US Open 2019 Men's Betting Preview, Latest Odds and Top Tips
- Back Dominic Thiem outright each way at 33/1 with Black Type
- Back Dominic Thiem to win the third quarter at 4/1 with Ladbrokes
- Back Denis Shapovalov to win third quarter at 22/1 with BetHard
- Back Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to meet in the final at 11/4 with Bet365
It’s almost time for the last Grand Slam of 2019, The US Open, which I must confess, always makes me feel a little sad. When it comes to tennis betting, the four majors are the highlights of the year and it’ll be a good four months until the 2020 Australian Open.
Djokovic The One To Beat Once Again
That said, the men’s game is a bit predictable at present with the big three dominating. And if you’ve come here looking for a genuine alternative to Novak Djokovic (11/10 with BetHard) in the men’s outright market, you’re out of luck. He might have been fortunate to beat Roger Federer (5/1 with 888Sport) in the Wimbledon final but, back on the hard courts of Flushing Meadows, it’s very hard to see anyone stopping him retaining his US Open crown. The bookies agree with the Serb a shade of odds-against to collect career Grand Slam title number 17.
Judging by Wimbledon and his recent win in Montreal, Rafael Nadal (4/1 with Redzone) is a near-certainty to reach the last four. The Spaniard looks as good as ever but beating Djokovic appears beyond him, certainly on any surface bar clay.
That leaves just Federer out of the big three with the Swiss beaten in straight sets by Andrey Rublev in the Cincinnati Masters last 16. That was a shock but Rublev had brought his ‘A’ game to court with Federer looking rusty having taken a break after his Wimbledon exertions.
I was hoping to take Federer on but it’s hard to see him losing sleep over anyone in his quarter. David Goffin in round four could be his first serious threat but the Swiss has an 8-1 record against him. Djokovic in the semis would almost certainly be a step too far.
Rublev (200/1 with William Hill) might have looked a lively outsider having come from nowhere to reach the quarter-finals in New York two years ago. But he promptly showed why he hasn’t threatened a serious breakthrough as he was swept aside by fellow Russian Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals.
Searching For Value
Medvedev was definitely worth a second look. And when I started writing my first draft the Friday before last, I did so safe in the knowledge that his price would hold given that there was no way he’d beat Novak Djokovic…
I had already written, “He took a set off Djokovic at the Australian Open (Denis Shapovalov was the only other man to manage that in Melbourne) and in February won the Sofia Open on indoor hardcourts which have been his favourite conditions in the past.
“But he has shown his adaptability this season, reaching the final of the Barcelona Open on clay where he lost out to Dominic Thiem. And this month he has been runner-up in the Washington Open and the Masters 1000 Rogers Cup, going down to Nick Kyrgios and Nadal respectively.
“Only outright bets are available right now and we’re going to have to hope Medvedev isn’t drawn in the same half as Djokovic to get a run for our money here. But the reason why he is probably worth a speculative each-way punt now is because he is 33/1 in places which is about twice what he should be.”
Of course, he beat Djokovic and his price pretty much halved. It has since collapsed further with 14/1 available with MansionBet and that just doesn’t look a value play to me. For a start, Cincinnati is one of the quicker Masters surfaces - a plus for Medvedev - and will probably play faster than Flushing Meadows.
The man who is next in the betting is Dominic Thiem who I do see as a threat, especially as he’s been drawn in the bottom half away from Djokovic. The Austrian finally translated his prowess on clay to hard courts by beating Federer in the Indian Wells final for his first Masters 1000 triumph. And despite being thumped by Medvedev in Montreal, after which he claimed “the battery was empty” following travel and long matches, it would be premature to write him off just yet.
Thiem The Value Play
Thiem’s draw has been reasonably kind too although Nadal in the semi-finals would be tough. The 33/1 with Black Type looks fair enough for an each-way outright bet, as does the 4/1 with Ladbrokes about him winning the third quarter.
It's certainly not a gimme - he'll likely face the winner of the all-Canadian first-round clash between Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime, and then probably one of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Nick Kyrgios in the quarters - but if he's on song it's very achievable.
I usually begin my analysis with a look at court speeds but the big three are unlikely to be hindered greatly by any variance in pace. After years of being reasonably quick, organisers deliberately slowed the courts down last year. A repeat would help Thiem but we will have to wait and see.
Looking further down the betting, Alexander Zverev is a shadow of his former self, yet he’s as short as 16/1 in places with the best tennis betting sites, which is ridiculously short. While Tsitsipas appears to be feeling the effects of a heavy workload this year. Stan Wawrinka looks past his best, and Nick Kyrgios is Nick Kyrgios.
I was briefly tempted by the temperament Australian given that he wouldn’t face any of the big three before the semi-finals. But I wouldn’t be all that confident about him getting past Steve Johnson in round one and I still think Wimbledon is the Slam where he is most likely to go deep.
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Shapovalov Too Big A Price To Ignore
That third quarter is the most open. And I think one player worth backing to win it, purely from a price perspective, is Shapovalov. At 22/1 with BetHard, he’s more than three times the price of Auger-Aliassime and Bautista-Agut which is puzzling. The 20-year-old looks at ease having recently linked up with former top-10 player Mikhail Youzhny, and it’s just two years ago since he reached the semi-finals of the Rogers Cup. If he can get past Auger-Aliassime in round one, and Thiem in round three, he could make the semis.
But it looks to be all about the big three and two players in particular. I keep going back to the Australian Open where Nadal looked awesome until he ran into Djokovic. In a Slam which is sadly lacking for betting opportunities, due to the dominance of the old stagers, I think the 11/4 with Bet365 about the pair contesting the final is more than fair.
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