Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 1st, 2019

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TOP 5 SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE TRENDS

• Two or more starts in novice hurdles
• Aged five or six
• Won, or beaten no more than two lengths, last time out
• Between two and five starts in the season
• Running within 80 days of last start

Did Trends Win The Last Supreme Novices' Hurdle?

On the trends, the 2019 Supreme Novices' Hurdle shortlist included the winner Klassical Dream, as well as fifth Felix Desjy, and seventh Angels Breath.

Klassical Dream was a clear winner on trends, having won one of the 'Key Races' (see below), and in doing so beaten the only other Grade 1 winner in the field; Willie Mullins-trained stablemate Aramon.

He ticked every other box on the 10-year and 15-year trends for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, with that added bonus of being trained by one of the race's 'Key Trainers' (see below).

Felix Desjy also won a Key Race, but had never won a race racing left-handed (which he rectified on his next outing in a Grade 1 at Aintree), while Angels Breath was also only right-handed, though ticked most other boxes and was rated a lofty 150.

The joint Cheltenham betting favourites Al Dancer and Fakir D'Oudairies were trends busts, the latter being aged four, and Al Dancer having last run in a handicap - all of the last 10 winners ran last time out in a novice hurdle.

KEY SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Had run in at least two novice hurdles
• Had run at least twice in that season

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were aged five or six
• Had no more than five novice hurdle starts
• Had run between two and five times in the season
• Last ran in a novice hurdle (not a handicap)
• Were running within 80 days of their last start

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 142+
• Had won one of their last three starts
• Had won a Graded race - exception had not been tried
• Had won on a left-handed track
• Finished in the first two last time out - exception was enigmatic Labaik in 2017

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Were running between 16 and 90 days after their last start

29/30 placed horses

• Were aged five or six
• Had won one of their last three starts
• Had run at least twice that season

KEY RACE TRENDS (11 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Supreme Novices' Hurdle Preview

How Klassical Dream Won 2019's Supreme Novices'

Klassical Dream galloped relentlessly to land the opening race of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival, readily, by four and a half lengths.

One of only two Grade 1 winners in the field, the Willie Mullins-trained star was sent off at generous odds of 10/1 and made virtually all the running under Ruby Walsh to win his trainer a fourth Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 10 years.

1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE RESULT

1. Klassical Dream 10/1
2. Thomas Darby 28/1
3. Itchy Feet 25/1

He had taken a lead from Brandon Castle until the fifth flight, then set a strong tempo in the testing ground to leave himself with no concerns at the final flight. From the back of the pack, the Olly Murphy-trained long-shots Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet ran on best to complete the podium.

The four-year-old Fakir D'Oudairies ran with credit to be fourth, sent off the 4/1 joint favourite with Al Dancer, who was beaten three flights out and finished 10th.

Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase