Blackjack Strategy: The Statistical Strategy

Blackjack Strategy: The Statistical Strategy

Blackjack often leads to the debate of how much of a player’s success in the game is down to skill, and how much is down to pure luck. The simple answer is that both factors are significant, and although a player relies on kind hands, knowing how to handle your cards is the key to any success. Blackjack is actually the casino table game where the House has its least statistical advantage, but in order to take advantage of this fully, you must first be aware of basic strategy.

Basic Blackjack Strategy

The basic strategy in Blackjack involves a system that relies solely on statistics. Some stick rigidly to the system, while others take into account other factors influencing the table. This is, in a sense, a form of card counting, but all these techniques aim to minimise the House’s already narrow advantage.

Dealer's Upcard

4, 5, 6

A player’s best chance of winning comes when the Dealer’s Upcard is a 4, 5 or 6, as they cannot win outright from here with just one more card. What’s more, if their second card is worth 10 (and there is a 30% chance it will be), then they’ll be on 14, 15 or 16 and more likely to go bust.

In this situation it's key not to go bust yourself. To avoid this, it is best to stand on anything 12 or over in order to give yourself the best chance, and to double on a 9, 10 or 11 to maximise your potential profit. Blackjack is all about capitalising when the odds are with you, and doubling down in a strong situation is a great way to do just that.

2, 3

The Dealer’s next worst Upcard is a 2 or a 3. However, unlike the previous set, the Dealer won’t be in as much trouble upon hitting a 10. The likelihood of the Dealer hitting two 10’s in a row is around 10%, so relying on a bust isn’t so rewarding. Instead, as the Dealer has the opportunity to take multiple cards without busting, it’s important to try and achieve the highest value possible. So standing on 13+ is the slightly riskier strategy here, as there’s only a 30% chance of going bust from 12.

7, 8, 9

The next range of 7, 8 and 9 is tricky territory, as the Dealer has the chance at making a winning hand from just one more card. So relying on a bust here is unwise and you’ll have to risk a bust of your own on anything from 12-16, but 17+ is a score that can compete and shouldn’t be risked.

10

If the Dealer lands a value 10 card as their Upcard, they’ll have a 38% chance of hitting 20 or 21 with their next card. Your best chance is to stand on anything 17+, but unfortunately the dealer has the advantage, as the outcome relies more or less solely on their second card.

Ace

Even worse than that, though, is if the Dealer is dealt an Ace. From here they have a 30% chance of hitting Blackjack, and a 62% chance of hitting a winning score with just one more card. These moments are where the luck shines through, making it even more important to stick to a strategy for the rest of your time at the casino.

If you want to try this statistical strategy out before heading to a real life casino, head over to ComeOn Casino today.

Recommended Casino Sites

shiled of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted verified Verified
  1. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £400 + 50 Bonus Spins

  2. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £300 + 100 Zee Spins + 500 Zee Points

    18+ New Players only. Gamble responsibly. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New players only. Valid for 15 days after 1st deposit. Min Deposit £20 Max Bonus Bet £5 Winnings from spins capped at £50 First 100 Zee spins: 10/day. Spins must be used within 24 hours, Funds within 30 days. Bonus funds are separate to Cash funds, and are subject to 35 wagering (bonus + cash). 18+. T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org Visit Site
  3. 200% Welcome Bonus up to £500

  4. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £500 + 50 Bonus Spins

  5. 100% Welcome Bonus up to 25 Mega Spins

    18+ New Players only. Gamble responsibly. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply First Deposit Only. Min. deposit: £10, max. Game: Spina Colada, Spin Value: £1, Max Mega Spins: 25. WR 60x mega spins winning amount (only Slots count) within 30 days. Max bet is 10% (min £0.10) of the mega spin winnings amount or £5 (lowest amount applies). Mega Spins must be used before deposited funds. First Deposit/Welcome Bonus can only be claimed once every 72 hours across all Casinos. Bonus Policy applies. Visit Site
  6. Play £10, Get £10 Bonus + 30 Extra Spins on Double Bubble

  7. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £200

  8. Spend £10, Get 30 Extra Spins on Monopoly Paradise Mansion

  9. 10% Cashback + £500 Welcome Package

    18+ New Players only. Gamble responsibly. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New Customers. 5% cashback on day 1-7 deps, 10% on day 8-14. Max £1000 p/w. Max 1st deposit bonus £200, 2nd max £300. Min £20 deposit. 40x wagering, valid for 30 days. Game weighting, payment restrictions and betting limits apply. Casino Only. T&Cs apply. Visit Site
  10. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £100 + 200 Extra Spins

    18+ New Players only. Gamble responsibly. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Spins: New customers only. 20 spins after signing up. 180 more spins after first deposit 20 immediately and a further 20 per day for the next eight days after depositing. Spins and bonus wagering on Age of the Gods slot games only. Wager 20x before withdrawing. Welcome Bonus: New customers only. Minimum deposit £20. Maximum bonus £100. Wager 40x before withdrawing. Game weighting applies please see below table. ID must be verified prior to participation. Bonus Betting limits: Slots - £5 All other games 10% of bonus amount. Payment method restrictions and T&Cs apply Visit Site
alert Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
alert Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Casino Strategy Articles

Casino Navigation

Latest Casino News

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Trading Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2020 GDC Trading Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Trading Limited.
Terms and Conditions  |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4 Android GET IT ON facebook Download_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917 twitter
×