With fast-paced and fiercely contested games, it’s no surprise that England’s Premier League is the most-watched league in the world and the center of soccer betting. It’s not just broadcasters and fans scrambling to be part of the action either – U.S. sports betting sites are constantly competing to deliver the most lucrative markets, the best prices and fresh special offers.
But how do you go about getting value for your money? Understanding the when, how and why of Premier League betting is crucial to ensuring you keep a positive return despite such a competitive market!
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Before the first game kicks off, gamblers should look for opportunities in the Premier League outright markets. The most popular include:
Premier League Winner | With the right statistics to hand, predicting the league’s winner before the first ball is kicked can be worth a punt. Take into consideration a team’s performance in the previous season and whether or not they have made any big signings.
Relegation | The three teams promoted from the Championship are usually among the favourites to go down, yet since the year 2000 there’s never been a season when all three recently promoted teams were relegated. Most frequently, just one of these sides goes down, so a relegation bet on a newcomer is not guaranteed. Gambling on a surprise relegation can pay dividends.
Top Goal Scorer | With a few notable exceptions, big signings rarely win the golden boot with a new team. Consecutive winners aren't all too common either, but in-form strikers are worth considering.
Top 10 Finish | Predicting a team to finish in the top ten is not as easy as it may seem when it comes to the Premier League and it’s unpredictable nature. Focus on the team’s previous seasons and where they have ended up in the table. If they have been top 10 every time, they may be worth a punt.
The best sports betting sites offer numerous variations on these themes, providing a range of risk and reward. For example, players can bet on sides finishing in the top two, three or four for smaller returns; or boldly consider a winner/top goal-scorer double for a really big win.
Timing Your Bets
One of the major considerations for anyone taking up Premier League betting is when to place bets. Jump in early and fresh developments could scupper your plans. Move too late and the odds can quickly shift. Fortunately, there are a number of simple ways to plan your timing to maximize your bets:
Seasonal Trends | The job of a Premier League manager is notoriously insecure, and gamblers are always invited to bet on the next man for the sack. November is historically the most dangerous month for Premier League managers. Similar trends exist for striker hot streaks, injuries and more.
Form | As with betting on a horse-race, form is vital. Clubs go through hot and cold streaks, and identifying a team on a run is key to making accurate predictions, particularly in the match winner markets.
In-Play Betting or Live Betting | As well as being exciting, in-play betting in soccer lets you capitalize on developments during a game. Top bookmakers also provide live stats, helping you to time your bets effectively. If you think your bet might be about to fail, most sites have a ‘cash out’ function that lets you claim your winnings before the final whistle.
Stats Betting
The Premier League has consistently been among the leagues with the highest amount of variation in its points spread. Put another way, the gap between the top and the bottom is one of the largest of the world’s top leagues. The implications of stats like these are huge, and potentially money-making in a number of ways.
Match Winner Markets | Yes, games can be unpredictable and shock results do happen, but the stats tell us that there are top teams who consistently win and bottom teams who don’t. Pick them out, back them consistently, and regular returns are likely.
Goal Scorer Markets | Identifying in-form strikers is important, but just as important is identifying when they’ll score.
Other Goal Markets | Away from the specific details of player form and psychology, markets like goals over/under and time of goal are excellent spaces to make use of cold hard stats. For example, it’s worth noting that the average number of goals per game has hovered between two and three in every single recent Premier League season. Look hard and you can also uncover trends in the times goals are scored.
Looking in detail at a team’s strategy and player statistics can reveal opportunities in surprising markets like corners over/under, cards per game and handicaps. Whichever you choose, the key to using statistics and trends effectively is applying a consistent, well thought-out strategy to your bets.
It's also important to take the timing of matches into account as domestic cup tournaments like the FA Cup can effect how managers set their squads for league matches.
Transfer Specials Betting
At the end of each season (and during the month of January) the transfer market opens up, and hundreds of players are transferred to and from the Premier League, often for millions of pounds. The transfer window opens some very interesting bets for anybody looking for something a little bit different.
By closely watching a player’s form and by analyzing the current transfer market, bettors can try to guess whether or not players will stay at their current club or sign with a new one. Top online U.S. sportsbooks offer odds on players going to specific clubs during each window. Keep an eye out for bets that don’t include loan deals or pre-contracts for players.
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