Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 5 Selections For Wednesday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair, where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 314.37 points from 172.50 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at a whopping +141.87pts overall - thanks to a sensational recent spell that included Lamar Canyon's win at 150/1 on Tuesday.
Here are Rhys' tips for today, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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16:23 Newton Abbot: Scoresby - 1pt Win @ 4/1
Scoresby was a winner on handicap debut at Fontwell last time, and I think he has a good chance of following up off a 5lb higher mark this afternoon at Newton Abbot.
The best of his point form suggested an opening mark of 78 could prove to be a fair bit on the lenient side, and so it proved as he travelled strongly into the lead jumping two out and eased a couple of lengths clear before his rider had to be stronger on the run-in when Scoresby looked to be idling.
Scoresby hasn’t always looked the most willing under pressure in the closing stages, so it was encouraging that he didn’t completely down tools in that scenario at Fontwell.
The manner in which he travelled to the front suggests a 5lb rise could have underplayed his superiority over that field.
I think he should be closer in the market to Reel Orange, who now has to take on the boys after a couple of recent wins in mares company.
Any 3/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 16:23 Newton Abbot: Scoresby - 1pt Win
17:47 Wexford: Emesteraye - 0.5pt Win @ 9/1
Emesteraye makes her handicap debut in this 0-100 at Wexford, and I think she has a decent chance of making it a successful one - if able to get back to the level that she showed at this track on debut.
Her jumping wasn’t always too slick that day, but she travelled well for a long way before looking a bit green when asked for her effort and finishing sixth.
The winner of that race contests the previous rated hurdle today and is rated 123 as is the third, while the fourth is now rated 130.
Emesteraye hasn’t built on that in two runs since, but I think the very testing conditions at Gowran were likely against her next time.
She was never put into contention last time at Fairyhouse, although it was a bit disappointing that she couldn’t make up some late ground.
She makes her return after a 179-day break with that absence possibly the result of keeping her away from winter ground.
Her action suggests a return to this quicker surface will help her cause and the track seemed to suit on debut.
Her jumping is a slight concern and maybe it will turn out that she is no longer the horse she was on debut for whatever reason but I think she’s a little overpriced considering the level of that run and any 7/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 17:47 Wexford: Emesteraye - 0.5pt Win
17:47 Wexford: Lunar Landscape - 0.5pt Win @ 18/1
Another handicap debutant who appeals in the same race is Lunar Landscape and the switch to better ground looks an obvious positive for his chance too.
He didn’t show much on his sole start for Charles Byrnes on heavy ground at Fairyhouse, and both runs over hurdles for this yard have been on similar ground against much tougher company than he faces today.
Lunar Landscape showed some ability on the flat on his first few starts last year, when returning from a long break and those were on good ground so racing on quicker ground for the first time over hurdles could bring some improvement from him.
It may turn out that he’s just not a hurdler, but he’s yet to have a scenario in this sphere where he could reasonably be expected to show his best.
I think the market is underestimating his chance to improve in a moderate contest and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 17:47 Wexford: Lunar Landscape - 0.5pt Win
20:19 Wexford: Siege Of Carthage - 0.5pt Win @ 11/1
Siege Of Carthage was a selection in this column when finishing second to Dromard on his rules debut and I’m hopeful that he can go one place better this evening.
He had shown promise in a good maiden point on debut, while looking in need of time and a sharper test.
He still looked a bit green at Gowran and possibly not in love with the deep ground, but he made good headway early in the home straight to be the only danger to Dromard with two furlongs to go - before the effort flattened out and he was left behind by the winner, who has since finished fourth in Grade 1 company.
I’m not certain that this track will be ideal for Siege Of Carthage, particularly in the hands of an inexperienced rider.
However, I think the step up in trip combats that fear to some degree and this doesn’t look a particularly deep bumper on quality.
Any 8/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 20:19 Wexford: Siege Of Carthage - 0.5pt Win
20:19 Wexford: Rumi Rock - 0.5pt Win @ 25/1
The trip is a slight worry for another horse who started their career in the pointing field and makes their rules debut this evening.
Rumi Rock had four starts in Irish points, the latest two being for this yard.
He showed some promise on debut behind Bud Fox before running as though there was something wrong next time, and the 11-month absence following that suggests that was likely the case.
On his return to action and first start for Power, he was still close up when nearly getting rid of his jockey at three out, and while he remained within the chasing pack, he could never get back to the leading pair after.
It was a bit disappointing how tamely he faded out of contention in the closing stages at Ballindenisk last time, for all that I think that was a decent contest.
However, switching to bumper company looks a positive for him, and the quality of the best of those performances suggests he has a chance of being competitive.
The worry is the extended trip for this bumper as it would have been good to see him over a trip nearer two miles.
There has been a little early money for him, but I think he’s still a shade overpriced and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
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