Wells Fargo Championship Odds, Tips & Top Golfers to Back

Matt Cooper

April 30th, 2019

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Quick Tips

• Bet Rory McIlroy to win at 6/1 with Karamba.
• Bet Webb Simpson to win at 21/1 with Karamba.
• Bet Robert Castro to win at 160/1 with 888Sport.

What better way to warm up for next month’s PGA Championship than a return to a course that hosted that tournament just 18 months ago?

Well, while many in this week’s field will no doubt be thinking that way, Tiger Woods is keeping his powder dry. He’s no doubt wary of the burnout that seemed somewhat obvious in the aftermath of his Tour Championship win last September and as such it makes sense to give this week a swerve and be fully ready for the challenges to come this summer.

The Course

Quail Holllow in North Carolina has been in use on the PGA Tour for most of the 21st Century and in that time 15 champions have been crowned in this tournament, plus Justin Thomas in that 2017 PGA Championship.

Shortly after the 2013 event the greens were ripped up after they had been metaphorically ripped to pieces by the players who hated them that year. They are now Bermuda grass surfaces with Poa overseeded. Ahead of the PGA there were also major re-routing changes to the layout and extensive thinning out of the trees.

The Winner’s Profile

Big hitters thrive here. Rory McIlroy is a two-time champion, Thomas is no slouch for the tee, nor are the likes of other winners such as JB Holmes, Jason Day and Anthony Kim (remember him?). Tiger also won here in his heyday.

Also look for sharp putters because since the new greens were laid the winners have flourished in the putting stats. And golf betting fans best not forget that notion that this event tends to be won by major winners or players with the ability to contend in them.

Best of the Favorites

Rory McIlroy is the short-priced favorite, but there remain plenty of good reasons PGA betting fans should follow the Northern Irishman. You might be wary of his T21st in the Masters, but you might equally think it will put fire in his belly.

His record this year in stroke play before Augusta was relentless: six starts, six top-6s, five of them top-5s, one win. On the course he has two wins in this tournament, was also second in 2012 and fourth in 2016.

“I love this place,” he said last year. “I play well, but I feel like I don’t have to play that good and I can still get it around. So yeah, it’s a very comfortable golf course for me. I like trees. No, seriously. I like tree-lined golf courses. I like that it gives you definition, I like that it frames holes for you. I love that here.”

Note that he said that after the thinning out operation so it still holds true for him, and you can bet on him at 6/1 with Karamba.

Each Way Value

For those looking to go the route of each way betting, Webb Simpson fits the bill this week in a number of respects, although in truth being a really big hitter is not one of them. But he putts well, he’s a sneaky major championship winner and a course member. He’s also got some history with this event.

Back in 2012 he led after 18 and 54 holes before ending the week fourth. Three years later he was second and on that occasion he had been first after 36 holes. He was fifth in the Masters, which included a stellar 64 on Saturday, and then he notched a 65 in Round 3 of the Heritage on his way to T16th.

He’s one to watch when his form starts to bubble and said of his relationship with the track in 2014:

“There is a comfort here before I even tee it up which I think helps me. I know different wind directions, pin placements. I think it hurt me the first couple years here. I put too much pressure on myself, but I’m not putting any pressure on myself anymore. It’s more just I know that, hey, you know this golf course as good as anybody.”

You can bet him at 21/1 with FanDuel.

The Outsider

Robert Castro might be able to ride the form wave after having grabbed a tie for fifth in last week’s Zurich Classic alongside Cameron Tringale, but there is a lot more to his case this week than just good vibes.

He missed the cut in the Texas Open (his last solo start) but before that he was T-9th at halfway at Innisbrook, T-6th after three rounds at PGA National and T-9th after 54 holes in Puerto Rico. He was also T-8th in this event in 2014 and second in 2016. Grab him at 160/1 with 888Sport.