Ultima Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Ultima Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

  • Won no more than one handicap chase
  • Run at least twice that season
  • Won over at least 3m
  • Run at Cheltenham before
  • Finished first five last time out

Get the latest Ultima Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Ultima Handicap Chase?

Applying the Ultima Handicap Chase trends last year, produced a shortlist of three; one going on to finish in the frame in Tuesday's notoriously tough bettting heat.

Vintage Clouds fared best of the quartet, finishing second, having been third the previous year, but he fell short on some key trends; he had pulled up last time in the Welsh National, and had won two handicap chases - exposure trends points towards a maximum of one, though that could be changing with the increased calibre of runners.

Crucial Role and Singlefarmpayment also made the cut on trends, the latter then ruled out due to an unfavourable handicap mark - he had been 5th off similar the year previously and second off 142.

The Dan Skelton-trained Crucial Role though had a classic Ultima Handicap Chase profile; unexposed novice with class, handicap experience, and stamina, but he had lacked runs in bigs fields and had not won over fences over 3m, eventually finishing 11th. One to watch next year?

Winner Beware The Bear had won four handicap chases, so was quickly marked out on trends, though perhaps it was significant that they were his only chase wins, and that one had come at Cheltenham, where trends show course form is key.


KEY ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged no older than 10
  • Had an average rating of 140.6
  • Had run at least twice that season

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Finished in the first six last time out, four winning
  • Had won over at least 3m over hurdles or fences
  • Had won on a galloping track
  • Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
  • Had run at Cheltenham before, six running over fences

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Had won 0-4 chases
  • Had run in at least five chases
  • Had run in at least one handicap chase; only Beware The Bear won more than 1
  • Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
  • Last ran between 18-45 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Were aged 7-9
  • Were officially rated 142 or higher, including the last six

Six of the last 10 winners…

  • Were running off their highest chase handicap mark
  • Carried more than 11st 1lb

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Were aged up to 11

39/40 placed horses

  • Had won at least 1 chase before

37/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
  • Had run in two or more handicap chases

36/40 placed horses

  • Featured 4th or lower on the race card

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last major race contested prior to the Ultima Handicap Chase chase)

Key RaceRaceourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Cleeve Hurdle (G2)CheltenhamThe Druids Nephew (2015)The Young Master (2016), Chief Dan George (2010)
Paddy Power Chase (Grade B)LeopardstownAlfie Sherrin (2012)Noble Endeavour (2017), Grand Jesture (2015)
Ladbrokes Trophy (G3)NewburyBeware The Bear (2019)None
Towton Novice Chase (G2)WetherbyNoneVintage Clouds (2017), Green Flag (2014)
Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase (G3)CheltenhamNoneShantou Flyer (2018), Our Mick (2013 & 2012), Tullamore Dew (2013)
Welsh National (G3)ChepstowNoneVintage Clouds (2019), Beware The Bear (2018)
Rowland Meyrick (G3)WetherbyNoneLake View Lad (2019)
Sky Bet Chase (Listed)DoncasterNoneHolywell(2016), Fruity O Rooney (2012)

KEY RACE TRAINERS (10 years)

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L Places
Jonjo O’Neill 6 2 40 21.00
David Pipe 6 2 33 16.00 1
Nick Williams 3 1 33 2.00 1
Alan King 4 1 25 2.00 -
Neil Mulholland 5 1 20 4.00 1
Nicky Henderson 5 1 20 4.00 1

How Beware The Bear Won 2019's Ultima Handicap Chase

Dour stayer Beware The Bear jumped the last in front answered every call from jockey Jeremiah McGrath to win the 2019 Ultima Handicap Chase by a length and a quarter.

The nine-year-old had had wind surgery since finishing fourth in the race a year earlier, and had only run twice since - landing fourth in the prestigious Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, and winning a Cheltenham handicap on New Year's Day in first-time blinkers.


2.50 CHELTENHAM - 2019 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE RESULT

  1. Beware The Bear 10/1
  2. Vintage Clouds 16/1
  3. Lake View Lad 25/1
  4. Big River 28/1

Trainer Nicky Henderson left those blinkers on for the Festival 70 days later, and he defied a 5lb rise in the handicap to win under a huge weight of 11st 8lb. Back in second was the 2018 third Vintage Clouds, with owner Trevor Hemmings's other runner Lake View Lad lumping topweight into third this time.

Bottomweight Big River finished fourth, just over three lengths behind the Nick Alexander-trained 25/1 shot.


Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase

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