Adam Caplan's NFL Daily Fantasy Top Plays for Week 12

Adam Caplan

November 21st, 2018

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There are some fantasy football matchups this week that really stand out from others, which is mostly what you’ll see below.

Whether you’re in a daily fantasy contest or a season long league, it’s always about matchups, numbers, and gut feeling.

When I recommended Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith last week, I did so knowing how bad the Eagles injury situation was in their secondary (and it would become even worse during the game), which made the matchup way more attractive for fantasy owners. I was not scared off by his zero-point production from the previous week.

And as you’ll also see below, I’m not going to shy after from players who have been benched at various points in the season.

Week 12 Quarterback Best Bet

Jameis Winston = $7,500 at FanDuel

Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers

I know you’re probably wondering why I would recommend a quarterback who has been benched more than once this season.

Well, at this point, the Buccaneers are in “evaluation mode,” which means they are evaluating players for next season knowing the reality is that they are not truly in the playoff hunt.

And Winston, in his fourth season, needs to have further evaluation of where he’s at in his career. Keep in mind the team still has to decide whether to pay his fifth-year option in March.

So, this game against the less than average 49er defense sets up well for an evaluation. The 49ers lack a consistent pass rush and the Buccaneers still have one of the NFL’s best receiver corps.

While the numbers over their last 4 games would suggest that their secondary is playing well, the reality is that teams been able to run the ball so well against the 49ers defense, so they’re not throwing it a lot. That should change on Sunday with the pass happy Buccaneers.

Week 12 Running Back Best Bet

Nick Chubb = $7,500 at FanDuel

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

I’m one of those fantasy owners who seems to not start the rookie running back in the right weeks. But don’t fret, I have him in one of my five leagues and will be starting him the rest of the way.

And this week, Chubb will be facing the worst ranked defense in terms of giving up fantasy production over its last four games.

Over that time span, the Bengals defense is giving up nearly 5.5 yards per carry (5.47), has given up 9 total TDs (6 rushing, 3 receiving) and nearly 148 yards rushing (147.75) per game.

The Bengals put starting MLB Preston Brown on IR and starting SLB Nick Vigil has missed significant time with a sprained knee.

This all sets up for a big week for Chubb.

Week 12 Wide Receiver Best Bets

Odell Beckham Jr. = $8,500 at FanDuel

Matchup: New York Giants vs. at Philadelphia Eagles

If I’m going to recommend a wide receiver with such a high salary, I will only do so if the matchup is looking great. Well, OBJ has one of those matchups where you should feel very good about his chances to put up big numbers.

Over their last four games, the Eagles secondary has been getting torched mostly due to injury issues.

And it won’t get any better this week on the injury front, as they’ll be without at least three key players on the back-end.

The Eagles defense, over those four games, has been one of the worst against opposing wide receivers. They’ve given up 64 receptions (16 per game), 862 yards (215.5 yards per game), and 5 TDs over that time frame, so start OBJ with confidence this week.

Jarvis Landry = $6,100 at FanDuel

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

While Landry’s fantasy production has dropped a little bit over his last few games, he is still one of the NFL’s top possession wide receivers. And he has at least 10 pass targets in 7 of his 10 games this season.

This week, the fifth-year pro will be facing the struggling Bengals secondary, which has given up over 41 fantasy points in PPR scoring over their last 4 games. And over that span, they are giving up over 14.0 yards per catch.

This should be a fairly high-scoring game, so Landry should get plenty of chances to post good fantasy points this week.

Week 12 Tight End Best Bet

George Kittle = $7,500 at FanDuel

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Because the 49ers have a record of 2-8 through 11 weeks, not many people are noticing Kittle’s breakout season.

The second-year pass catcher is averaging 5 receptions and 77.5 yards per game so far this season to go along with a 15.5 yards per catch average. And talk about consistency; Kittle has not had fewer than 4 receptions over his last 8 games.

Kittle returns from his Week 11 bye against the struggling Buccaneer defense, which has given up over 16.0 yards per catch over its last 4 games, which ranks them worst in that category in the NFL.

While Kittle has an undrafted rookie quarterback throwing to him, there’s still simply no reason to think he can put up solid numbers again this week against a bad Buccaneers defense.

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Week 12 Flex Best Bet

Josh Adams = $5,700 at FanDuel

Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

Well, you’re probably wondering why I would have an Eagles running back on a recommendation to start list considering how disappointing their running game has been this season.

However, in case you haven’t been paying attention lately, the undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame has become their featured back in recent weeks and has been doing quite well.

Over his last three games, Adams has posted just 23 carries, but rushed for 161 yards (7.0 per carry).

This should be a game where he has at least 10 carries as I don’t see the Eagles falling far behind in this game. And the Giants, over their last four game, are giving up nearly 5 yards per carry.

Adam Caplan's NFL Week 12 FanDuel Lineup