer having landed a 3m5f handicap chase off topweight.

KEY RSA CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Finished in the first three last time out
• Had run up to seven times in the last 12 months, including 3-6 times that season
• Last ran no more than 75 days ago, the majority last running within 39 days

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 144+
• Were GB or Irish bred
• Were aged between six and eight
• Had run in 2-5 novice chases
• Had run in a Graded race
• Had run at Cheltenham before and at least placed
• Had won at 1-3 chases, and had won racing left-handed
• Had two or more wins on a galloping track
• Won, or were beaten no more than 3 lengths, last time out

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged seven to eight
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase no more than 39 days ago
• Had run at Cheltenham before, 6/10 winning
• Had won no more than 2 chases

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• We aged six or older
• Had run in no more than five novice chases
• Had won on a left-handed track

29/30 placed horses

• Had an SP up to 20/1
• Were officially rated 142+

28/30 placed horses

• Had won on a left-handed track

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the RSA Novices’ Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour RSA Chase Preview

How Presenting Percy Won 2018’s RSA Chase

The horse racing press heralded the arrival of a new star in the jumping ranks as Presenting Percy galloped up the Cheltenham hill to win his second Festival race by a mighty seven lengths.

The highest rated horse in the race at 158, Presenting Percy took up the running between the third and second-last fences under jockey Davy Russell and justified favouritism to win at 5/2.

2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2018 RSA NOVICES' CHASE RESULT

1. Presenting Percy 5/2f
2. Monalee 100/30
3. Elegant Escape 9/1

A year earlier the Pat Kelly-trained seven-year-old had won the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at 11/1, and since he had run four times over fences, winning a beginners' chase at Galway, and the 3m5f Porterstown Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse off topweight.

Having won on fast ground the previous year, and soft to heavy all winter in Ireland, the unseasonably wet weather approaching the Festival was of no concern to owner Philip Reynolds, who watched on as his Presenting Percy announced his Cheltenham Gold Cup credentials.

The gallant Monalee finished second for trainer Henry De Bromhead, with the improving youngster Elegant Escape a further seven lengths back in third.

Cheltenham 2019 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 - RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper