UFC Fight Night 153: Gustafsson vs Smith Odds & Predictions
- Bet Smith to win at 49/20 with 888Sport.
- Bet Smith to win by KO/TKO at 4/1 with Karamba.
- Bet Gustafsson to win in Round 4 at 13/1 or Round 5 at 18/1 with MansionBet.
Saturday morning at the Ericsson Globe Arena in Stockholm Sweden, the UFC returns to action with Fight Night 153 (or UFC on ESPN+ 11). The main event features a light heavyweight contest between Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Smith, the two most recent challengers for Jon Jones’ belt.
Both Gustafsson and Smith came up short in their title bids and both are looking to put themselves right back in title contention with a big win this weekend. Let’s check out UFC betting odds for who to bet on.
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Smith Betting Analysis
Alexander Gustafsson is among the most skilled light heavyweights currently competing. Blessed with enormous size and length, Gustafsson has built a striking game around maximizing these tools, keeping range with active footwork and throwing in combinations from distance. He is also an adept wrestler, timing shots excellently and more than willing to mix his style up if the striking isn’t going his way.
Smith is also a talented light heavyweight, though in different ways than Gustafsson. Smith is more a power-punching brawler, though to call him a brawler isn’t quite right. When he is sticking to a game plan, he does not brawl but prefers to pressure; however, it’s not all that difficult to draw Smith into a sloppier fight.
Smith should try and avoid that though so he can pressure Gustafsson consistently to take advantage of the Swedish fighter’s bad footwork and land the big shots he needs to win.
Alexander Gustafsson is an elite fighter in a difficult position. Gustafsson has now come up short twice against Jon Jones, leaving him in the Rich Franklin Zone - better than almost all of his contemporaries but not good enough to beat the dominant champion. Franklin, after losing to Anderson Silva the second time, went 5-4 before retiring.
It’ll be interesting to see if that same sort of listlessness infects Gustafsson, who, on paper at least, should win this fight.
Gustafsson-Smith Prediction and Best Bets
From a technical standpoint, Gustafsson should be favored, and he is at 33/100 per 888Sport with the comeback on Smith at 49/20. Gustafsson has the edges in most of the metrics: He’s longer than Smith, he throws more volume, he has beaten better opposition and he has better cardio and more diverse skills. But the question of motivation is a serious one coming into this fight and that isn’t in question for Smith.
Though he may be a less talented fighter than Gustafsson, Smith only recently has tasted the upper echelon of MMA and has to believe he could work his way back to a title shot. That and his KO power may carry him to victory in enemy territory. It certainly is enough to think that Gustafsson as a -305 favorite is far too high.
Smith can box with Gustafsson and has the power advantage and for those reasons alone I like him as a straight underdog bet at 49/20 with 888Sport.
There are also a few notable MMA betting props to keep an eye on. Should Smith author the upset, it would likely be an early KO as Smith tends to fade down the stretch. Smith in Round 1 is 15/2 per 888Sport and Smith in Round 2 at 12/1 are both worth small flyer bets. Along those lines, you can also juice the value on Smith by betting him by KO/TKO at 4/1 with Karamba instead of the straight underdog line.
Conversely, since Gustafsson still probably should win the fight, Gustafsson by Decision at +225 is a decent hedge, or you could throw down scratch on Gustafsson to win in Round 4 at 13/1 or Round 5 at 18/1 at MansionBet just in case Smith’s cardio truly fails him.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Bet £10 Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365
Bet £10, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
50% Deposit Bonus up to £100 Promo Code: FBWELS18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New UK customers only; 6x wager requirement with 90 day expiry; Only sports bets contribute to wagering; Min. 2 selections at 1.4 min odds per selection; Max £100 per bet. 18+. T&C's Apply. Please bet responsibly. begambleaware.org
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.