UFC Fight Night 147 Betting Odds & Tips: Till vs Masvidal

Jed Meshew

March 14th, 2019

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Quick Tips

• Bet Jorge Masvidal to win at +200 with 888Sport.
• Bet Darren Till by Decision at +150 with Karamba.

On Saturday at the 02 Arena in London, the UFC makes its first stop in the United Kingdom in 2019 with a pivotal matchup between two highly-ranked welterweight contenders, Darren Till and Jorge Masvidal.

Till is looking to rebound off his unsuccessful title challenge at UFC 228, while Masvidal has lost two in a row and hasn’t fought since 2017. For either man, a win puts them back in the mix for a title shot whereas a loss probably spells and end to their golden aspirations.

Let’s dive in and see what fans of UFC betting should look for.

Till vs. Masvidal Betting Tips

Analyzing Till

Though Darren Till signed with the UFC in 2015, he didn’t really become a hot commodity until 2017, when he obliterated Donald Cerrone in the first round of their main event bout at UFC Fight Night Gdansk.

That win, plus Till’s impenetrable bravado, earned him a contender bout with Stephen Thompson in his hometown of Liverpool. A questionable decision later and Till was fighting for the UFC welterweight title, where Tyron Woodley dismantled and submitted him inside of two rounds.

The loss has done little to diminish Till’s confidence though, and leading up to this fight he has maintained that he is still the best fighter in the world. He’ll get a chance to show why when he takes on one of the welterweight division’s toughest outs in Jorge Masvidal.

Though Till lived in Brazil for three years, he actually hails from a Muay Thai background and the bread and butter of his game is his powerful left hand.

An enormous welterweight, Till has already noted that his inevitable future won’t be at just middleweight, but even light heavyweight as well, and he carries the power one would expect from his size.

At only 26, Till is still constantly improving with every fight and the most dangerous aspect of his game at this point might not be the skills he has but the ones he’s acquiring now.

Analyzing Masvidal

By contrast, Jorge Masvidal is already a finished product. Masvidal got his start fighting in Miami boatyards with Kimbo Slice when he was only a teenager and since then, made the jump to full-time MMA fighter, amassing a 32-13 record over his 15-year career.

Seen mostly as a gatekeeper to the elite for much of his career, in the last few years Masvidal has turned a corner, arguably winning 12 in a row before running into Stephen Thompson. At 34 years old, the time is now for Masvidal if he wants to make a run at the title.

“Gamebred” is an apt nom de guerre for the Cuban-American as Masvidal is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division. An underrated technician on the feet, Masvidal can do a bit of everything and is a particularly savvy defensive fighter with an eye for sharp counters.

He’s also a sound wrestler with extremely good grappling. Masvidal’s biggest weakness is a lack of urgency and volume. He often settles in at a slow pace where he can land more effective shots but is outworked in the eyes of the judges.

Till vs Masvidal Best Bets

In a vacuum, Masvidal is a better fighter than Till. He’s a technically superior striker and is well-rounded enough to work takedowns on Till where Masvidal is still lacking.

Unfortunately for Masvidal, Till’s size, distance management, adaptability, and Masvidal’s own tendency to let fights slip away from him all mean Till is still the most likely party to win the bout.

But, Till coming in as a -250 betting favorite per 888Sport is definitely too high as -250 implies that he will win this fight 71 percent of the time, which feels optimistic. So, if you wanted to lay a bet on Masvidal as an underdog at +200, that wouldn’t be a bad value bet.

However, given the contours of this fight, there is a better bet available. Though Till has a reputation as a bruiser, he has only knocked out two of his opponents in the UFC.

Meanwhile, Masvidal is as game as his nickname implies, having only ever been stopped once, an inverted triangle that went on to be the Submission of the Year . . . in 2009. That’s a decade of fighting some of the toughest men in the sport and in all that time Masvidal has yet to even appear all that hurt.

Given all of that, the likelihood of Till earning a stoppage is very low. Instead, the most likely outcome of this fight is Till edges out a close decision, winning the first round as Masvidal knocks off the rust and then winning the final two rounds after adjusting to Masvidal.

So, taking Darren Till by Decision at +150 is a great bet with Karamba. And for the risk averse of you out there, you can even bet both lines, hedging against each other to practically guarantee a winning night.