Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Shorten Amid Formal Inquiry
With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the political betting markets heated up at numerous European sportsbooks where political betting is allowed, including at Irish bookmaker Paddy Power.
Trump's odds to be impeached shorted throughout the day Wednesday, from +120 (6/5) in the morning to -110 (10/11) in the afternoon. Trump has the same odds of not getting impeached. Back in June it was +200 (2/1) that he would not be impeached.
Trump, who was listed at +120 (6/5) in 2020 U.S. presidential election odds earlier this week, slipped to +125 (5/4) on Wednesday. He still has the best odds among all candidates because a Democratic challenger has not yet been selected. But Trump is now under scrutiny again after news of a whistleblower complaint broke last week. He could certainly see his odds shift in a big way depending on how things play out in the U.S. House of Representatives in the weeks and months ahead.
Elizabeth Warren is currently the favorite in Democratic primary betting odds at +125 (5/4). She is at +300 (3/1) in the general election, up from +350 (7/2) before Tuesday’s decision by Pelosi.
President Donald Trump Impeachment Prop Bets Offered
|Will Trump be impeached?||No -110 (10/11) |
Yes -110 (10/11)
|Will Trump be impeached in his first term in office?||No -110 (10/11) |
Yes -110 (10/11)
|Will Trump complete his first term in office?||Yes -400 (1/4)|
No +250 (5/2)
|Will Trump resign?||No -1200 (1/12)|
Yes +500 (5/1)
|Who will cease to be leader first?||Boris Johnson -300 (1/3)|
Donald Trump +200 (2/1)
Note: Political betting is not available in the U.S. All above odds are from Paddy Power.
Political Drama on Both Sides of the Atlantic
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is another controversial politician having served as Leader of the Conservative Party in place of Theresa May since July. May was unable to reach a Brexit deal and resigned as Prime Minister this spring, leaving Johnson to deal with the complex and divisive results from a 2016 vote to leave the European Union.
Johnson’s plan to leave the EU with or without a deal by Oct. 31 has already fallen through, and there’s speculation the embattled politician could be forced out or step down as a result.
The Trump whistleblower complaint centered around July conversations between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky during which Trump instructed the foreign leader to investigate Democratic political opponent Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden, who was on the board of a Ukrainian gas company. Trump has acknowledged delaying military aid ahead of those calls.
RELATED: Who Will Be the Unity Prime Minister if Boris Johnson is Ousted?
Trump Ukraine Call Details Released
The Trump administration released a summary transcript of the conversation Wednesday morning following the House’s decision to proceed with its official impeachment inquiry. Media and social media users reported on the transcript in real time after Trump tweeted to insist it was ‘a perfect call’ with the Ukrainian leader.
The House Judiciary Committee will now decide whether to investigate the allegations, and impeachment would ultimately require a majority vote in the House. It’s possible Trump could be impeached and remain in office, so betting on impeachment isn’t the same as betting he will not finish his first term as President.
Joe Biden, the frontrunner in polls, was listed at +750 (15/2) to win the 2020 election on Wednesday, down slightly from Tuesday’s +700 (7/1) but still second among Democrats.
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