Should You Bet on Boris Johnson Becoming the Tory Leader?

Quick Odds:
- Boris Johnson for Next Tory Leader - 9/2 at Bet365
- Sajid Javid for Next Tory Leader - 6/1 at Coral
- Michael Gove for Next Tory Leader - 8/1 at William Hill
He’s on the TV. He’s in the papers, from broadsheets to red-tops. He’s leading nearly every radio bulletin and is the subject of much political betting. Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is everywhere in political news right now – whether it be for his private life or public views, and it doesn’t take much to figure out that he wants the top job – Number 10 Downing Street.
But should we put our money where his mouth is?
How Does a Tory Leadership Contest Work?
Well, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways:
- If 15% of Conservative Members of Parliament (MPs) write to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee saying they no longer have confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party, or
- If the current leader resigns
Then there are two stages:
- Conservative MPs select a choice of two candidates to present to the membership of the whole Party.
- Party members vote, on a "one member one vote" basis, for their preferred candidate from a shortlist of two
When Does This All Take Place?
1922 Chair Graham Brady must receive 48 letters to start proceedings. Now the Parliamentary party is close to that limit, spurred on by the backlash to the Chequers deal, but there are many reasons to think that this is a longer-term event.
Negotiations with the EU are coming to a close, and it looks to be very unlikely that May will be forced out before those end, regardless of whether they have a deal or not.
There’s also the matter of the No Confidence vote. Whilst one needs ‘only’ 48 MPs to trigger a No Confidence vote, but 158 MPs must vote against her to trigger the leadership election and should she survive, that would put the brakes on any ambitions for at least a year (in terms of leadership elections).
The Case for Johnson
The grassroots. Should he get to the final two, Johnson would be the strong favourite against any likely opponent. According to the latest polling from Conservative Home, the grassroots Tory website, Johnson is favoured by 35% of Tory members in a hypothetical race for the next leader, with a lead of 20% over next closest rival Sajid Javid.
There would be only two in a final race, but most Tory leavers would be naturally inclined to support Johnson. 64% of Conservatives told YouGov that Chequers (a deal which is being backed by the remaining Cabinet but few else) was too soft a deal and 60% of Conservative voters as polled by YouGov have a favourable view of him (37% unfavourable).
One could also imagine potential Rees-Mogg voters (9.61%) backing the former Foreign Secretary along with those who declared support for David Davis (4.81%), backing him if he came up against a Remain candidate.
The Case Against Johnson
Many MPs can get onto the ballot, but to reach the final two MPs must make it through the rounds to get there.
Johnson’s popularity with members cannot be denied, but that is not the case with the Party. His aggressive manoeuvres at last year’s Party Conference are fresh in the memory of many MPs. His constant outbursts on Brexit have always drawn ire, but his description that May had “had put the UK in a suicide vest and handed the detonator to Brussels” crossed a line for many MPs.
Tom Tugendhat, the Chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee said Mr Johnson needed to grow up and his comments were not funny, tweeting:
“A suicide bomber murdered many in the courtyard of my office in Helmand. The carnage was disgusting, limbs and flesh hanging from trees and bushes. Brave men who stopped him killing me and others died In horrific pain. Some need to grow up. Comparing the PM to that isn’t funny.”
Foreign Office minister Sir Alan Duncan said the comments were “one of the most disgusting moments in modern British politics” and should mark the “political end” of Mr Johnson’s career.
Johnson’s backers are loud, but quiet in number, and it is not hard to imagine several candidates crowding him out, especially if there should be another leaver.
Should You Back Him?
Probably not. Although at 9/2 with Betway for the next Tory leader, this is a tricky question. Should Johnson make the final two those odds would look huge but getting there is an increasingly tricky passage for him and other contenders will make their bids, including some who either campaigned for, or endorsed leaving. Timing is another issue that needs to be considered in your Boris betting strategy – a deal is likely to have been agreed, thus removing one of Johnson’s biggest assets in such a race.
Recommended Betting Sites



- 1
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £10, Get £10
18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply. Gamble responsibly. www.begambleaware.org - 2
£30 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus When You Place Your First Bet of £10+
Promo Code: GET40Min deposit £/€/$10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £/€/$10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager the bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Casino Bonus expires after 60 days • Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & Full T&C’s apply. - Full Terms Apply - 3
Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets
T&Cs apply. New customers on mobile only. 7 days to claim and stake £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater to qualify. Free, void, cashed out or partially cashed out bets do not qualify. Max 3x £10 free bets credited on bet settlement. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 or greater. Free bets are non-withdrawable and stake not returned with winnings. 7 day expiry. 18+ BeGambleAware.org - 4
Welcome Bonus Bet £10 Get £20
This offer is for new customers only and is available once per household. Max. FreeBet amount: £10 Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is: £20 Void/cancelled or cashed out bets do not count towards wagering to activate the free bet. Offer valid only to customers making a first deposit of £10 or more. 18+. Gamble responsibly. www.gambleaware.org. - 5
Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365
Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. - Full Terms Apply - 6
Bet £10 Get £20
The Promotion operates as a £/€20 Surprise Bet when you place a bet of at least £/€10 on any market with odds greater than or equal to 1.50 as your first bet. The Promotion runs from 09/08/2021 / 12:00 (BST) until 31/12/2021 / 12:00 (BST) (the “Promotional Period”). The Promotion is only valid to: (a) new customers; (b) customers aged 18 years or over. To qualify for the Promotion, participant must deposit and place a £/€10 bet as their first bet on any market (excluding each way) in the sportsbook with odds greater than or equal to 1.50. Only original odds count toward the promotion. Supercharged odds do not count towards the promotion. An accumulation of smaller stakes will not count. Cashed out bets do not count towards this promotion. Only available once per customer. Rewards will be credited to qualifying participants within 48 hours after placing the qualifying bet. Potential winnings from the Surprise Bet are paid in withdrawable cash, excluding the stake. This offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer. - 7
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
Promo Code: SPORTS200New ‘brand’ customers that have yet to make a first deposit on the site. Must be aged 18+. Only valid on first deposit. Not valid with any other offers on the site. Offer expires after 14 days. T&Cs apply. Play Responsibly www.begambleaware.org. - 8
Deposit £10 Get £10 Free Bet
New players only. Free Bet is a one-time stake of £10, minimum odds of 1.5, stake is not returned. 10X wagering the winnings. Wagering occurs from real balance first. Wagering requirement is calculated on bonus bets only, wagering starts from real funds. Max conversion: £20. Valid for 7 days from issue. Excluded Skrill deposits. 18+. Play Responsibly www.begambleaware.org. - 9
100% Profit Boost of Up To £100 of Winnings
T&Cs apply. New reg only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via "My Offers" page within 30 days. Skrill/Neteller deposits excl. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play. Max. extra winnings £100. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. - Full Terms Apply - 10
Bet £20, Get a £20 Free Bet
Promo Code: RZGG20New customers only. Qualifying bets must be placed before midnight 31/8/21. Free bet credited when your first bet on Glory Goals settles. Qualifying min odds 1.5. Free bet min odds 1.1 and must be used in 7 days. T&Cs apply. 18+. Play Responsibly www.begambleaware.org.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.