What NBA Win Totals Should You Bet the Over in 2018/19?

Mark Strotman

August 31st, 2018

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For those interested in NBA betting prior to the start of the season, it's all about over/under betting season win totals. But which teams should you be backing the over for the 2018-2019 season? We've broken down the top 7 NBA teams you should consider betting their over when it comes to season win totals.

Now if you're new to the market, we suggest first checking out what NBA trends are worth considering when betting over/under win totals but if this isn't your first stab at the market, feel feel to move onto our our top 7 teams.

1. Philadelphia 76ers Over 54.5 Wins

   This may seem like a huge number to start with, but the Sixers are the real deal. Two MVP candidates, a weaker Eastern Conference and one of the best coaches in the business have this team eyeing 60 wins. That may sound aggressive, but they won 52 games last year and that was with Joel Embiid missing 18 games. This team is primed to make a jump to “great” in 2018-19.

2. Utah Jazz Over 48.5 Wins

   Quin Snyder and the Jazz didn’t skip a beat after Gordon Hayward departed for Boston last offseason. Donovan Mitchell playing like a 10-year veteran and Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert led the way, and they finished the regular season winning 17 of 20 games before crushing the Thunder in the playoffs. They’re riding serious momentum, added Grayson Allen in the draft and have a budding star in Mitchell. There won’t be a sophomore slump.

3. Denver Nuggets Over 46.5 Wins

   Nikola Jokic is ready for stardom, the young backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris is ready to explode, and Paul Millsap, Isaiah Thomas and Will Barton provide veteran leadership. It’s all shaping up for the Nuggets to jump from good to very good in Year 2 under Mike Malone. A daunting Western Conference might have them underrated on a night-to-night basis, but as a whole this team is ready to exceed expectations. That works well with our trend.

4. Milwaukee Bucks Over 46.5 Wins

   An increasing win total each of the last three seasons, the Bucks may have taken care of the weakest link in their franchise: the head coach. Mike Budenholzer took a Hawks team that oddsmakers predicted would win 40.5 games and reeled off 60 victories in 2014-15. And now he’s got Giannis Antetokounmpo and a veteran core that could make another jump in the East. They seem destined for 50 wins.

5. New Orleans Pelicans Over 44.5 Wins

   Anthony Davis isn’t regressing to any mean. Last year’s 48-win campaign shocked just about everyone, and additions of Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle will keep the Pelicans in the mix for a 50-win season. That goes for games against the spread, too. Davis is going to be an MVP frontrunner much of the year, and he’s singlehandedly going to cover spreads with a monster line every now and then. They’re one of our favorite picks here.

6. Miami Heat Over 40.5 Wins

   The Miami Heat aren’t going to have the Celtics and Sixers looking in the rear-view mirror, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be successful. Like most teams on this list, the Heat have a rock-solid head coach. They have depth. They play in the East. They won 44 games last year while dealing with myriad injuries. We like this team flying under the radar, as the over-under win total suggests, meaning they’ll be good value night-to-night against the spread.

7. Memphis Grizzlies Over 33.5 Wins

   Though that 40-win total seems to be the threshold, we’ll throw in a wild card. The Grizzlies were abysmal last year but will get a healthy Mike Conley back, signed Kyle Anderson and drafted Jaren Jackson Jr. They were also actively tanking. They might not get to .500 but we like them to get past 33.5 wins. Their defense is certainly good enough to surprise against the spread.