Boston Celtics Hoping the Zig-Zag System Works In Their Favor in Game 4

Boston Celtics Hoping the Zig-Zag System Works In Their Favor in Game 4
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Miami will try to take a big lead in the series against the Boston Celtics tonight. The Heat is up 2-1 going into Game 4 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC at Boston. 

How will it affect your NBA betting strategy?

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Will the Zig-Zag System Continue to Work?

In this best-of-seven series, the Miami Heat regained home-court advantage with a road upset win over the Boston Celtics at TD Garden Saturday. 

So far in this series, the teams have alternated wins and losses, commonly referred to as the “Zig-Zag” betting system. 

If a team lost straight-up in their previous playoff game, then the bet is on them in the next game because the pressure is on them to win and not fall further behind in the series.

When a team wins Game 1 of a playoff series, then the road team wins Game 2, followed by the road team winning Game 3, the bet should be on the host team. 

Those teams have produced a 16-10 straight-up record and 15-10-1 against the spread record for 60% winning bets spanning the past 20 playoff seasons. The Over-Under in these 26 games has been an even 13-13-0.

Looking at a simpler query, the database reveals that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a straight-up loss, regardless of location, and are the better seed, are 37-12 straight-up and 27-22 against the spread for 55% winning bets, including an even 19-28-2 Over-Under record for 60% winning Under bets in the past 10 seasons. 

The home favorite, in this case, is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread with a 3-4 Over-Under record over the last five playoff seasons. 

This query supports a bet on the Celtics and for the Zig-Zag Betting System to continue.

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Is There an Opportunity Betting Over or Under?

The Over has been the winning bet in all three games of this series. 

For tonight’s game, the market has opened with a total at 208.5 points and is now 207.5. It has been higher before each game.

In Game 4 of an NBA playoff series and the total is higher than the Game 3 total, which was higher than the Game 2 total, which was higher than the Game 1 total, the Under has produced a 12-5-1 record, good for 71.6% winning bets over the last 20 playoff seasons. 

The home team in this situation is 11-7 straight-up and 10-8 against the spread.

Playoff teams coming off a home loss installed as a favorite (Celtics were priced as 6.5-point home favorites in Game 3) have produced a 197-138 straight-up record for 59% wins. It also has a 184-148-3 against the spread record, for 55.4% winning bets, and a 148-180 Over-Under record, good for 55% winning Under bets spanning the last 20 playoff seasons. 

Now, let’s slice this dataset a bit more to include playoffs teams that lost as a home favorite of not more than double-digits in their previous game and are now favorites between 4.5 and 9.5 points has seen them bounce back with a 71-18 straight-up record for 80% wins and 49-39-1 against the spread for 56% winning bets and including a 36-50-3 Over-Under record good for 58% winning Under bets spanning the last 20 playoff seasons.

I am going to the window and bet the Under.

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Other Bets I Like Tonight

Take Jaylon Brown Under 28.5 points and assists at -110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Take Al Horford Under 1.5 made 3-pointers at -115 as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Take Bam Adebayo making the first field goal, a 2-pointer, +375 as offered at BetMGM.

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