Best Bet For Sunday’s NASCAR Race In Kansas
With 13 races down, there has been enough track time and data to make more informed betting decisions on the NextGen car.
The last three weeks have seen my outright picks contend for the win. Erik Jones (+7000) was leading in the tri-oval at Talladega on the final lap before getting caught up in a crash.
Chase Elliott (+900) won at Dover for the first outright winning ticket, and Kevin Harvick (+1600) ran near the front of the field at Darlington and recorded a fourth-place finish.
When it comes to picking a race winner, you want to see your driver at least contend, so I’ll take the last three weeks.
Kansas Speedway Hosts AdventHealth 400
Now the Cup Series heads to a more traditional track in Kansas. It’s the “cookie-cutter” 1.5-mile tri-oval that many NASCAR betting fans tire of seeing on the schedule. But with so many races at this type of track, it’s worth it to take a look into drivers who have thrived on these 1.5-milers.
Sportsbooks do not expect as much parity at Kansas this weekend compared to other tracks. Remember Talladega? No driver was under 10/1 to win, and 19 were under 25/1.
This week, five drivers are shorter than 10/1 and just 12 are below 25/1.
Sure, superspeedways always have a higher level of variance, but unless there are unforeseen circumstances, I wouldn’t expect too many long shots to hit at these types of tracks.
Best Bet Chase Elliott +700 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Right now, it’s hard to pick against a Hendrick car. Hendrick is responsible for five of the 12 wins this year and nearly made it six if not for Joey Logan’s bump-and-run on William Byron for the win at Darlington.
The four Hendrick drivers also rank in the top eight in average finish over the last six races at Kansas. Chase Elliott is first (5.2), Alex Bowman is sixth (8.8), William Byron is seventh (9.7) and Kyle Larson is eighth (10.5).
Elliott and Larson top the odds board at FanDuel Sportsbook at +700, while Byron is +1000 and Bowman is +1300.
I’m going with the historical stats and recent form and backing Elliott this week.
In the last six races at Kansas, he has recorded four top fives, including two seconds, a fourth and a fifth. He also won the October 2018 Kansas race and has shown excellent form with an eighth, seventh, first and fifth over his last four races.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see either of the Hendrick drivers win this weekend, but it’s Elliott who will get my money.
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