Ultima Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Ultima Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

  • Won no more than one handicap chase
  • Run at least twice that season
  • Won over at least 3m
  • Won on a galloping track
  • Finished first six last time out

Get the latest Ultima Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Ultima Handicap Chase?

Applying the Ultima Handicap Chase trends last year, produced a shortlist of four: Shantou Flyer, O O Seven, Wakanda and Vintage Clouds - two going on to be placed in the 2018 Cheltenham Festival's first handicap chase.

Shantou Flyer (14/1) and Vintage Clouds (7/1) had run well in 'Key Races' (see below), and fitted the trends exposure profile, having won no more than one handicap chase - though Shantou Flyer had won more than the ideal three chases

They were also in the right age bracket, and came into the Festival in good form, race-fit, as did O O Seven (good on exposure trends), who had finished fourth in the previous year's Aintree Grand National, and 5th in the Grade 1 RSA Chase over the Ultima Handicap Chase course-and-distance.

Wakanda (25/1) made the trends shortlist because he was a Grade 2-winning chaser, who had won the highly-influential Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster last time out. That handicap was won by An Accordion before his victory in 2008, and is run on the same course-and-distance the 2010 and 2014 winners won over last time out too.

He was over-exposed, having won four handicap chases, but three of those were three years ago, and his rating had fallen 7lbs below his career-high of 155.

Winner Coo Star Sivola was at the head of the Cheltenham betting at 5/1, but did not make the shortlist on trends because he was only six-years-old - no horse from that age group winning since 1994 - and a long way down the weights; the recent trend being for higher-rated horses to win.


KEY ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged no older than 10
  • Had an average rating of 139.6
  • Finished in the first six in one of their last three starts
  • Had run at least twice that season

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Finished in the first six last time out, four winning
  • Had won no more than one handicap chase, if any
  • Had won over at least 3m over hurdles or fences
  • Had won on a galloping track
  • Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
  • Had run at Cheltenham before, five running over fences

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 132 or higher
  • Had won 1-3 chases
  • Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
  • Last ran between 18-45 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Were aged 6-8
  • Had run in at least five chases
  • Were officially rated 142 or higher, including the last five
  • Had run in at least one handicap chase, winning no more than one

Six of the last 10 winners…

  • Were running off their highest chase handicap mark
  • Featured in the top 12 on the weights list, 4 of the last 5 carrying more than 11st 1lb

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Were aged up to 11
  • Had run in two or more handicap chases

38/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Ultima Handicap Chase chase)

Key RaceRaceourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Cleeve Hurdle (G2)CheltenhamThe Druids Nephew (2015)The Young Master (2016)
Towton Novice Chase (G2)WetherbyNoneVintage Clouds (2017), Green Flag (2014)
January Handicap Chase (G3)CheltenhamNoneShantou Flyer (2018), Our Mick (2013 & 2012), Tullamore Dew (2013)
Paddy Power Chase (Grade B)LeopardstownNoneNoble Endeavour (2017), Grand Jesture (2015)

KEY RACE TRAINERS (10 years)​

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Jonjo O’Neill 7 3 43 25.00
D Pipe 6 2 33 16.00 1
Nick Williams 2 1 50 4.00 1
Alan King 6 1 17 0.00 1
Neil Mulholland 4 1 25 5.00 1

How Coo Star Sivola Won 2018's Ultima Handicap Chase

In a dazzling finish to the 2018 Ultima Handicap Chase, Coo Star Sivola just held on to give jockey Lizzie Kelly her very first Cheltenham Festival victory.

The Nick Williams-trained 5/1 favourite was still a novice, having only begun chasing the following October, and had one his first chase on a couple of weeks earlier, that 14-length handicap chase victory ensuring his place in the Ultima Handicap Chase line-up.


2.50 CHELTENHAM - 2018 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE RESULT

  1. Coo Star Sivola 5/1f
  2. Shantou Flyer 14/1
  3. Vintage Clouds 7/1
  4. Beware The Bear 14/1

Ridden prominently throughout the 3m1f chase, Coo Star Sivola went to the lead three fences out and was two lengths up at the last, where second Shantou Flyer made the mistake that cost him victory.

That eight-year-old, wearing a visor for the first time, would rallying under James Bowen, but ran out of track, finishing a neck behind the winner, early leader Vintage Clouds staying on to be third, six lengths behind the runner-up, and Beware The Bear taking fourth.


Cheltenham 2019 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase

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Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

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