Sergey Kovalev vs. Eleider Alvarez Betting Tips And Preview

Sergey Kovalev vs. Eleider Alvarez Betting Tips And Preview

Quick Tips:


WBO light heavyweight titleholder Sergey Kovalev battles Colombian-born contender Eleider Alvarez on Saturday, Aug. 4 at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Kovalev vs. Alvarez will be presented live on HBO in the U.S. starting at 10 pm E.T. as part of its World Championship Boxing series.

Kovalev (32-2-1, 28 KOs) is a heavy favorite in the fight. Top boxing betting sites list the 35-year-old Russian anywhere between -500 and -600 on the outright win market with the 34-year-old Alvarez (23-0, 11 KOs) following suit between +300 and +400.

Kovalev Remains An Elite Fighter

Kovalev has been one of the best fighters in boxing over the last five years, winning every fight except the two consecutive times he lost to Andre Ward in September 2016 and June 2017. Ward is a once-in-a-generation type of fighter who Kovalev admittedly (and amazingly perhaps) didn’t take as seriously as he should have, and even if he had, it’s hard to envision a scenario where a prime version of Ward takes a loss in a prizefight between 168 and 175 pounds.

Kovalev fought Ward to a standstill in the first bout. Some fight observers even believe the Russian deserved the nod over the American from the ringside judges. But Ward won the second fight more convincingly and stopped Kovalev in eight round.

Kovalev subsequently ditched trainer John David Jackson for countryman Artur Tursunpulatov, who Kovalev likes more because Tursunpulatov speaks Russian and prefers more aggressive on offense than did Jackson. Moreover, the losses to Ward seem to have reinvigorated Kovalev’s lifestyle outside the ring to the point where he’s fully engaged in training to be the very best fighter he can be. He’s scored two stoppage wins over fringe contenders Vyacheslav Shabranskyy and Igor Mikhalkin, and looks to be fighting in his best form.

Alvarez Stands Solid But Unspectacular

Alvarez has been the No. 1 contender to Adonis Stevenson’s WBC light heavyweight title but has chosen step-aside money in lieu of making the fight. That usually happens when a fighter’s handlers knows their man isn’t capable of winning, so it makes little sense to back Alvarez over any legitimately elite light heavyweight.

Alvarez is coming off a 14-month layoff. He barely snuck by former titleholder Jean Pascal in his last fight, a fighter Kovalev knocked out twice when Pascal was in better form. Alvarez looked great in February 2017 against Lucian Bute, but Bute was overrated at peak form and has been relegated to the realm of domestic contenders since suffering his first loss to Carl Froch way back in 2012.

That’s bad news for Alvarez, the undefeated contender fighting out of Canada. Alvarez is a good boxer. He’s a careful stylist capable of knocking his opponents out with one punch if he lands right on the button, but that’s a pretty tall order against a fighter as skilled as Kovalev. Alvarez just isn’t the same level of fighter as Kovalev, and will likely find himself in very deep waters on Saturday night.

Kovalev Vs. Alvarez Betting Strategy

The televised undercard features WBA light heavyweight titleholder Dmitry Bivol facing veteran title challenger Isaac Chilemba. That’s important information because television networks and promoters often make showcase bouts for fighters they wish to pit against each other in the near future, and they go to pretty great lengths to make sure the money fighters don’t spoil the bigger promotion by losing beforehand.

Such is the case with this card. Boxing betting strategy reaffirms Kovalev as the favorite in a big way and Bivol in an even bigger way. There’s nary a high-value bet to place on either Russian to win by any result, and there’s really nothing in either opponent’s history to suggest the bookies are wrong.

Kovalev will probably stop Alvarez. Alvarez has been hit too clean by lesser opponents, and Kovalev’s power is significantly more than the power of any other fighter Alvarez has faced. The only real question heading into the fight is when the end will come. Some get a taste of Kovalev’s thudding punches and go to the mat pretty quickly. Others stick around and get pummelled into submission by an accumulation of punches. It’s always hard to gauge how an undefeated fighter like Alvarez will react when facing the end of feeling invincible.

Best Bets For Kovalev vs. Alvarez

In Kovalev’s last 10 stoppage wins, the average duration of the fight has been 4.5 rounds. Over that stretch, which starts with Kovalev’s third round knockout of Cornelius White in 2013, Kovalev is 12-2 with 10 knockouts. The two losses came against the previously mentioned Ward. Regardless, the only fighters not named Ward to survive a bout against Kovalev were Bernard Hopkins in 2014 and Isaac Chilemba in 2016. Hopkins is one of the craftiest fighters in boxing history, and Chilemba is renowned in the sport for his toughness and ability to get through fights he’s losing.

In short, this is not a fight to bet to go the distance.

The easiest money on the board comes from Ladbrokes. There you can split your money evenly between two round group options with Kovalev in rounds 1-6 at +260 and Kovalev in rounds 6-12 at +200. That pays an okay return no matter when Kovalev knocks Alvarez out, so in my mind it’s as close to free money as exists.

Still, some people like more risk and higher returns, so for me that’s loading up on the first option or something like Ladbrokes +1600 option for Kovalev in round 4. Alvarez has been a decent contender over the course of his career, but the way he’s been cautiously handled makes me think he’s more show pony than racehorse.

Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY50

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering. Visit Site
  2. Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus

  3. Bet £10 Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply Visit Site
  4. Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org Visit Site
  5. Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365

  6. Bet £10, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs Visit Site
  7. EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply Visit Site
  8. Bet £10, Get £10 + 50 Extra Spins

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New customer offer; Place first £10 bet on sports with 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spins credited after the qualifying bet has settled; Free Multiple Bet must contain 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spin stakes not returned; No wagering requirements on winnings; £200 max win; T&C’s apply; 18+ Visit Site
  9. Bet £20, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org Visit Site
  10. Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware Visit Site
alert Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Media Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2021 GDC Media Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Media Limited.
Terms and Conditions  |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4 Android GET IT ON facebook Download_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917 twitter
×