The New Orleans Saints (10-1) enter Week 13 atop the NFC and on a 10-game winning streak. They are the hottest team in the NFL and look poised to make a Super Bowl run to Atlanta. They are led by quarterback Drew Brees, who is putting together another MVP-caliber season.
However, with the Los Angeles Rams sitting at 10-1 as well, the Saints can't afford a slip-up anywhere. They need the NFC to run through New Orleans.
While the Saints are as hot as it gets, the Cowboys (6-5) are on a little run of their own. They’ve won three straight games and have covered in all three. The biggest reason for their most recent success has been the addition of wide receiver Amari Cooper.
The over/under total for this week is at 53.5 with 888Sport. That is the highest over/under for a Cowboys’ game this season (50 at Atlanta). Considering that Dallas has one of the better defenses in the league and that they will likely try to control the clock against New Orleans, expect this game to go under slightly.
For the Saints, there are some injuries to monitor on their offense. Left tackle Terron Armstead may not be available for Drew Brees. Backup Jermon Bushrod would continue to take his place if Armstead can’t go. Wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith missed last week’s game against Atlanta, but he will likely return in Week 13.
Bettors should monitor the health of Smith’s, Tyron and Tre’Quan before betting on this game.
Since the team traded for Cooper, they are averaging 23.5 points per game, up from 20 points in the first seven games of the season. And if Cooper can help Dallas get a playoff berth in 2018, the move will have already paid for itself.
That said, there will be many points scored, but there have been a combined 50 points scored in a Cowboys’ game just once this season. Dallas is pretty good at keeping the score down, and that's why I'm recommending taking under, especially with the Saints playing on the road and Dallas dealing with a few big injuries on offense. Bet the under with 888Sport.
Since both sides have had a week to prepare, the Thursday home-field advantage might not make as big of a difference as it usually does. The Saints are the better team, and the Cowboys have some significant injuries to some of their most important players.
Dallas will likely be without All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith as he continues to heal from a stinger that he suffered in Week 11. Cameron Fleming is expected to start in his place. Dallas will also be without tight end Geoff Swaim and receiver Tavon Austin once again. Those three losses on offense could hurt Dallas if this game ends up being a shootout.
On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas will be without the services of Sean Lee and David Irving once again. While this defense has performed well without them, they haven’t played an offense anywhere near as explosive as the Saints.
If you are going to bet against the spread this week, I would take the Saints -7.5. I do worry about the Cowboys backdoor coving at home, and that's why instead I am recommending parlaying the Saints’ moneyline and under 53.5 at +155 with 888Sport.
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