NBA Finals 2021 Betting

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Are you a fan of postseason NBA betting? Then you will want to check out our ultimate NBA Finals betting guide. As most basketball betting fans know, while there are fewer surprises in the NBA title round than in other sports championships, there’s still plenty of action to bet on.

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NBA Finals Betting Tips


Betting the NBA Finals

Much like NBA betting during the regular season, sportsbooks use a point-spread system to predict the winner of each contest and the margin of victory. Bookmakers also establish an over/under for how many points will be scored by both teams combined and whether or not the number will be higher (over) or lower (under).

For example, if Golden State is favored over Cleveland by 12 points and it’s expected to be a high scoring game, Golden State’s odds would look like this: GS -12.0, +215. Cleveland’s odds would look like this: CLE +12.0, +215. To cover the spread, Golden State would need to win by more than 12 points. To beat the spread, Cleveland would need to win the game or lose by less than 12 points.

Bettors can also wager moneylines, both on individual games and the series as a whole.

Moneylines are based on positive and negative figures and indicate how much money a better must wager to win $100 or how much a $100 bet would win. Negative numbers indicate how much you must bet to win $100. For example, if Golden State has a moneyline of -1200 it means you must bet $1200 to win $100.

Positive numbers indicate how much you'd win from a $100 bet. So if Cleveland has a moneyline of +350, it would mean a win of $350 on a $100 bet.

Sports books also offer the opportunity to bet on who will be leading after each quarter, at halftime and through three quarters with the opportunity to do in-play betting as well. Bettors will also have a host of prop bet options.


NBA Title Odds 2021

TeamTitle Odds
Los Angeles Lakers+350
Los Angeles Clippers+400
Milwaukee Bucks+500
Golden State Warriors+600
Brooklyn Nets+900
Miami Heat+900
Boston Celtics+1200
Toronto Raptors+1600
Denver Nuggets+2000
Dallas Mavericks+2200
Houston Rockets+2200
Philadelphia 76ers+3000
Utah Jazz+4000
Portland Trailblazers+5000
New Orleans Pelicans+7000
Oklahoma City Thunder+8000
Indiana Pacers+10000
Phoenix Suns+10000
Atlanta Hawks+15000
Chicago Bulls+15000
Memphis Grizzlies+15000
Minnesota Timberwolves+20000
Orlando Magic+20000
Washington Wizards+20000
Sacramento Kings+25000
San Antonio Spurs+25000
Charlotte Hornets+50000
Cleveland Cavaliers+50000
Detroit Pistons+50000
New York Knicks+50000

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NBA Finals Prop Bets

There are lots of prop bet options during the NBA Finals, both for the series and individual games. Bettors can also wager on who will win the Most Valuable Player award.

For example, some of the team prop bets for the 2018 NBA Finals included will there be a game-winning shot at the buzzer, an ejection or a suspension? What will be the highest margin of victory? Will there be an overtime game? Will the series go four, five, six or seven games?

There are typically prop bets on most major players’ scoring, assists and/or rebounds, as well as head-to-head proposition between opposing players.

Among the interesting individual prop bets in the 2018 NBA Finals included will LeBron James average a triple-double (10 or more points, 10 or more rebounds and 10 or more assists) and Kevin Durant’s three-point field-goal percentage.

When betting the length of the series, keep in mind that four-game sweeps are atypical – occurring in just nine in the first 72 NBA Finals – while the most common series length has been six games (26 of 72). Five- and seven-game series happen with roughly the same frequency, each about 25 percent of the time.

NBA Finals Betting Tips

The rise of so-called "superteams" in the NBA (squads with three or more stars) has led to fairly predictable results in the NBA Finals. From 2013-2019, in every season but two a No. 1 seed or betting favorite has won the NBA title.

The only seasons in which a No. 1 seed didn’t win during that span were 2017-18 and 2018-19. In the 17-18, the Warriors battled injuries during the regular season and finished as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. They were still -1075 to beat the Cavaliers, which they did.

In 18-19, the Toronto Raptors stunned the Warriors in six games to win their first ever NBA Championship. They were both the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed and a +230 underdog heading into the Finals.

The only other underdog to win the title since 2013 is Cleveland (+180) in the 2015-2016 season. That Cavaliers team also was the only squad to ever win an NBA Finals after trailing 3 games to 1.

Through the 2017-18 season, only seven third seeds, one fourth seed and one sixth seed have won the title. No five, seven or eight seeds have ever done so.


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Betting the NBA Postseason

While anything can happen in the NBA Playoffs, historical trends seem to hold a strong precedence in determining outcomes, something to keep in mind when betting the NBA Playoffs.

The most glaring example of this is the fact that no team that's lost the first three games of a series has ever come back to win that series.

This feat has been accomplished in other sports leagues, but never in the NBA which leads to many non-elimination games garnering "must-win" distinctions. Only three teams in NBA history have even come back to force Game 7 and that's only happened once (in 1951) in the NBA Finals.

There have been, however, 11 teams that have come back from 3-1 deficits in NBA history and four of those teams won the NBA Championship. The most recent accomplishment of this feat came in 2016 when the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Golden State Warriors marking the first time a team had ever blown a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals.

While this event is fresh on many NBA fans' minds, it's important to remember that such comebacks are extremely rare and in many instances not worth betting on.

Seeding has also played an incredibly relevant role in determining and predicting eventual NBA champions as No. 1 seeds have won 52 titles which amounts to 74.3 percent of all championships won since 1947.

Only 10 second seeds have ever won NBA Titles, the last one to do so being the 2012 Miami Heat. Only seven third seeds, one four seed and one six seed have accomplished the feat, while no five, seven or eight seeds have ever done so.

Road to the NBA Finals

The NBA Finals culminate a two-month long playoff season after an 82-game regular season and are a favorite among top betting markets the world over.

The overwhelming majority of NBA champions – more than 70 percent – have been No. 1 seeds, meaning they had the best record in their respective conference. Long shots rarely appear in NBA Finals, let alone win them. Still, the best-of-7 series does provide tremendous betting opportunities.

The NBA is split into two 15-team conferences, the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference, with 29 teams located in the United States and one in Canada. The top eight teams in each conference make the playoffs and are seeded 1 through 8, creating a bracket. Teams advance along that bracket and are not reseeded. Therefore in the conference semifinals, the winner of the 1-8 matchup meets the 4-5 winner, and the 2-7 winner meets the 3-6 winner.

Beginning with the 2015-16 season, the NBA began seeding its playoff teams by overall records within each conference rather than by rewarding division winners. Previously, the division winners received the top three seeds, even if a non-division winner had a better record than one of the division winners.

All rounds are best-of-7 series, with the team with the better record hosting Games 1, 2, 5 and 7. In the NBA Finals, the conference champion with the better record gets home-court advantage.

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Recent NBA Finals Winners

YearWinnerOpponentSeries
2020Lakers (-400)Heat4-2
2019Raptors (+230)Warriors4-2
2018Warriors (-1075)Cavaliers4-0
2017Warriors (-300)Cavaliers4-1
2016Cavaliers (+180)Warriors4-3
2015Warriors (-220)Cavaliers4-2
2014Spurs (-155)Heat4-1
2013Heat (-220)Spurs4-3
2012Heat (+155)Thunder4-1
2011Mavericks (+155)Heat4-2
2010Lakers (-190)Celtics4-3

FAQ


The NBA Finals, like the rest of the playoff rounds, consist of between four and seven games with the first team to four wins taking home the trophy.

Every NBA playoff round features a team with home-court advantaged based on regular season performance. The first two games of the Finals are played at that team’s arena, followed by two at the other team’s arena. If more games are necessary, Game 5 is played back at the team with home-court advantage’s arena, Game 6 at the other team’s arena and then it’s back to the original arena where the series started for Game 7.

The Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers have each won 17 and are tied for the most NBA Championships.

The team with the better record during the NBA regular season will be granted home-court advantage for the NBA Finals.

The NBA Finals will be broadcast nationally on ABC.

Yes, but you must live in a state with legalized sports betting to do so.

The Los Angeles Lakers are the favorites to win the 2021 NBA Finals with odds of +350.

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Contributors

Hi, I'm Adam Thompson

"Two decades covering sports and the evolution of online betting. My experience as a handicapper uniquely qualifies me to evaluate which operator is best."

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Reviewer since August 2019

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