Samcro Conundrum Continues In Fighting Fifth Hurdle Betting
Three Cheltenham Festival heroes clash in Saturday's Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, all seeking to stake their claim on the Champion Hurdle crown, including present wearer: Buveur D'Air.
JP McManus's star is setting out on a path to win the Champion Hurdle for a third successive year, and heads the ante-post markets to do so. He is the champion until proven otherwise, but the Fighting Fifth Hurdle betting suggests he could have competition this weekend in the shape of two Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle winners.
Who will win the Fighting Fifth Hurdle?
It's not a question of who will win the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, but rather who won't. It takes some imagination and faith in equine improvement to consider a winner other than Buveur D'Air (11/10f Paddy Power), however, there are two horses who may and that's worth exploring.
- What has Samcro beaten? Samcro's Fighting Fifth Hurdle odds of no bigger than 2/1 (Coral) say he is Buveur D'Air's biggest rival, but does that mean he can beat the dual Champion Hurdle winner? Here's a look at what Samcro has beaten:
- Maiden Hurdle: Mind's Eye by 15 lengths - went on to win a maiden and handicap hurdle, beating Quick Grabim, who went on to win a Grade 3, and Darkest Flyer - yet to run again. Mind's Eye recently won beginner's chase.
- Grade 3: Jetz by 12 lengths - went on to be well-beaten by Next Destination three times, and Pallasator once, and was beaten a head by Tower Bridge. Remains a one-time hurdle winner, but recently won first chase. Next Destination was beaten nearly 8 lengths by Samcro at Cheltenham.
- Grade 1: Duc Des Genievres by 5.5 lengths - went on to be well-beaten in two Grade 1s and a Grade 2. Third Paloma Blue was fourth in Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but well-beaten at Punchestown and in chase debut.
- Cheltenham: Black Op by 2.75 lengths - went on to win Grade 1 over similar trip at Aintree, beating Lostintranslation by 0.5 lengths, that rival having been 7th in Supreme over shorter. Still only won a maiden hurdle. Third Next Destination, a Navan Grade 1 winner, went on to win 3m Grade 1 at Punchestown beating Pertemps Final winner Delta Work by a neck - he has since won beginner's chase.
- What has Summerville Boy beaten? Summerville Boy's Fighting Fifth Hurdle odds of 5/1 (Bet365) place him third in the betting. Like Samcro, he's a Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle winner seeking to step up. Unusually the first hurdle he won was a Grade 1. Here's a look at what Summerville Boy has beaten:
- Grade 1: Kalashnikov by 4 lengths - went on to win Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Newbury.
- Cheltenham: Kalashnikov by a neck - went on to win chase debut by 11 lengths. Third Mengli Khan was Grade 1 winner, who went on to be 3rd in equivalent Punchestown race. Fourth Paloma Blue has been well-beaten twice since.
In summary, Samcro won four races last season, beating 47 different horses. Of them, 27 had won, 16 going on to win, or win again, including in two Grade 1s and a Grade 2.
Summerville Boy beat 31 different horses in three lifetime wins. Of them, 20 were winners, 9 going on to win, or win again, including a Grade 1 and Grade 2. The horses Samcro has beaten have won 87 races across all codes, or an average of 1.85. Those in Summerville Boy's wake have won 65 races - an average of 2.1.
Best Bet in Fighting Fifth Hurdle
That analysis probably brings you no closer to betting against Buveur D'Air in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle odds. He is rated upwards of 9lbs superior to the young pretenders, won the Grade 1 last year, and is on a winning streak of 10.
There are likely to be only five runners, so place terms for each-way bets on the Fighting Fifth Hurdle will be two places at 1/4 the odds. The reality is that Buveur D'Air will never be bigger than the 11/10f offered by Paddy Power now, and if you can bet at those odds, do.
But if you are still a believer in Samcro being the second-coming, he is NOT going to be odds-on for the first time in his entire racing career.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Bet £10 Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365
Bet £10, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
50% Deposit Bonus up to £100 Promo Code: FBWELS18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New UK customers only; 6x wager requirement with 90 day expiry; Only sports bets contribute to wagering; Min. 2 selections at 1.4 min odds per selection; Max £100 per bet. 18+. T&C's Apply. Please bet responsibly. begambleaware.org
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.