AAF Week 5 Odds, Tips and Best Bets to Consider Backing

AAF Week 5 Odds, Tips and Best Bets to Consider Backing

Week 5 AAF Odds

  • Orlando (-4) @ Birmingham – Moneyline: Orlando (-182), Birmingham (+146); O/U: 34
  • Salt Lake @ San Diego (-6) – Moneyline: Salt Lake (+180), San Diego (-223); O/U: 36
  • Memphis @ Atlanta (-1.5) – Moneyline: Memphis (+105), Atlanta (-129); O/U: 38.5
  • San Antonio @ Arizona (-2.5) – Moneyline: San Antonio (+115), Arizona (-143); O/U: 40

Bet all these lines and markets at PointsBet.


Week 5 AAF Best Bets

As we move into the second month of action in the AAF, it seems like the teams are finally settling in a little bit. Chemistry is being developed, teams are starting to come together and we’re getting a clearer picture of who’s who.

For the first time this season, the Arizona Hotshots, who entered the season as the favorite to win the championship, have fallen out of the favorite roll as Orlando has ascended to the top spot. They’re the last undefeated team in the league and they’ll face a tough test on the road this week when they face the Birmingham Iron, who are the only other team with a winning record in the AAF at 3-1.

Orlando Apollos (-4) at Birmingham Iron

Orlando has clearly been the best team in the AAF this season. Led by quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who leads the league with 1071 passing yards, and Charles Johnson, who leads the league with 410 receiving yards, the Apollos have looked very crisp. They’ve won three of their four games by nine points or more.

This week will be a tough test for them when they face the stout Birmingham defense, which has allowed a league-low 33 points through four games. The challenge is whether or not their offense will show up. Starting quarterback Luis Perez still hasn’t thrown a single touchdown pass this season and is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt. That makes this attack a fairly easy unit to stop.

I wrote about Birmingham being an overrated team last week and they lost, and I’m expecting them to suffer the same result in this spot too against the league’s best team.

Take Orlando -4 at PointsBet.

Salt Lake Stallions at San Diego Fleet (-6)

In some respects, I’d say San Diego is underrated. They probably should be 3-1 instead of 2-2 as they were up 20-6 over Memphis last week before quarterback Philip Nelson broke his clavicle. Once he went out, the offense completely stalled and Memphis rallied for a big comeback.

On the other hand, it’s hard to trust San Diego now that Nelson is out. Remember, this team started the season with Mike Bercovici under center and they lost that game. They switched to Nelson, won two in a row and looked like they would win a third straight game before losing Nelson and blowing it. Now they have to return to Bercovici or go to Alex Ross, who had three turnovers in the second half.

The challenge is that Salt Lake isn’t very good themselves. Their top two running backs are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and none of the three quarterbacks they’ve used this season have been effective. They have just two passing touchdowns. That makes it hard to trust them on the road at San Diego.

San Diego Fleet -6 is the pick at PointsBet.

Memphis Express at Atlanta Legends (1.5)

Atlanta has been the worst team in the league so far but much of that has had to do with their offense. They tried to make things work with Matt Simms but that was a disaster as he posted six interceptions and just two touchdowns.

A switch to Aaron Murray seemingly woke this team up last week as they won on the road at Arizona. Murray went 20-of-33 for 254 yards while also adding another 54 rushing yards. However, Memphis has also been a different team since they made the switch to Zach Mettenberger. He completed 72% of his passes last week with one touchdown and no turnovers.

More importantly, this team has the better of the two defenses as they have forced nine turnovers. This team might be better than 1-3 record suggests as they lost by two in Week 2 and lost by four to the league-best Orlando Apollos in Week 3. I’ll take them with the points.

Take Memphis + 2 at PointsBet.

San Antonio Commanders at Arizona Hotshots (-2.5)

Few teams have faded faster than the Hotshots. They won by 16 in Week 1, but then needed a fourth-quarter miracle comeback to earn a win in Week 2, lost at Salt Lake in Week 3 and then lost at home to a winless Atlanta team in Week 4.

This team was vastly overrated as the favorite to win this league and given how they’ve played since Week 1, it’s tough to trust them in any spot. They’ve averaged just 15.3 points per game over their last three contests.

San Antonio is the better team here and they are getting points. Take them as they should win and cover in this spot.

Take San Antonio +115 at PointsBet.

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