All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

When the Philadelphia Eagles stunned the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII, it seemed like an upset for the ages. In reality, it was simply the continuation of an NFL betting trend.

Underdogs have dominated in Super Bowl betting for almost two decades during the 2000s and 2010s, winning against the spread in the NFL’s championship game 12 times in 17 years.


Every Super Bowl Against the Spread Result

Super BowlATS ResultScoreLine
LIIIFavoritePatriots 13, Rams 3Patriots -2.5
LIIUnderdogEagles 41, Patriots 33Patriots -4
LIFavoritePatriots 34, Falcons 28Patriots -3
50UnderdogBroncos 24, Panthers 10Panthers -5
XLIXFavoritePatriots 28, Seahawks 24Patriots -1
XLVIIIUnderdogSeahawks 43, Broncos 8Broncos -2.5
XLVIIUnderdogRavens 34, 49ers 3149ers -4
XLVIUnderdogGiants 21, Patriots 17Patriots -3
XLVFavoritePackers 35, Steelers 31Packers -2.5
XLIVUnderdogSaints 31, Colts 17Colts -4.5
XLIIIFavoriteSteelers 27, Cardinals 23Steelers -7
XLIIUnderdogGiants 17, Patriots 14Patriots -12.5
XLIFavoriteColts 29, Bears 17Colts -7
XLFavoriteSteelers 21, Seahawks 10Steelers -4
XXXIXUnderdogPatriots 24, Eagles 21Patriots -7
XXXVIIIUnderdogPatriots 32, Panthers 29Patriots -7
XXXVIIUnderdogBuccaneers 48, Raiders 21Raiders -4
XXXVIUnderdogPatriots 20, Rams 17Rams -14
XXXVFavoriteRavens 34, Giants 7Ravens -3
XXXIVPushCardinals 23, Titans 16Cardinals -7
XXXIIIFavoriteBroncos 34, Falcons 19Broncos -7.5
XXXIIUnderdogBroncos 31, Packers 24Packers -11.5
XXXIPushPackers 35, Patriots 21Packers -14
XXXUnderdogCowboys 27, Steelers 17Cowboys -13.5
XXIXFavorite49ers 49, Chargers 2649ers -18
XXVIIIFavoriteCowboys 30, Bills 13Cowboys -10.5
XXVIIFavoriteCowboys 52, Bills 17Cowboys -6.5
XXVIFavoriteRedskins 37, Bills 24Redskins -7
XXVUnderdogGiants 20, Bills 19Bills -6.5
XXIVFavorite49ers 55, Broncos 1049ers -12
XXIIIUnderdog49ers 20, Bengals 1649ers -7
XXIIUnderdogRedskins 42, Broncos 10Broncos -3.5
XXIFavoriteGiants 39, Broncos 20Giants -9.5
XXFavoriteBears 46, Patriots 10Bears -10
XIXFavorite49ers 38, Dolphins 1649ers -3
XVIIIUnderdogRaiders 38, Redskins 9Redskins -3.5
XVIIUnderdogRedskins 27, Dolphins 17Dolphins -3
XVIUnderdog49ers 26, Bengals 21Bengals -1
XVUnderdogRaiders 27, Eagles 10Eagles -3
XIVFavoriteSteelers 31, Rams 19Steelers -10.5
XIIIFavoriteSteelers 35, Cowboys 31Steelers -3.5
XIIFavoriteCowboys 27, Broncos 10Cowboys -6
XIFavoriteRaiders 32, Vikings 14Raiders -4.5
XUnderdogSteelers 21, Cowboys 17Steelers -6.5
IXFavoriteSteelers 16, Vikings 6Steelers -3
VIIIFavoriteDolphins 24, Vikings 7Dolphins -6.5
VIIFavoriteDolphins 14, Redskins 7Dolphins -1.5
VIFavoriteCowboys 24, Dolphins 3Cowboys -6
VUnderdogColts 16, Cowboys 13Cowboys -2.5
IVUnderdogChiefs 23, Vikings 7Vikings -12
IIIUnderdogJets 16, Colts 7Colts -18
IIFavoritePackers 33, Raiders 14Packers -13.5
IFavoritePackers 25, Chiefs 10Packers -14

Super Bowl ATS Betting Trends

The Eagles were four-point underdogs to Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in 2018, but with their 41-33 victory became the fifth underdog to win against the spread in seven years, and the eighth to win in the 11 years.

Favorites once dominated in Super Bowls, winning 10 of 12 from 1992-2001 in what was the game’s blowout era — due in part to NFC supremacy over the Buffalo Bills, who not only lost four Super Bowls but went 0-4 against the spread. A tough run, but they at least had those conference championships to enjoy.

Things began to change in 2002, when the then-upstart Patriots knocked off the St. Louis Rams, who at -14 were the largest Super Bowl favorite since 1997.

That 20-17 New England victory kicked off a span of four straight Super Bowls in which underdogs won against the spread. Favorites haven’t won three straight in the NFL’s premier event since 1999-2001.

And the recent run of underdog victories had closed the overall record through 53 Super Bowls: 26 victories by favorites against the spread, 25 victories by underdogs, and two pushes.


Every Super Bowl Over/Under Result

Super BowlOver/Under ResultScoreLine
LIIIUnderPatriots 13, Rams 356.5
LIIOverEagles 41, Patriots 3349
LIOverPatriots 34, Falcons 2858
50UnderBroncos 24, Panthers 1043.5
XLIXOverPatriots 28, Seahawks 2447.5
XLVIIIUnderSeahawks 43, Broncos 847.5
XLVIIOverRavens 34, 49ers 3147
XLVIUnderGiants 21, Patriots 1754
XLVOverPackers 35, Steelers 3145
XLIVUnderSaints 31, Colts 1756.5
XLIIIOverSteelers 27, Cardinals 2346.5
XLIIUnderGiants 17, Patriots 1454.5
XLIUnderColts 29, Bears 1748
XLUnderSteelers 21, Seahawks 1047
XXXIXUnderPatriots 24, Eagles 2147.5
XXXVIIIOverPatriots 32, Panthers 2937.5
XXXVIIOverBuccaneers 48, Raiders 2144
XXXVIUnderPatriots 20, Rams 1753.5
XXXVOverRavens 34, Giants 733
XXXIVUnderCardinals 23, Titans 1648
XXXIIIPushBroncos 34, Falcons 1953
XXXIIOverBroncos 31, Packers 2449
XXXIOverPackers 35, Patriots 2149.5
XXXUnderCowboys 27, Steelers 1752
XXIXOver49ers 49, Chargers 2654
XXVIIIUnderCowboys 30, Bills 1350.5
XXVIIOverCowboys 52, Bills 1744.5
XXVIOverRedskins 37, Bills 2448.5
XXVUnderGiants 20, Bills 1940.5
XXIVOver49ers 55, Broncos 1048
XXIIIUnder49ers 20, Bengals 1648
XXIIOverRedskins 42, Broncos 1047
XXIOverGiants 39, Broncos 2040
XXOverBears 46, Patriots 1037.5
XIXOver49ers 38, Dolphins 1653.5
XVIIIUnderRaiders 38, Redskins 948
XVIIOverRedskins 27, Dolphins 1736.5
XVIUnder49ers 26, Bengals 2148
XVUnderRaiders 27, Eagles 1037.5
XIVOverSteelers 31, Rams 1936
XIIIOverSteelers 35, Cowboys 3137
XIIUnderCowboys 27, Broncos 1039
XIOverRaiders 32, Vikings 1438
XOverSteelers 21, Cowboys 1736
IXUnderSteelers 16, Vikings 633
VIIIUnderDolphins 24, Vikings 733
VIIUnderDolphins 14, Redskins 733
VIUnderCowboys 24, Dolphins 334
VUnderColts 16, Cowboys 1336
IVUnderChiefs 23, Vikings 739
IIIUnderJets 16, Colts 740
IIOverPackers 33, Raiders 1443
IN/APackers 25, Chiefs 10N/A

Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends

Eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles and the Philly Special didn’t just continue a trend of underdog victories — they also helped push the Super Bowl total over the over/under number of 49, marking the fifth time in six years that the over paid off.

The only Super Bowl to finish under the number in that span was Denver’s 24-10 upset victory over the Panthers, a game that carried a total of 43.5. The 2019 Super Bowl also went under, with a record-low score of 13-3 coming in way under the 56.5 total.

The under hit four straight years between 2005-08, but since then has won just four times in 11 seasons — in New Orleans’ upset of Indianapolis in 2010, the New York Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2012, the Broncos’ victory over Carolina in 2016, and the 2019 Super Bowl

The Super Bowl over/under total has been at 43.5 or higher since 2004, the last year the title game featured an over/under in the 30s. In the 52 games from 1968-2019 — there was no over/under for Super Bowl I — the over has hit 26 times and the under 25 times, with one push.


Super Bowl Money Trends

The amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl in Nevada sportsbooks has increased over the past decade, with the 2018 game setting a record with a handle of $158.6 million, according to the state Gaming and Control Board.

That bettered the previous record from 2017 by over $20 million, largely due to the growing popularity of prop bets and in-game wagering, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported.

In 2009, the amount of money wagered on the game in Nevada was $81 million. The handle cracked the $90 million mark in 2012, went over the $100 million barrier in 2014, and surpassed $130 million in 2016.

The Eagles’ upset of the Patriots also proved costly to top NFL bookmakers: Nevada casinos won just 0.7 percent of the $158.6 million wagered on the game, according to the Gaming Control Board, narrowly avoiding losing money on the NFL title matchup for just the third time in 28 years.

From 1991-2018, since Nevada sports books began tracking the game, sportsbooks in the state lost money just twice: on the Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2008, and the 49ers’ blowout of the Chargers in 1998, according to the Review-Journal.

2018’s win percentage was the smallest for Nevada books since they won just 0.8 percent in 2011, when Green Bay beat Pittsburgh.


2019 Playoff Trends

Among the teams in the 2019 playoff field, the most reliable cover had been the Chicago Bears, who were 12-4 against the spread — until their last-gasp field goal attempt went dink-dank-doink and allowed the 6.5-point underdog Eagles to pull yet another postseason upset during NFL Wild Card weekend.

It marked the first time the Bears had failed to cover since an outright loss to the Giants five weeks earlier.

Of the teams playing in the NFL Divisional round, the Saints and Chargers had the best records against the spread at 10-6 and 10-7, respectively. New Orleans, which earlier in the season had won nine straight and 10 of 11 against the spread, finished the regular season with three straight ATS losses.

2019 Playoff Teams ATS

2019 Playoff TeamATS
Bears*12-5
Seahawks*10-5-2
Saints10-6
Chargers10-7
Chiefs9-6-1
Colts9-7-1
Patriots9-7
Cowboys9-7-1
Ravens*8-9
Rams7-7-2
Texans*7-8-2
Eagles7-9-1
*-includes playoffs

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