Tom Brady Super Bowl 2019 Prop Bets: Banking on His History
- Bet Tom Brady over 300.5 passing yards at -134 with 888Sport.
- Bet Brady over 25.5 completions at -159 with Karamba.
- Bet first score in first 4 minutes at +235 with Betfair.
We all know the greatness of Tom Brady and the word GOAT being thrown around over and over again. But what if we knew went 0-8 in Super Bowls? Would you flinch? Brady has been to eight Super Bowls. The amazing stat here is that every game has gone down to the final play.
Let’s look at the margin of victory in these games: eight games with a margin of four points per game. Brady’s Patriots have scored 202 points. Opponents have scored 198. It is quite remarkable just how close Brady is to being 0-8 in Super Bowls, yet nobody discusses this.
There are a few prop bets on margin of victory, but the most likely scenario here is one team winning by 3 points at +350 with 888Sport. Great value here that’s within the frame of the average 4 PPG difference historically for Brady’s Pats.
A Fine Line Between Brady & LeBron
You could argue that without Vinatieri and Gostkowski, Brady is the NFL’s version of Lebron James. The guy who leads his team to the championship year after year with unreal expectations only to fall short.
Brady and Lebron are closer in comparison than you may think. Nine NBA Finals appearances for Lebron. This year marks Brady’s ninth Super Bowl appearance. Lebron is 3-6, Brady 5-3 so far. They are inches away from being oddly perfectly compared.
Both were “saved” by role players in their championship wins, mainly kickers and unsung heros for Brady’s five, in which he won those games by a total of 19 points combined.
Controversy has been a friend of Brady along his career path. Spygate, Deflategate, Ref-gate? The slither of an inch that Brady has poked his head through time-after-time has made him an untouchable figure.
Makes you wonder how many other greats in NFL history could have been deemed GOAT if they got a call here, a break there. Brady surely has got a call here, a break there. We can even note Malcolm Butler’s miracle interception saved Tom yet again against the Seahawks.
However, this time around I see a more motivated Brady, if that’s possible. This is a statement game for him because many thought the Pats could not get back to the big game this year. Statement game calls for statement plays.
Take First Score in first 4 minutes at +225 with Betfair. If the Pats get the ball first, I can see a hurry-up offense right out the gate. If Rams get the ball first, I expect them to get a deep ball in there early since they have had so much success with it this season.
Inches From Perfection Too
On the flip side, how close is Brady to having an 8-0 Super Bowl record? Well, it’s closer than you think. Take a look at the two Super Bowls vs. the Giants.
Brady’s Pats had a chance to go 19-0 and be the first team to do it. With a late TD the Patriots took the lead, but lost in final minute due to a brilliant led drive by Eli Manning and some lucky catches along the way.
When facing the Giants again, Brady had Wes Welker wide open, which would have been a huge gain into the red zone on 2nd-and-long while leading 17-14 late in the game. Four minutes left to be exact. Instead, no points were scored and the Giants yet again get the game winning TD in the clutch.
The third Super Bowl was of course to Philly last year in another instant classic that featured little defense until it mattered. Down 38-33, Brady had a chance to lead the Patriots down the field for another memorable Brady moment.
He was stripped and fumbled which led to the Eagles recovering and also getting a chance to burn some more time on the clock before kicking a field goal. If not for this fumble or missed block, are we talking about another ring for Tom?
In Brady’s five Super Bowl wings, he has five fourth-quarter, game-winning drives. How special is that?
If you take out a Richard Seymour hold, a David Tyree legendary awkward catch and a Cory Clement TD that shouldn’t have been called a TD, Brady could have eight game-winning drives in the big game. Yes, it’s been a close-as-possible in his Super Bowl career, but inches are the difference between great and good.
Fourth quarters have been wild in Brady’s Super Bowls, and Brady is known for the fourth-quarter comeback. Ties in perfectly with a Both teams have a lead in 4th quarter prop bet at +280.
One thing to look for Sunday is Edge Pressure vs Interior Pressure. In 2018, Brady has a 118.7 passer rating vs edge pressure. However, vs interior pressure, Brady goes down to just 63.1 passer rating.
The Rams lead the NFL in interior pass rush at 16 percent pressure. This means 16 percent of the time the Rams get pressure up the middle on the QB, specifically from defensive tackles opposed to defensive ends. How do the Patriots matchup with this? They have the top-ranked pass-blocking offensive line in the NFL this season.
However, I believe we can take advantage of this Rams dominant interior pass rush with a prop bet. Take Rams to get OVER 1.5 sacks with Karamba.
The Data & The Bets
One thing about Brady is that we have the data to really key in on what he does in the Super Bowl. In fact, we have so much data on Brady that the ESPN website doesn't even go back to his first Super Bowl box score. Come on!
Let’s look at the averages of Brady in the Super Bowl. I’m going to eliminate his first Super Bowl where he was 16/27 with 145 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT and got sacked once. This was a “don’t lose us the game” approach. This is an outlier game in which he was not let loose.
Brady has averaged 347 yards passing and has also increased his yards passing in five straight Super Bowls. Brady has averaged 2.42 TD passes, less than an INT per game and has got sacked 2.29 times per game, including five sacks twice.
The big stat here is how much he throws the ball in Super Bowls. Brady simply does not hand off the ball much in these games. Brady averages an incredible 31 completions and 47 attempts in the last seven Super Bowls. Pass much? Let’s take advantage of this.
Let’s also grab Patriots OVER 25.5 completions (-159) and Brady to throw OVER 37.5 attempts (-134) with Karamba. Overs are typically a sucker bet for a Super Bowl as the oddsmakers tend to set the bar higher than it should be because they know the public will want to bet overs.
Too much data here on Brady’s Super Bowl history to not go heavy on these prop bets. We have seen Brady and Belichick’s approach in the Super Bowl all too many times. It’s time to take advantage of that data and turn it into profits.
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