RSA Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 5th, 2021

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BEST 2021 FESTIVAL NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

• Won, or beaten no more than three lengths, last time out
• Won twice or more on galloping track
• Won on a left-handed track
• Placed at Cheltenham before
• Won 3m chase or hurdle

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Festival Novices' Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Festival Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Festival Novices' Chase (formerly RSA Chase), taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Festival Novices' Chase, as they did last year when highlighting Topofthegame.

Scroll down to find out how the trends found him last year, and read full details of all the other RSA Chase trends, beyond the top five.

Get the latest RSA Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last RSA Chase?

Since this race became classified as a Grade 1 in 1991 every single winner completed their last race before the Festival Novices' Chase, just two of those 28 winners finishing outside the first two.

So whilst winner Champ ticked many Key Trends, he did not make the very short shortlist for the 2020 renewal.

Minella Indo, who finished second, ticked every 'Top 5' trend, crucially being a Cheltenham Festival winner, and a winner last time out.

Third-placed Allaho, who was sent off 5/2 favourite in the Cheltenham betting, was a more tentative selection, having never won racing left-handed, and only one once on a track described as galloping.

He was trained by top race trainer Willie Mullins though, and had finished third at the previous Cheltenham Festival to Minella Indo.

KEY RSA CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Finished in the first three last time out
• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Had run up to seven times in the last 12 months, including at least twice that season
• Last ran no more than 77 days ago, the majority last running within 39 days

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 144+
• Were GB or Irish bred
• Had run in 2-5 novice chases
• Had run in a Graded race
• Had run at Cheltenham before and at least placed
• Had two or more wins on a galloping track

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Won, or were beaten no more than 3 lengths, last time out
• Had won over at least 3m before; 8/10 winning over fences
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase
• Had run at Cheltenham before, 5/10 winning
• Had won no more than 2 chases
• Had won on a left-handed track

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Were aged six or older
• Were officially rated 142+
• Had run in no more than five novice chases

28/30 placed horses

• Had won on a left-handed track

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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the RSA Novices’ Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Champ Won 2020’s Festival Novices' Chase

In as rousing a finish as Cheltenham can muster, Champ made up more than eight lengths after the last fence to beat a tiring Minella Indo

Trained by top race trainer Nicky Henderson, he had fallen last time out, and threatened to do so again at the penultimate flight, but jockey Barry Geraghty kept him steady, and when all seemed lost, he never gave up.

2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2020 FESTIVAL NOVICES' CHASE RESULT

1. Champ 4/1
2. Minella Indo 3/1
3. Allaho 5/2f

Allaho, who had pressed leader Minella Indo for much of the race, was still in contention over the last, but faded to finished third, a length behind Minella Indo.

Battleoverdoyen was a very distant fourth, with 100-1 chance Aye Right and 13 lengths back in fifth. Slate House was the only other runner to finish.

Cheltenham 2021 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 - Festival Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Champion Bumper