Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
We've analysed in detail each of the last 15 Supreme Novices' Hurdles, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.
What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Cheltenham Festival opener, just as they did last year when highlighting Klassical Dream.
Scroll to find out more about how the trends found him, and details of all the other Supreme Novices' Hurdle trends beyond the top five.
On the trends, the 2019 Supreme Novices' Hurdle shortlist included the winner Klassical Dream, as well as fifth Felix Desjy, and seventh Angels Breath.
Klassical Dream was a clear winner on trends, having won one of the 'Key Races' (see below), and in doing so beaten the only other Grade 1 winner in the field; Willie Mullins-trained stablemate Aramon.
He ticked every other box on the 10-year and 15-year trends for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, with that added bonus of being trained by one of the race's 'Key Trainers' (see below).
Felix Desjy also won a Key Race, but had never won a race racing left-handed (which he rectified on his next outing in a Grade 1 at Aintree), while Angels Breath was also only right-handed, though ticked most other boxes and was rated a lofty 150.
The joint Cheltenham betting favourites Al Dancer and Fakir D'Oudairies were trends busts, the latter being aged four, and Al Dancer having last run in a handicap - all of the last 10 winners ran last time out in a novice hurdle.
The last 15 winners…
The last 10 winners…
Nine of the last 10 winners…
30/30 placed horses
29/30 placed horses
(Last Graded race contested prior to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle)
Key Race | Racecourse | Dist. | Month | Winners | Place Finishers |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (G2) | Punchestown | 2m | January | Douvan (2015) | Felix Desjy (2019), Mengli Khan (2018), Min (2016), Trifolium (2012) |
Slaney Novice Hurdle (G2) | Naas | 2m | February | Labaik (2017) | Go Native (2009) |
Future Champions Novice Hurdle (G1) | Leopardstown | 2m | December | None | Sizing John (2015), Jezki (2013) |
Deloitte Novice Hurdle (G1) (Discontinued) | Leopardstown | 2m2f | February | Vautour (2014), Champagne Fever (2013) | Dunguib (2010) |
Tolworth Novices' Hurdle (G1) | Sandown | 2m | January | Summerville Boy (2018) | Josses Hill (2014) |
Dovecote Novices Hurdle (G2) | Kempton | 2m | February | None | Angels Breath (2019), River Wylde (2017) |
Betfair Handicap Hurdle (G3) | Newbury | 2m 1/2f | February | None | Kalashnikov (2018), My Tent Or Yours (2013), Darlan (2012), Get Me Out Of Here (2010) |
Trainer | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L | Places |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Willie Mullins | 27 | 4 | 15 | -8.50 | 3 |
Nicky Henderson | 19 | 1 | 5 | -14.00 | 8 |
Gordon Elliott | 6 | 1 | 17 | 20.00 | 1 |
Klassical Dream galloped relentlessly to land the opening race of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival, readily, by four and a half lengths.
One of only two Grade 1 winners in the field, the Willie Mullins-trained star was sent off at generous odds of 10/1 and made virtually all the running under Ruby Walsh to win his trainer a fourth Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 10 years.
He had taken a lead from Brandon Castle until the fifth flight, then set a strong tempo in the testing ground to leave himself with no concerns at the final flight. From the back of the pack, the Olly Murphy-trained long-shots Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet ran on best to complete the podium.
The four-year-old Fakir D'Oudairies ran with credit to be fourth, sent off the 4/1 joint favourite with Al Dancer, who was beaten three flights out and finished 10th.
13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle
14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy
14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase
15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE
16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase
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