Tennis Betting Strategy: Stage of Elimination

Tennis Betting Strategy: Stage of Elimination

The lead up to the major tennis tournaments of the year usually provides an interesting range of markets that the bookmakers do not price for smaller tournaments. These less common markets can be the source of attractive bets for the smart punter.

One such example is 'stage of elimination' betting markets. For the Grand Slam tournaments, it's possible to bet on which round individuals players will lose in. Whilst it's clearly not feasible to price this market for every single player, you will generally find it for the majority of the top 20 players in the world.

Player's Consistency

The key to tennis 'stage of elimination' betting is to look for players who tend to beat the opponents that you would expect them to beat, and lose to the players that you would expect them to lose to. These players will tend to progress as far as their seeding suggests and will rarely go beyond this point.

To fully explain this, let's look at an example. The Frenchman Richard Gasquet is a player that normally fluctuates between 10 and 20 in the world rankings. As a result, his usual seeding for Grand Slams would suggest that he should get to around the last 16. If we look at his results, he has actually been eliminated at the last 16 stage in the last five Grand Slam events, and in eight of the last ten Grand Slams. Virtually every time, he beats players that he should beat, before losing to one of the top eight seeds. Stage of elimination betting could be a profitable strategy here.

The 'Big Four'

This can also be a market worth looking at for the biggest players. Roger Federer is still a fixture in the 'big four', despite a slight decline in recent years. He remains favourite to beat any player outside the elite group, although he has been outclassed in the majority of his latest encounters with Novak Djokovic, and recently lost to Andy Murray. Backing him to be eliminated in the semi-finals could therefore be a good strategy. In fact, he has lost at this stage in five of his last nine Grand Slam appearances.

'Round Reached' Market

There are alternatives to this market if you're less confident about selecting a specific round for stage of elimination betting. Many bookmakers offer markets on players to reach a certain round, regardless of whether they then win or lose at that stage. In the case of someone like Richard Gasquet, who consistently reaches the last 16, this could be a profitable market, depending on the odds offered.

'Progression Match' Market

Another possibility in tennis betting is 'progression match' bets. Here, the bookmaker offers odds on which of two players will progress the furthest in a tournament. It is important to note whether the particular bookmaker offers a tie option, or whether bets will be void if they are both eliminated in the same round.

Again here, it is simply a matter of determining how far you expect each player to progress – whether you prefer the steady, consistent player, who should reach a set round, or whether you opt for the streaky player, who could go far in the tournament, or who could lose in the opening round.

If you're interested in tennis betting, head over to Bet365 Sports to back your favourite player.


Check Out Popular Tennis Betting Event Offers:

Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
Affiliate Disclosure: At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. This means that if you visit a website through our link and make a deposit, Gambling.com will receive a commission payment at no extra cost to you. At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. More
  1. 1
    BetItOn Sportsbook
    Established 2020
    More info
    EXCLUSIVE: Bet £10, Get £10
    Fully Mobile-Optimised Interface
    Interactive Football Match Centre
    ‘BoostItOn’ Accumulator Boosts
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    27
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    BetItOn have ex-Liverpool striker and Champions League winner Djibril Cissé as their brand ambassador and resident football expert.
  2. 2
    888 Sports
    Established 1997
    More info
    £30 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus When You Place Your First Bet of £10+
    Create your own Multiples with Bet Builder
    Live Streaming of all UK & Irish Racing
    Daily Price Enhancements & Specials
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    GET40
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    16
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    888sport offer a wide range of sports betting markets, combined with regular enhanced specials, plus an exclusive 'Acca Club' (bet £20 on Multiples or Bet Builder to get a £5 free bet - every week).
  3. 3
    Bet UK Sports
    Established 2012
    More info
    Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets
    Wide Range of In-Play Markets
    Live Streaming of UK Horse Racing
    Betting App for Android & iOS Devices
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    9
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    BetUK have leading National Hunt trainer Neil Mulholland and celebrity horse racing enthusiast and model Vogue Williams as brand ambassadors and betting experts.
  4. 4
    mr.play Sports
    Established 2017
    More info
    Welcome Bonus Bet £10 Get £15
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Distinctive ‘Moustache’ Branding
    ‘PlayBoost’ Accumulator Boosts
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Mr.Play Sports has a fun style of its very own, with a memorable handlebar 'tache wherever you look, but it boasts a serious amount of betting markets, plus Premier League & 'Euro Elite' betting battle tournaments.
  5. 5
    Bet365 Sports
    Established 2001
    More info
    Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365
    Awarded 'Sportsbook of the Year' 2018/19/20/21
    Live Streaming of 1000's of Events
    2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    31
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Bet365 offer the most comprehensive online sports betting service, including live steaming of a huge range of sports, plus a unique 'Edit Bet' functionality.
  6. 6
    Kwiff Sports
    Established 2015
    More info
    Bet £10 Get £20
    Random Supercharged Payouts
    Weekly ‘kwiff Club’ Cashback & Free Bets
    ‘Acca Shield’ Refund (if One Leg Fails)
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    13
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    When a customer places a bet with kwiff, they may find that their bet is “kwiffed” - where you receive increased odds after placing your bet.
  7. 7
    Leo Vegas Sports
    Established 2016
    More info
    100% Profit Boost of Up To £100 of Winnings
    Mobile First Betting Interface
    'Leo King' Sports Prediction Game
    24/7 Customer Service
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    34
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Leo Vegas Sports is the sportsbook from this multi-award-winning casino operator, with a focus on mobile users - including a sport betting app for Android & iOS Devices.
  8. 8
    SportNation Sports
    Established 2017
    More info
    Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
    Rewards Points for Every Bet
    Weekly Free Bet Club
    High Betting Limits
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    SPORTS200
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    27
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    Yes
    SportNation offer unique money back promotions and special offers, such as 'First Five' where your football bet is paid out as a winner if your team scores first in the first 5 minutes.
  9. 9
    RedZone Sports
    Established 2009
    More info
    Bet £20, Get a £20 Free Bet
    Extensive American Sports Markets
    Unique 'Glory Goals' Betting
    Regular Enhanced Odds & Specials
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    RZGG20
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    12
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    No
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    RedZone is an American-style sportbook who offer innovative markets, such as 'Glory Goals' where you can bet on two teams playing in different games - selecting who scores most.
  10. 10
    Luckland Sports
    Established 2015
    More info
    Bet £15, Get £10
    Bonus Code
    The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    The number of sports with in-play betting available
    32
    Bet Builder
    Can you build your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    Acca Insurance
    Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
×