Best Bets to Make on Today's MLB Schedule

Best Bets to Make on Today's MLB Schedule
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

St. Louis Cardinals +100 at Milwaukee Brewers -110

8:10 p.m. ET

This is the third series between these NL Central divisional rivals, who are tied for the division lead with identical 39-31 records. 

This is the third game of a four-game series and the teams split the first two games, with the Brewers winning 2-0 and the Cardinals winning 6-2 Tuesday night. 

The Brewers' troubles start at the plate with a near obsession with launch angle and swinging for home runs no matter the count or situation. 

The Brewers rank 24th with a .232 batting average, but rank fourth at 1.29 home runs per game. 

The Cardinals rank fourth with a .254 batting average and 16th with 1.04 home runs per game. 

In addition to having the better and more efficient offense, the Cardinals have the better pitcher going tonight in veteran Adam Wainwright, who is 5-5 in 13 starts with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP in 79 1/3 innings. 

Seven of his past eight starts have been quality starts as defined by completing six or more innings and allowing three or fewer earned runs. 

He is also 20-6, making 14 units on the moneyline, in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs over the past two seasons.

I will back the Cardinals on the moneyline in this one tonight.

 

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American League Best Bet

Cleveland Guardians +140 at Minnesota Twins -150, and a total of eight runs

 7:40 p.m. ET

Here are the situational trends and angles that support a betting opportunity on the Over in this game:

  • The Guardians are 25-10 when facing an AL pitcher with an ERA of 3.40 or lower over the past two seasons.
  • The Twins are 42-22 Over following two consecutive games in which they did not commit any errors over the past two seasons.
  • The Twins are 43-18 Over after losing three of their past four games over the past two seasons.
  • Rocco Baldelli is 21-8 Over following a loss to a divisional rival installed as a -150 or greater favorite as the Twins’ manager.

The Bettings Angle On This Game

  1. Betting the Over with any team with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs.
  2. The team is batting no better than .260.
  3. The team is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 2.00 or lower in his last three starts.
  4. The team is facing an AL opponent starting a pitcher posting an ERA of 3.20 or lower.
  5. These situational bets have earned a 115-59 record, good for 66% winning bets over the past 20 seasons and a 23-9 for 72% winning bets over the past three seasons.

 

 

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Quick Pitches

These are some other bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  1. Take Pirates’ Keegan Thompson to allow more than 5.5 hits at +118 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  2. Take Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases at +115 at BetMGM.
  3. Take Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes to have two or more hits at +410 at FanDuel.
  4. Take the Braves’ Dansby Swanson +to hit a home run at 420 at Fan Duel.
  5. Take the Guardians’ Triston McKenzie Over 3.5 earned runs allowed T +110 at DraftKings.

 

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