Tolworth Hurdle 2019 Betting Tips: Grand 14/1 Upset Fancied
Saturday's Grade 1 Tolworth Novices' Hurdle is as open a renewal as you will get with two polar opposites heading the betting odds.
A decent pointer to the Cheltenham Festival's novices' hurdles, the Tolworth Novices' Hurdle has attracted two-time Cheltenham winner Elixir De Nutz, as short as 14/1 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, and once-raced Rathhill, no bigger than 20/1 for the longer Ballymore Novices' Hurdle.
There's also Epatante, 6/1 favourite for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Festival, and Lust For Glory, priced at 16/1 for the same event. In short, Sandown is set for a cracking Tolworth Novices' Hurdle, betting pointing towards victory for 9/4 favourite Rathhill.
Tolworth Hurdle Details
Run over 2m, the Tolworth Novices' Hurdle is a £50,000 Grade 1, that marks the second opportunity of the season for young hurdlers to race at the highest level. Last Saturday's Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury was the first chance, the race won impressively by Gold Cup hero Best Mate's nephew Champ, who is now favourite for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle.
Last year's Tolworth was won by Summerville Boy, who went on to take the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, just proving that this Sandown feature is a key race in the future development of a high-class animal.
Is There A Trends Winner?
There are a host of key trends to consider when looking for the winner in the Tolworth Novices' Hurdle betting, not least the record of trainer Nicky Henderson, who has four entries, including the favourite Rathhill.
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Tolworth Novices' Hurdle Trends
- Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer in the history of the Tolworth Hurdle with five victories - New York Rainbow (1992), Minella Class (2011), Captain Conan (2012), Royal Boy (2014) and L'Ami Serge (2015).
- 5/10 winners were officially rated 135 or higher, others had no rating
- 6/10 winners were in the top three in the betting, with five favourites coming home first in that period, Henderson saddling two 9/1 winners.
- 8/10 winners have been aged five or six, exceptions were aged seven.
- 8/10 winners had at least two runs over hurdles, exceptions both won only outing.
- 8/10 winners had won their last race prior to running in the Tolworth, exceptions finished in first 3.
- 8/10 winners had last run no more than 29 days ago, exceptions trained by Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls
- 9/10 winners had at least had one win over hurdles already, exception Summerville Boy in 2018.
The Henderson runner best fitting the trends this year is indeed the six-year-old Rathhill, who won his only hurdle outing less than 29 days ago, but the Paul Nicholls-trained Southfield Stone (16/1 Unibet) also fits the bill, with more experience, and the same can be said for Elixir De Nutz (3/1 Ladbrokes) and Bright Forecast (14/1 Bet365).
Tolworth Hurdle Best Bet:
The JP McManus-owned Rathhill (9/4 Unibet) went into many a notebook with an easy success on his hurdling debut at Newbury almost three weeks ago and appears to be the leading light of the Nicky Henderson-trained contenders.
French Grade 1 scorer Epatante (7/1 Coral) looks to be an exciting recruit to the Seven Barrows squad. She really looked like the real deal when making a winning debut for Henderson at Kempton in November. Whether she lines up against up against Rathhill remains to be seen, but she must enter calculations if she does.
Challenging Rathhill for the number one spot in the betting is the Colin Tizzard-trained Elixir De Nutz (3/1 Ladbrokes), who has been successful on his last two outings at Cheltenham, one of which was a Grade 2.
The form of his last victory has worked out particularly well, as the runner-up, Jarveys Plate, has since scored with ease in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, also at Cheltenham. But the best bet in this Tolworth Hurdle looks to be trained by Paul Nicholls.
His five-year-old Grand Sancy (14/1 Coral) has already raced five times this season, but is maintaining a high level of form, winning a listed novices' hurdle at Haydock and then finishing fourth in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot a fortnight ago.
Longshot To Watch
The Ben Pauling-trained Bright Forecast (14/1 Bet365) carries the colours of the late Grand National-winning owner Nick Embiricos, who passed away a few days before his first win at Newbury in November.
He proved that result was no fluke when winning at Leicester a week ago, justifying 11/8 favouritism by making all the running. The Tolworth Hurdle will be his biggest test by far, but he does appear to have a big engine and with all the attention focused around the Henderson and Nicholls runners, he is well worth risking an each-way flutter at odds of 14/1 with Bet365.
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