Tennis Betting Strategy: Avoid Wimbledon Favourites Early On

Tennis Betting Strategy: Avoid Wimbledon Favourites Early On

When the sun finally shines, the strawberries and cream start flowing and thousands of people descend on a park in London, it can only mean one thing: Wimbledon. The oldest tennis tournament in the world and still one of the most prestigious, Wimbledon is when the world’s best come out to play, and bettors looking to capitalise.

If you’re plotting a winning betting strategy, the world’s best shouldn’t necessarily be on your radar in the early rounds. Even though the top seeds are solid picks in theory, that doesn’t mean you should bet on them in the beginning. Although we’re not here to say you definitely shouldn’t take a punt on hot shots, the opening matches pose two problems for tennis betting fans wanting to create a profitable strategy.

The first issue with betting on favourites in the early stages is that the odds are going to be low. Given that well-established pros often get matched against those on the fringes of the world’s top 100 players or aspiring pros, the oddsmakers have no choice but to weight the odds heavily in favour of a big name.

In sports betting there comes a tipping point when the price is no longer worth the risk. Regardless of how skilled a player is, there’s always a chance they could lose. A slip, an injury or an off day could have a favourite serving up double faults and losing when they shouldn’t. In other words, if the juice isn’t worth the squeeze, you shouldn’t take.

Avoid the Tipping Point

What this tipping point is will be a matter of perspective. But if we’re going to set a level, evens would be it. When you’re scrolling through the odds for the first and second rounds at Wimbledon, look beyond anything that’s not 1:1 or better. Yes, there could be some exceptions to this rule, but that's the only time your returns are ever going to be worth the potential downside of a shock defeat.

This leads us into our second problem with betting on favourites in the early rounds. Much like the FA Cup in football, Wimbledon is a chance for lower level players to perform beyond expectations and cause an upset. Over the last few decades, there have been results that have gone against the grain. In fact, such is the pressure of the first round that numerous column inches have been dedicated to the Wimbledon curse in recent years.

Rafael Nadal losing to Steve Darcis, Andre Agassi dipping out in the first round in 1996 and George Bastl beating Pete Sampras in the second round back in 2002 – big names can and do slip at Wimbledon. The reasons behind these upsets are never clear-cut. Bad weather is often an issue; a touch of rain can make the grass surface slick and that means anything can happen.

The pressure of playing a full championship schedule without much rest can also take its toll on an elite player. Finally, the fact that novices can raise their game under the pressure of the occasion makes a recipe for disaster and should be taken into account when staking at top tennis betting sites.

Look Towards the Outside of the Wimbledon Box

Of course, more often the not, top-ranked players make it through their first matches. The risk, however, is in poor odds and potential upsets. So, if you shouldn’t bet on favourites, who should you bet on? The simple answer is the value bets. In general, a value bet is one in which the odds don’t seem to match the situation.

For example, if Player A came into Wimbledon riding a 15-game win streak but the results were in smaller tournaments, the chances are they’re going to be a heavy underdog to a top seed. In this situation, Player A could actually have a better shot at winning than the odds would suggest.

Essentially, your tennis betting strategy should be to find players that are talented but overlooked. If you can do this effectively, you’ll have the chance to hit some big wins. Now, the problem here is that your win frequency will decrease simply because you’re betting on outsiders.

The flipside is that your wins will be big enough to offset your investments and more. The number of times you win will be low but the wins will be high when you avoid the favourites and find the talented outsiders in the early rounds of Wimbledon.

Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY50

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering. Visit Site
  2. Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus

  3. Bet £10 Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply Visit Site
  4. Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org Visit Site
  5. Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365

  6. Bet £10, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs Visit Site
  7. EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply Visit Site
  8. Bet £10, Get £10 + 50 Extra Spins

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New customer offer; Place first £10 bet on sports with 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spins credited after the qualifying bet has settled; Free Multiple Bet must contain 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spin stakes not returned; No wagering requirements on winnings; £200 max win; T&C’s apply; 18+ Visit Site
  9. Bet £20, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org Visit Site
  10. Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware Visit Site
alert Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Media Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2021 GDC Media Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Media Limited.
Terms and Conditions  |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4 Android GET IT ON facebook Download_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917 twitter
×