Super Bowl 2019 Best Bets to Back: ATS, O/U and Moneyline

Bill Williamson

January 28th, 2019

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Quick Tips

• Bet New England -2.5 over the Rams with 888Sport.
• Bet Rams-Patriots over 56.5 with Betfair.
• Bet Patriots over Rams at -139 with Karamba.

This may have been the least appealing matchup result heading into the NFL Conference Championship weekend.

The thought of seeing a 41-year-old Tom Brady meet a 40-year-old Drew Brees in a New England-New Orleans Super Bowl was so enticing. So was the idea of Los Angeles-Kansas City rematch of their epic November game that tallied a whopping 105 points. That matchup would have surely set an even higher record Super Bowl over/under line.

Instead, Super Bowl betting fans get Brady and the Patriots against the upstart Rams. Don’t be mistaken, this is still a solid NFL betting matchup that has a chance to be a tremendous game, perhaps as entertaining as the two conference title games that both went to overtime.

And we have a decent storyline: Brady and Bill Belichick against are in the Super Bowl for the ninth time in 18 seasons.

No other coach-quarterback pair in the last 20 years have more than two Super Bowl appearances together (they are Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin and the New York Giants Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin).

The Rams’ Sean McVay and Jared Goff are in their second season together. That’s when Brady and Belichick made their first Super Bowl appearance, against the Rams. Maybe this is the start of another great quarterback-coach Super Bowl run. Now, onto Super Bowl LIII.

Super Bowl 2019 Betting Against the Spread

There has been some early-line drama, which at some NFL bookmakers actually had Los Angeles as a 1-point favorite. Yet, the initial public money was aggressively in favor of New England. The Patriots are now considered a 2.5-favorite.

That is dramatic and usual. Actually, I think this is still a New England-friendly line. New England may not be a complete team, but it doesn’t matter. There’s Brady and there’s Belichick and a supporting cast that believes and elevates when it matters.

This a battle-tested New England club that may be peaking. Brady has thrown 90 passes in the postseason without being sacked. Standout tight end Rob Gronkowski, who took over in the clutch at Kansas City, is healthy again. That was evident as he played all 97 of New England’s offensive snaps at Kansas City.

But the way, those 97 snaps was the most by any NFL offense 2002. New England is peaking. The Rams will be game, but this looks like a strong New England bet at 2.5 with 888Sport.

Super Bowl LIII Over/Under Betting

This line has had some interesting movement as well in the early going. The line started in some sportsbooks as high as 59, but the under has been bet heavy and it is now 56.5. To be honest, I was tempted to go under at 59. But the drop has made me come to my senses and go with the over.

The Rams defense has been playing well lately, but it is still susceptible. The Rams have allowed 5.1 yards a carry on the ground during the regular season. The Patriots love to setup Brady’s passing attack with a strong rush attack. New England is rolling and it can score points in a hurry.

New England’s two playoff games totaled 69 and 68 points, and the Patriots have averaged 34.3 points in their last eight playoff games.

The recent Super Bowl has been trending high in recent years. The Patriots last three Super Bowl appearances have totaled 74, 62 and 52 points. Belichick and Brady know how these games are work in this era. Plus, McVay is a bit of a wizard himself. The Rams will find the end zone. Take the over with Betfair.

Moneyline Betting the 2019 Super Bowl

We aren’t going to get exotic here on the moneyline. We like the Patriots and the price of -139 is not terrible. The Patriots are the more experienced team and, again, this offense is rolling. I simply think they’ll be able to answer the Rams throughout the game.

This team has a chip on it shoulder (for some reasons) and is determined to give Brady another title. Brady talked about the great emotion of the overtime win in Kansas City. He and his teammates are on a mission. It could conceivably be the final game for both Brady and Gronkowski.

I just don’t see New England blowing this opportunity. Bet Patriots over Rams at -139 with Karamba.