RSA Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 7th, 2019

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TOP 5 RSA CHASE TRENDS

• Won, or beaten no more than three lengths, last time out
• Won twice or more on galloping track
• Won on a left-handed track
• Placed at Cheltenham before
• Won 3m chase or hurdle

Get the latest RSA Novices Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last RSA Chase?

There were three horses on the RSA Chase trends shortlist for 2019, and that included the winner and third.

Having won a 'Key Race' (see below), along with already being at Cheltenham Festival winner, the six-year-old Delta Work was an ideal trends pick, if a year younger than the optimum seven, however he was not strong enough for Topofthegame and Santini.

Santini had been beaten too far last time out to make the trends list, but Topofthegame had been a length and a half second in a Grade 1 over 3m, marking him out as a key contender. It was against trends that he had not won a chase, but he had been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before, had won over 3m over hurdles, and twice on galloping tracks.

At 155, he also had officially the highest rating in the field, along with Delta Work and The Worlds End. The third horse highlighted by trends was On The Blind Side, like Santini, hailing from top RSA Chase trainer Nicky Henderson.

He was not the strongest tip, having been well-beaten in Graded company two runs ago, but did win over 3m on his latest run, and was a course winner over hurdles. At 14/1 in the Cheltenham betting he was an each-way chance, but was never travelling and pulled up on the soft ground.

KEY RSA CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Finished in the first three last time out
• Had run up to seven times in the last 12 months, including at least twice that season
• Last ran no more than 77 days ago, the majority last running within 39 days

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 144+
• Were GB or Irish bred
• Had run in 2-5 novice chases
• Had run in a Graded race
• Had run at Cheltenham before and at least placed
• Had two or more wins on a galloping track
• Won, or were beaten no more than 3 lengths, last time out

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Had won over at least 3m before; eight winning over fences
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase
• Had run at Cheltenham before, 6/10 winning
• Had won no more than 2 chases
• Had won on a left-handed track

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Were aged six or older
• Were officially rated 142+
• Had run in no more than five novice chases

29/30 placed horses

• Had won on a left-handed track

28/30 placed horses

• Had won on a left-handed track

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the RSA Novices’ Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour RSA Chase Preview

How Topofthegame Won 2019’s RSA Chase

Topofthegame won his first ever chase when galloping past Santini to win the 2019 RSA Novices' Chase under jockey Harry Cobden.

Trained by Paul Nicholls, and carrying the green colours of owner Paul Barber made famous by Gold Cup winner Denman, the seven-year-old had been second on his two previous runs over fences, the latest in a 3m Grade 1.

2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 RSA NOVICES' CHASE RESULT

1. Topofthegame 4/1
2. Santini 3/1
3. Delta Work 15/8f

It had been an odd year for novice hurdlers and chasers in particular, as ground conditions had prevented many from running for most of the winter, meaning they either went to Cheltenham with few runs, or did not got at all.

Topofthegame was among those who had been hampered by fast ground, but he made no mistakes up the Cheltenham hill to win by half a length over Santini, the 15/8 favourite Delta Work finishing third.

Cheltenham 2020 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 - RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper