What to Consider When NBA Basketball Spread Betting
There are a handful of tips to consider when betting NBA point spreads, the most popular NBA betting market around the world. From venue to scheduling to injuries and player trends, you can put yourself in the best position to earn a win if you're willing to consider these factors when wagering NBA spread bets.
Don’t Worry About Home and Away
Contrary to popular belief, home teams don’t hold an advantage when it comes to the point spread. True, in terms of head to head the home team is far more likely to win; from 2008 to 2018 home teams won better than 59 percent of regular season and playoff games straight-up.
But in regards to the point spread, from 2008 to 2018 home teams covered just 49.2 percent of the time. It actually paid during that 10-year stretch to bet the road team. And in that same 10-year span, there wasn’t all that much distinction between home favorites and home underdogs.
Home favorites covered 49.4 percent of the time, while home underdogs covered 48.4 percent of the time. This isn’t necessarily grounds to simply hammer the road team; it’s more an indication that oddsmakers take into account a team playing at home. They’re more likely to win, but it’s a toss-up whether they’ll cover.
Schedule, Travel and Days Off
In recent years the NBA has lengthened its season to help with the rigors of the traveling schedule to keep players healthy and, more importantly, on the floor. So while back-to-backs and four games in five nights are becoming rarer, comparing each teams’ rest schedule is important.
Giving the nod to a team with an additional day of rest is a smart play. Or, again, a team that is playing the final game of a clumped-together stretch of the schedule.
The same goes for a team on the tail end of a road trip. Though home teams are no more likely to cover than a road team, the road team is – by definition – traveling. If they’ve been doing it for a handful of days then it becomes significant. Like everything in the gambling world, context is critical.
Oddsmakers take serious injuries into consideration when making their lines. If James Harden suffered a sprained ankle and has been ruled out for the remainder of the week, that’s been taken into consideration with the spread.
But as the NBA in general continues to find more rest for its stars, day-to-day injuries arise that leave plenty of players with questionable tags heading into gameday. Sportsbooks hedge on whether someone who would change the line will play, but you’ll see a spread plummet (or rise) if said player winds up playing or not playing.
The best indicator – in this author’s experience – of determining whether someone will play is his participation in that morning’s shootaround. All teams have them, unless they played the previous night, so reporters from those teams will have updates on whether a player was active.
The shootarounds are no more than getting a few shots up, going over scouting reports on the opposition and running through a handful of plays and sets the team will use that night. But they’re important, and more often than not it gives a good read on a player’s status.
In scenarios where teams are playing on back-to-backs, it’s probably safer to err on the side of caution and assume a player is out if he played the previous night. There’s no exact rhyme or reason to a player sitting or not. But shootaround should give you a clear idea to where a team is leaning on playing or resting a player.
Teams Bounce Back
These are professionals, and they don’t like underperforming. And perhaps oddsmakers overvalue a winning team or underestimate a losing team, but there is a small trend within it. From 2008 to 2018, teams coming off a straight-up loss covered the next game 50.5 percent of the time.
That may not seem like a huge advantage, but consider that a team coming off a win covers the line in their next game just 49.4 percent of the time.
More often than not the highs aren’t that high and the lows aren’t that low over the course of an 82-game season. It’s lowest on our list for a reason, and it’s not to say that losing streaks don’t happen, but teams will find ways to keep it close.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Bet £10 Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365
Bet £10, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
50% Deposit Bonus up to £100 Promo Code: FBWELS18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New UK customers only; 6x wager requirement with 90 day expiry; Only sports bets contribute to wagering; Min. 2 selections at 1.4 min odds per selection; Max £100 per bet. 18+. T&C's Apply. Please bet responsibly. begambleaware.org
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.