Tennis Betting Strategy: Avoid Wimbledon Favourites Early On

Kevin Taylor

June 23rd, 2021

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Wimbledon is one of the oldest tennis tournaments in the world and one of the most popular annual sporting events around. That's why Wimbledon betting is a must for many punters. Die-hard tennis fans and casual followers of the sport all tune in for this Grand Slam tournament. Many of those watching worldwide will add some excitement when the event rolls around each summer by placing tennis bets.

If you're plotting a winning Wimbledon betting strategy, the world's best shouldn't necessarily be on your radar in the early rounds. Even though the top seeds are solid picks in theory, that doesn't mean you should bet on them in the beginning. Although we're not here to say you definitely shouldn't take a punt on hot-shots, the opening matches pose two problems for tennis betting fans wanting to create a profitable strategy with Wimbledon bets.

The first issue with betting on favourites in the early stages of Wimbledon is that betting odds will be low. Given that well-established pros often get matched against those on the fringes of the world's top 100, bookies setting Wimbledon odds have no choice but to weight them heavily in favour of big names.

In Wimbledon betting, there comes a tipping point when the price is no longer worth the risk. Regardless of how skilled a tennis player is, there's always a chance they could lose. A slip, an injury or an off-day could have a favourite serving up double faults and losing when they shouldn't. In the early rounds of Wimbledon, odds should be avoided if they're too short as the risk isn't generally worth the reward.

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Avoid the Tipping Point with Wimbledon Odds

When it comes to Wimbledon betting odds, each bettor must decide what their tipping point will be. But if we're going to set a level, evens would be it. When you're scrolling through the odds for the first and second rounds at Wimbledon, look beyond anything that's not 1:1 or better. Yes, there could be some exceptions to this rule, but that's the only time your returns are ever going to be worth the potential downside of a shock defeat.

This leads us into our second problem with betting on favourites in the early rounds. Much like the FA Cup in football, Wimbledon is a chance for lower-level players to perform beyond expectations and cause an upset. Over the last few decades, there have been results that have gone against the grain. In fact, such is the pressure of the first round that numerous column inches have been dedicated to the 'Wimbledon Curse' over the years.

Rafael Nadal losing to Steve Darcis, Andre Agassi dipping out in the first round in 1996 and George Bastl beating Pete Sampras in the second round back in 2002 were all major shocks. Big names can and do slip up when aiming for a Grand Slam title and that should be noted when you're coming up with a Wimbledon betting strategy. The reasons behind these upsets are never clear-cut. Bad weather is often an issue as a touch of rain can make the grass surface slick and unpredictable, opening the door for underdogs to upset the Wimbledon odds.

The pressure of playing a full championship schedule without much rest can also take its toll on an elite tennis player going into a grand slam tournament. Novices often raise their game and rise to the occasion at this tournament, which should be taken into account when you're analysing Wimbledon betting odds at the best tennis betting sites.

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Think Outside the Box in Wimbledon Betting

Of course, more often than not, top-ranked players make it through their first matches of any tennis tournament. The risk with Wimbledon betting is in poor odds and potential upsets. So, if you shouldn't bet on favourites, who should you bet on? The simple answer is the value bets and the key here is doing your research and assessing early-round Wimbledon odds. In general, a value bet is one in which the odds don't seem to match the situation.

For example, if Player A came into Wimbledon riding a 15-game win streak but the results were in smaller tournaments, the chances are they're going to be a heavy underdog to a top seed. In this situation, Player A could actually have a better shot at winning a Wimbledon match than the odds would suggest.

Essentially, your tennis betting strategy should be to find players that are talented but overlooked. If you can do this effectively, you'll have the chance to hit some big wins. Now, the problem here is that your win frequency will decrease simply because you're betting on outsiders.

The flipside is that your wins will be big enough to offset your investments and more. The number of times you win will be low but the wins will be high when you avoid the favourites and find the talented outsiders in the early rounds of Wimbledon.

There are plenty of types of tennis bets to choose from as the best betting sites offer a variety of Wimbledon betting markets. So if you're hunting for value, be sure to choose a market that provides it, or choose from the many Wimbledon betting specials on offer.