We’re moving into Week 6 of the NFL season, and on the surface, it looks like there are some obviously plays with totals this week for fans of NFL betting.
Games such as the Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots showdown are going to attract a lot of over money, but as we’ve come to find out in this league, very little is obvious. Let’s take a closer look at the totals and see if what makes sense on paper proves us right in reality.
The Dolphins average just 19.8 points per game. The Bears average roughly eight points more, but a number of those points have come either from defensive scores or defensive havoc plays which set up the offense in very good position.
These two teams are 28th and 29th in the NFL in offensive yards gained. They have needed their defenses to help their offenses. Chicago averages just 219 passing yards per game, and much of that was inflated when they beat up on Tampa Bay two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Miami averages just 192 per game. This is not a game in which the points figure to fly across the scoreboard, and with Miami missing multiple starting offensive linemen, the ability of Chicago to limit Miami should increase.
The Bears and young Mitchell Trubisky playing a road game suggest that Chicago’s offense won’t flourish, either. Take the under with Karamba.
The Seattle Seahawks have shifted from being a pass-oriented team to a rush-oriented team over the last three weeks, and the results have been good. They’ve passed the ball just 42.93% over their last three games, and in that span, have won twice and nearly beat the undefeated Los Angeles Rams.
They should have plenty of success running the ball against the No. 28 run defense in the NFL this week. If that’s the case, their offense will work well. On the other hand, the Raiders should also find success on the ground as they’ll be facing the No. 28 rush defense.
And the Seahawks pass defense has been suspect too, registering just 10 sacks on the year (22nd in the NFL). Both offenses have good matchups against the defenses, which should lead to a relatively high-scoring affair. Grab the over with 888Sport.
There are two games this week – this and the Kansas City-New England game – that on the surface, look like dead overs. However, I prefer this one over the other game.
The Falcons defense is depleted without three key starters in the back seven. Their top run stuffer, Grady Jarrett, hasn’t been able to practice much of the week and could be out again. Atlanta is 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.9), 25th in rushing yards per game allowed, 24th in passing yards allowed and 27th in sacks.
What’s worse is that Tampa Bay has even less sacks, ranks lower in passing yards per game allowed, and while the run statistics are better for the defense, that’s mostly because their opponents have been airing it out with ease.
With the Falcons being at home and the Bucs coming off a bye week, expect both offenses to flourish in this one. It’s a big total, but Falcons games have averaged 66.5 points per game over the last four weeks while Tampa Bay is at 62.8 over that span. Hammer the over with 888Sport.
The Ravens-Titans matchup looks like an obvious under but NFL games aren’t always that straightforward. At any rate, if you look at the Ravens offense this season, they are scoring just 19.3 points per game on the road compared to 37.0 at home.
As for the Titans, they’re not scoring much no matter where they are, as they’re averaging just 17.4 points per game on the year, which is 29th in the NFL.
The lone concern in this spot playing the under is the Titans run defense, which is the weakness of the unit. They allow 123.2 rushing yards per game, which is 26th in the NFL. However, the Titans have the league’s No. 1 red-zone defense, so we’re probably looking at more field goals than touchdowns for Baltimore in this spot.
As for Tennessee’s offense, the numbers are ugly. They average 3.7 yards per carry (26th) and have registered just two rushing touchdowns. They’re also 29th in passing yards per game with just 187. Their four passing touchdowns are the second-fewest in the NFL.
Add it up, with a Ravens defense that is best in the NFL in opposing QB rating and fourth in rushing yards per game allowed (88.4), and we should be looking at a low-scoring affair. Back under 41 with Karamba.
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