Triumph Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Triumph Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP FIVE TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS

  • First four last time out
  • First two in one of last three starts
  • Last ran no more than 60 days ago
  • Up to six hurdle starts
  • Between one and six starts that season

Did Trends Win The Last Triumph Hurdle?

From the 2019 Triumph Hurdle trends, the Cheltenham betting favourite Sir Erec shone, along with Hannon, and the winner Pentland Hills.

Sir Erec had trounced his opposition in a ‘Key Races' (see below) when winning the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in February, and win which gave him a second at that level and put him head and shoulders above the field.

Pentland Hills, though having a more old-fashioned Flat profile, had won his only hurdles start by 14 lengths in February, and had to be respected with his trainer's remarkable Triumph record laid out below.

Hannon had been beaten a nose by a six-year-old in a Grade 2 novice hurdle last time out, fitting the 10-year-trends for having last run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2. He also had never run on the Flat, and won the second of his three hurdle run by six lengths.

The 20/1 second Coeur Sublime and 9/1 third Gardens Of Babylon had also last run in Graded races, but were well-beaten and not on the shortlist to win. They did however fit the 'Place Trends' (see below) very well, despite not winning last time out.


KEY TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS

What do the trends say about Flat form?

The Triumph Hurdle is only open to horses aged four years old, so it tends to attract runners that have racecourse experience on the Flat at three or two, before they took to hurdles. But, it's not essential, and trends have changed markedly in the past 10 years.

From 2000-2009, every Triumph Hurdle winner had run a minimum of 7 times on the Flat, and won at least once over distances ranging from 1m-1m6f. All but two in that period achieved a handicap rating of 80 or more too.

The profile was a decent staying handicapper, who had won a maiden, and maybe a handicap or two. Some had placed in Group 3 and Listed company, Celestial Halo starring in the period with a rating over 100 after finishing 7th in the St Leger.

However, from 2010-2019, four winners never ran on the Flat, three ran just three times - all winning or placing over at least 1m4f. One winner ran four times, winning over 1m4f, another ran six, winning twice over 7f and 1m, then Pentland Hills ran 11 times and Countrywide Flame ran 16 times. They were exceptions and both won over distances of at least 1m3f.

So when you're looking for the winner of the 2018 Triumph Hurdle, minimal Flat form that includes a win over 1m4f+ is preferred, but no Flat form at all is also a positive.


15-year-trends

The last 15 winners...

  • Finished in the first four last time out
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Had run no more than five times that season
  • Last ran in a hurdle or a novice hurdle, no more than 55 days ago

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Had run up to six times over hurdles
  • Last ran no more than 50 days ago
  • Had won if they had run at Cheltenham before

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were French or Irish-bred
  • Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2
  • Won last time out, or were beaten no more than three lengths
  • Had run no more than three times since their last win
  • Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races, six were unbeaten

Seven of the last 10 winners…

  • Had run no more than four times on the Flat, four had never run on the Flat.

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

  • Finished in the first four last time out
  • Had run no more than four times since their last win

29/30 placed horses

  • Won one of their last five starts
  • Last ran no more than 90 days ago

26/30 placed horses

  • Won last time out, or were beaten no more than four lengths

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Triumph Hurdle)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1)LeopardstownFarclas (2018), Ivanovich Gorbatov (2016), Tiger Roll (2014), Our Conor (2013), Countrywide Flame (2012)Gardens Of Babylon (2019), Mr Adjudicator (2018), Mega Fortune (2017), Bapaume (2017), Footpad (2016), Guitar Pete (2013), Hisaabaat (2012), Unaccompanied (2011), Mourad (2009)
Triumph Hurdle Trial (G2)CheltenhamDefi Du Seuil (2017), Peace And Co (2015)Kentucky Hyden (2014)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L Places
Gordon Elliott 7 2 29 14.00 2
Nicky Henderson 10 2 20 14.50 1

WATCH: Racehour Triumph Hurdle Preview


How Pentland Hills Won 2019's Triumph Hurdle

Pentland Hills sprung a 20/1 surprise in the 2019 Triumph Hurdle, as he galloped to a three-length victory 18 days after winning his hurdles debut.

The son of Derby winner Motivator had lumped some big weights to success in moderate Flat handicaps last autumn, but did not make the switch to hurdles for new trainer Nicky Henderson until February.


1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 TRIUMPH HURDLE RESULT

  1. Pentland Hills 20/1
  2. Coeur Sublime 20/1
  3. Gardens Of Babylon 9/1

Following the early fall of red-hot favourite Sir Erec, who had scared away plenty of opposition, the race was left wide open, and it was the improving star who prevailed, soundly beating fellow 20/1 shot Coeur Sublime.

Gardens Of Babylon, Sir Erec's Joseph O'Brien-trained stablemate, finished third at 9/1 with the 66/1 chance Nelson River a further three lengths back in fourth for jockey Harry Bannister and trainer Tony Carroll.


Cheltenham 2020 Friday Schedule

13:30 - Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

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