RSA Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

RSA Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting


  • Won, or beaten no more than three lengths, last time out
  • Won twice or more on galloping track
  • Won on a left-handed track
  • Placed at Cheltenham before
  • Won 3m chase or hurdle

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Festival Novices' Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Festival Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Festival Novices' Chase (formerly RSA Chase), taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Festival Novices' Chase, as they did last year when highlighting Topofthegame.

Scroll down to find out how the trends found him last year, and read full details of all the other RSA Chase trends, beyond the top five.

Get the latest RSA Chase Odds here

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. Place £10, Get £40 in Free Bets + £10 on Casino
    Promo Code: 10FREE

  2. Bet £10 , Get £20*

  3. Bet £100 Get £100 in Free Bets, 100% in Boosts & 10 Extra Spins

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. Terms Apply New users only. Free Bets: place qual bets of £10-100 (min odds 1/2, 2+ legs) in 1st 7 days to unlock. Awarded as 4 equal free bets that total 1st deposit amount. Min odds 1/1, 3+ legs, + expire in 7 days. Odds boosts: Crediting relies on marketing comms opt-in. Credited on each of 1st 5 days following deposit. Extra spins credited unlocked. Winnings credited in cash. Full T&Cs Apply. Visit Site

Did Trends Win The Last RSA Chase?

Since this race became classified as a Grade 1 in 1991 every single winner completed their last race before the Festival Novices' Chase, just two of those 28 winners finishing outside the first two.

So whilst winner Champ ticked many Key Trends, he did not make the very short shortlist for the 2020 renewal.

Minella Indo, who finished second, ticked every 'Top 5' trend, crucially being a Cheltenham Festival winner, and a winner last time out.

Third-placed Allaho, who was sent off 5/2 favourite in the Cheltenham betting, was a more tentative selection, having never won racing left-handed, and only one once on a track described as galloping.

He was trained by top race trainer Willie Mullins though, and had finished third at the previous Cheltenham Festival to Minella Indo.



The last 15 winners…

  • Finished in the first three last time out
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Had run up to seven times in the last 12 months, including at least twice that season
  • Last ran no more than 77 days ago, the majority last running within 39 days


The last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 144+
  • Were GB or Irish bred
  • Had run in 2-5 novice chases
  • Had run in a Graded race
  • Had run at Cheltenham before and at least placed
  • Had two or more wins on a galloping track

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Won, or were beaten no more than 3 lengths, last time out
  • Had won over at least 3m before; 8/10 winning over fences
  • Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase
  • Had run at Cheltenham before, 5/10 winning
  • Had won no more than 2 chases
  • Had won on a left-handed track

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

  • Were aged six or older
  • Were officially rated 142+
  • Had run in no more than five novice chases

28/30 placed horses

  • Had won on a left-handed track
BrandSports with Antepost BettingCash OutSpecial BetsAntepost Multis?Visit Site
21 Yes Yes Yes
22 Yes Yes Yes
21 Yes Yes Yes

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the RSA Novices’ Chase)

Key Race RacecourseMonth Winners Place Finishers
Flogas Novice Chase (G1) LeopardstownFebruary Lord Windermere (2013), Bostons Angel (2011) Monalee (2018), Bellshill (2017), Lyreen Legend (2013), Call The Police (2012)
Towton Novices' Chase (G2) WetherbyFebruary Blaklion (2016), Bobs Worth (2012) Wayward Prince (2011)
Nevilles Hotel Novice Chase (G1) LeopardstownDecember Don Poli (2015) Delta Work (2019), Morning Assembly (2014) First Lieutenant (2012)
Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (G1) AscotFebruary Ofaolains Boy (2014) None
Kauto Star Novices' Chase (G1) KemptonDecember Topofthegame (2019) Santini (2019)
Dipper Novices' Chase (G2) CheltenhamJanuary Champ (2020) None


Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L Places
Nicky Henderson 11 3 27 4.00 3
Jessica Harrington 1 1 100 17.00 -
Paul Nicholls 10 1 10 -6.00 1
Willie Mullins 17 1 6 -13.37 4
Gordon Elliott 5 0 - -5.00 2

How Champ Won 2020’s Festival Novices' Chase

In as rousing a finish as Cheltenham can muster, Champ made up more than eight lengths after the last fence to beat a tiring Minella Indo

by one length.

Trained by top race trainer Nicky Henderson, he had fallen last time out, and threatened to do so again at the penultimate flight, but jockey Barry Geraghty kept him steady, and when all seemed lost, he never gave up.


  1. Champ 4/1
  2. Minella Indo 3/1
  3. Allaho 5/2f

Allaho, who had pressed leader Minella Indo for much of the race, was still in contention over the last, but faded to finished third, a length behind Minella Indo.

Battleoverdoyen was a very distant fourth, with 100-1 chance Aye Right and 13 lengths back in fifth. Slate House was the only other runner to finish.

Cheltenham 2021 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 - Festival Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup


16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Champion Bumper

Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. Place £10, Get £40 in Free Bets + £10 on Casino
    Promo Code: 10FREE

  2. EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10

  3. Get up to £100 in Bet Credits!

  4. Bet £10, Get £10 Free Bet

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. Terms Apply New players only. The qualifying bets to claim the Free Bet must have minimum odds of 3/1 (4.00) or higher and must be settled before triggering free bet. 18+. - Full Terms Apply Visit Site
  5. Deposit £10 Get £10 Free Bet

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. Terms Apply 18+. T&C Apply Visit Site
  6. Bet £10 Get £20

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. Terms Apply The Promotion operates as a £/€20 Surprise Bet when you place a bet of at least £/€10 on any market with odds greater than or equal to 1.50 as your first bet. The Promotion runs from 09/08/2021 / 12:00 (BST) until 31/12/2021 / 12:00 (BST) (the “Promotional Period”). The Promotion is only valid to: (a) new customers; (b) customers aged 18 years or over. To qualify for the Promotion, participant must deposit and place a £/€10 bet as their first bet on any market (excluding each way) in the sportsbook with odds greater than or equal to 1.50. Only original odds count toward the promotion. Supercharged odds do not count towards the promotion. An accumulation of smaller stakes will not count. Cashed out bets do not count towards this promotion. Only available once per customer. Rewards will be credited to qualifying participants within 48 hours after placing the qualifying bet. Potential winnings from the Surprise Bet are paid in withdrawable cash, excluding the stake. This offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer. Visit Site
  7. Welcome bonus bet £10 Get £15

  8. Bet £10, Get £10 + 50 Extra Spins

  9. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. Terms Apply 18+. Full T&C’s Apply. New customers on mobile only. 7 days to claim and stake £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater to qualify. Free, void, cashed out or partially cashed out bets do not qualify. Max 3x £10 free bets credited on bet settlement. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 or greater. Free bets are non-withdrawable and stake not returned with winnings. 7 day expiry. Visit Site
  10. Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles