I’ve looked over dozens of player prop bets (as opposed to team prop bets) from top NFL bookmakers and have narrowed down my list to the five that make sense, based on matchups and player usage, which you’ll see below.
The Patriots rookie first-round pick dealt with injury issues coming out of training camp so he got off to a slow start. However, once Michel got healthy for the second half of the season, he became the team’s featured runner, which clearly was the role that he was drafted for.
One of the things that has been noticeable of late is that he has been able to handle a high volume of carries (53 carries over his last two games) and he has really been on a roll with rushing TDs.
He has scored five rushing TDs in his two playoff games to go along with 242 yards on the ground and has scored in 3 out of last 4 games overall.
What’s also noticeable is that he’s not being taken out of many goal-line situations, and with the Patriots having the ability to move the ball consistently well, Michel’s chances of scoring should be pretty high.
So, his price at -134 is very reasonable. Bet on it with 888Sport.
While the Rams were actually one of the better teams in terms of covering opposing running backs out of the backfield during the regular season, they struggled mightily against the Saints in the NFC Championship game and gave up 13 total receptions to RBs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.
And White, a fifth-year pro, has 19 receptions in just two games in this year’s playoffs.
He’s the type of player that teams won’t be overly concerned about because he’s not very fast or flashy, but gets open quite a bit and QB Tom Brady and OC Josh McDaniels clearly have a lot of trust in him.
He figures to be heavily involved on Sunday and taking taking over 5.5 receptions at -167 is extremely reasonable. Make the bet with Karamba.
Anderson’s rebirth as a featured runner has been nothing short of amazing. After being released by 2 teams earlier this season, Anderson, who signed with the Rams in mid-December, has carried the ball 82 times in his four games with his latest team.
What’s amazing about Anderson’s production is that it was thought he was too out of shape to contribute right away (if you watched him play after the Rams signed him you would know what I meant), yet he carried the ball 43 times in his first two games while filling in for starting RB Todd Gurley.
And the sixth-year pro has scored in 3 out of 4 games with the Rams, including two rushing TDs in the team’s first playoff game against the visiting Cowboys.
While Gurley should be back to being the featured runner for this game, Anderson still should get a decent amount of work in as his backup and look for him to get some goal-line carries. His +130 number with 888Sport is worth a shot.
Ever since slot WR Cooper Kupp was lost for the season due to a torn ACL in Week 10, Reynolds, a third-year player, has seen an increase in playing time, passing targets, and receptions. With Kupp out of the lineup, Reynolds has posted 52 pass targets in eight games (six regular season, two playoffs).
Reynolds, who has really good size for the receiver position (6-3, 195), typically plays on the outside when he’s in the game with veteran WR Robert Woods moving to the slot.
And Reynolds had a bunch of “almost TDs” in those eight games without Kupp on the field. This means he either was tackled near the goal line or he was open and for whatever reason didn’t get the ball.
The feeling here is the Patriots will try to limit WR Brandin Cooks (a former Patriot, BTW) down field, which means Reynolds, who averaged about 14 yards per catch in the regular season and is averaging 18.6 yards per catch in his 2 playoff games, could get open for a few big plays in this game.
Reggie Jackson might have been called “Mr. October” due to his outstanding production in the MLB playoffs with the Yankees, but Edelman deserves the moniker “Mr. January/February” due to his outstanding production in the playoffs going back to 2013.
How good has his production been?
In his 12 games over those last five seasons (he didn’t play in the 2017 playoff due to a knee injury), he has posted whopping 96 receptions. Here’s the breakdown of total receptions and how many games he played in parentheses:
The Rams secondary is known to be solid, but Edelman’s production has been so dominant in the playoffs dating back several years that it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t have another very productive game in terms of receptions. Make the bet with Betfair.
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