Thyestes Chase Betting Tips: Trends Hit Henry With Neck Saver
Gowran Park's Thyestes Chase betting is dominated by Invitation Only, and Paddy Power Chase third and fourth Fitzhenry and Solomn Grundy, as a packed field prepares for what is often seen as a Grand National trial.
The 3m1f €100,000 handicap has attracted no fewer than 11 horses with Grand National Odds, the best of them being the 33/1 shots: the Gordon Elliott-trained General Principle, last year's Aintree second Pleasant Company, and 2016 Cheltenham Festival hero Mall Dini.
Thyestes Chase Trends
The test of stamina represented by the Thyestes Chase, regularly run on truly heavy ground, lends itself perfectly to the grit of the Irish-bred racehorse.
Thus, every renewal bar one since 1998, has been won by an Irish-bred, the French-bred Djakadam defying scores of trends to win aged six in 2015. Before that, there had been several British-bred winners in the early 1990s, including two-time champ Wylde Hide.
12-year Thyestes Chase Trends
- 12/12 winners had run between one and five times that season
- 11/12 winners were rated no higher than 145, Champagne West the exception at 154 in 2017
- 11/12 winners had previously finished in the top three over obstacles at Gowran
- 11/12 winners were bred in Ireland, French-bred Djakadam the exception
- 10/12 winners were aged between eight and 11, exceptions seven-year-old Monbeg Notorious and six-year-old Djakadam
- 10/12 winners had yet to win over fences that season, exceptions won last time out in Listed and novice company.
- 10/12 winners last raced no more than 31 days ago
- 9/12 winners had previously won over at least 3m over hurdles or fences
- 8/12 winners carried 10st 10lb or less, but 3/5 winners carried more than 11st to victory
It's not like they haven't tried either, with 43/227 runners since 2006 being British or French-bred and just 1 of them (2%) winning. Yes, there have been vastly more Irish-bred runners, but 6.5% of those horses have won.
The other two key Thyestes Chase trends are ratings - 11 of the last 12 winners were rated no higher than 145 - and course form - 11/12 winners had finished in the top three over obstacles at Gowran.
Irish Grand National winner General Principle (16/1 Betway) comes out on top on trends, with Goulane Chosen and Solomn Grundy not far behind. Pleasant Company and Fitzhenry also make the shortlist.
The best bet is Fitzhenry (12/1 Coral), who is versatile in terms of ground and has the measure of Solomn Grundy, now rated 1lb higher than him, having finish behind at Leopardstown rated 4lbs less than the Paul Nolan-trained contender.
Is There Another Bet?
But for half a length in last season's Kim Muir, Mall Dini (16/1 Paddy Power) would be a dual Cheltenham Festival winner, having won the 2016 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final.
Another crack at the Kim Muir might be the plan, trainer Pat Kelly clearly thinking that a rating of 143 is the magic number, with him running off that mark in the last two renewals. It's a concern then that he is running off 149 in Thursday's test, but perhaps he's improved?
From the same end of the scale is Invitation Only (11/1 William Hill), who missed Sunday's Kinloch Brae Chase as the ground was too fast. Gowran already being yielding, with rain forecast, gives confidence he will take part, albeit under possibly topweight with a rating of 152.
Less exposed is Willie Mullins-trained stablemate Some Neck (14/1 William Hill), who won a beginners' chase at Gowran last season, before gaining handicap experience then returning to win a Grade 2 at Punchestown this season.
He has a similar profile to 2015 winner Djakadam, who won in the same colours, and lined up having run just four times over fences, being tested at Grade 2, Grade 1, and British handicap level - winning twice.
Some Neck hasn't run in Britain or in a Grade 1, but has two good wins over fences, sixth in a competitive handicap, and just five runs over fences. There appears plenty left in the locker.
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