All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

When the New England Patriots captured their sixth Super Bowl in 2019 as a slight favorite over the Los Angeles Rams, it bucked what had become an NFL betting trend in recent years.

Underdogs have dominated in Super Bowl betting for almost two decades during the 2000s and 2010s, winning against the spread in the NFL’s championship game 12 times in 17 years.




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Every Super Bowl Against the Spread Result

Super BowlATS ResultScoreLine
LIIIFavoritePatriots 13, Rams 3Patriots -2.5
LIIUnderdogEagles 41,
Patriots 33
Patriots -4
LIFavoritePatriots 34,
Falcons 28
Patriots -3
50UnderdogBroncos 24,
Panthers 10
Panthers -5
XLIXFavoritePatriots 28,
Seahawks 24
Patriots -1
XLVIIIUnderdogSeahawks 43,
Broncos 8
Broncos -2.5
XLVIIUnderdogRavens 34,
49ers 31
49ers -4
XLVIUnderdogGiants 21,
Patriots 17
Patriots -3
XLVFavoritePackers 31,
Steelers 25
Packers -2.5
XLIVUnderdogSaints 31,
Colts 17
Colts -4.5
XLIIIUnderdogSteelers 27,
Cardinals 23
Steelers -7
XLIIUnderdogGiants 17,
Patriots 14
Patriots -12.5
XLIFavoriteColts 29,
Bears 17
Colts -7
XLFavoriteSteelers 21,
Seahawks 10
Steelers -4
XXXIXUnderdogPatriots 24,
Eagles 21
Patriots -7
XXXVIIIUnderdogPatriots 32,
Panthers 29
Patriots -7
XXXVIIUnderdogBuccaneers 48,
Raiders 21
Raiders -4
XXXVIUnderdogPatriots 20,
Rams 17
Rams -14
XXXVFavoriteRavens 34,
Giants 7
Ravens -3
XXXIVPushRams 23,
Titans 16
Rams -7
XXXIIIFavoriteBroncos 34,
Falcons 19
Broncos -7.5
XXXIIUnderdogBroncos 31,
Packers 24
Packers -11.5
XXXIPushPackers 35,
Patriots 21
Packers -14
XXXUnderdogCowboys 27,
Steelers 17
Cowboys -13.5
XXIXFavorite49ers 49,
Chargers 26
49ers -18
XXVIIIFavoriteCowboys 30,
Bills 13
Cowboys -10.5
XXVIIFavoriteCowboys 52,
Bills 17
Cowboys -6.5
XXVIFavoriteRedskins 37,
Bills 24
Redskins -7
XXVUnderdogGiants 20,
Bills 19
Bills -6.5
XXIVFavorite49ers 55,
Broncos 10
49ers -12
XXIIIUnderdog49ers 20,
Bengals 16
49ers -7
XXIIUnderdogRedskins 42,
Broncos 10
Broncos -3.5
XXIFavoriteGiants 39,
Broncos 20
Giants -9.5
XXFavoriteBears 46,
Patriots 10
Bears -10
XIXFavorite49ers 38,
Dolphins 16
49ers -3
XVIIIUnderdogRaiders 38,
Redskins 9
Redskins -3.5
XVIIUnderdogRedskins 27,
Dolphins 17
Dolphins -3
XVIUnderdog49ers 26,
Bengals 21
Bengals -1
XVUnderdogRaiders 27,
Eagles 10
Eagles -3
XIVFavoriteSteelers 31,
Rams 19
Steelers -10.5
XIIIFavoriteSteelers 35,
Cowboys 31
Steelers -3.5
XIIFavoriteCowboys 27,
Broncos 10
Cowboys -6
XIFavoriteRaiders 32,
Vikings 14
Raiders -4.5
XUnderdogSteelers 21,
Cowboys 17
Steelers -6.5
IXFavoriteSteelers 16,
Vikings 6
Steelers -3
VIIIFavoriteDolphins 24,
Vikings 7
Dolphins -6.5
VIIFavoriteDolphins 14,
Redskins 7
Dolphins -1.5
VIFavoriteCowboys 24,
Dolphins 3
Cowboys -6
VUnderdogColts 16,
Cowboys 13
Cowboys -2.5
IVUnderdogChiefs 23,
Vikings 7
Vikings -12
IIIUnderdogJets 16,
Colts 7
Colts -18
IIFavoritePackers 33,
Raiders 14
Packers -13.5
IFavoritePackers 35,
Chiefs 10
Packers -14

Super Bowl ATS Betting Trends

When the Patriots defeated the Rams in 2019 as 2.5-point favorites, it halted what had become a strong underdog trend. The Eagles were four-point underdogs to Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in 2018, but with their 41-33 victory became the fifth underdog to win against the spread in seven years, and the eighth to win in 11 years.

Favorites once dominated in Super Bowls, winning 10 of 12 from 1992-2001 in what was the game’s blowout era — due in part to NFC supremacy over the Buffalo Bills, who not only lost four Super Bowls but went 0-4 against the spread. A tough run, but they at least had those conference championships to enjoy.

Things began to change in 2002, when the then-upstart Patriots knocked off the St. Louis Rams, who at -14 were the largest Super Bowl favorite since 1997.

That 20-17 New England victory kicked off a span of four straight Super Bowls in which underdogs won against the spread. Favorites haven’t won three straight in the NFL’s premier event since 1999-2001.

And the recent run of underdog victories had closed the overall record through 53 Super Bowls: 26 victories by favorites against the spread, 25 victories by underdogs and two pushes.


Every Super Bowl Over/Under Result

Super BowlOver/Under ResultScoreLine
LIIIUnderPatriots 13,
Rams 3
56.5
LIIOverEagles 41,
Patriots 33
49
LIOverPatriots 34,
Falcons 28
58
50UnderBroncos 24,
Panthers 10
43.5
XLIXOverPatriots 28,
Seahawks 24
47.5
XLVIIIOverSeahawks 43,
Broncos 8
47.5
XLVIIOverRavens 34,
49ers 31
47
XLVIUnderGiants 21,
Patriots 17
54
XLVOverPackers 31,
Steelers 25
45
XLIVUnderSaints 31,
Colts 17
56.5
XLIIIOverSteelers 27,
Cardinals 23
46.5
XLIIUnderGiants 17,
Patriots 14
54.5
XLIUnderColts 29,
Bears 17
48
XLUnderSteelers 21,
Seahawks 10
47
XXXIXUnderPatriots 24,
Eagles 21
47.5
XXXVIIIOverPatriots 32,
Panthers 29
37.5
XXXVIIOverBuccaneers 48,
Raiders 21
44
XXXVIUnderPatriots 20,
Rams 17
53.5
XXXVOverRavens 34,
Giants 7
33
XXXIVUnderRams 23,
Titans 16
48
XXXIIIPushBroncos 34,
Falcons 19
53
XXXIIOverBroncos 31,
Packers 24
49
XXXIOverPackers 35,
Patriots 21
49.5
XXXUnderCowboys 27,
Steelers 17
52
XXIXOver49ers 49,
Chargers 26
54
XXVIIIUnderCowboys 30,
Bills 13
50.5
XXVIIOverCowboys 52,
Bills 17
44.5
XXVIOverRedskins 37,
Bills 24
48.5
XXVUnderGiants 20,
Bills 19
40.5
XXIVOver49ers 55,
Broncos 10
48
XXIIIUnder49ers 20,
Bengals 16
48
XXIIOverRedskins 42,
Broncos 10
47
XXIOverGiants 39,
Broncos 20
40
XXOverBears 46,
Patriots 10
37.5
XIXOver49ers 38,
Dolphins 16
53.5
XVIIIUnderRaiders 38,
Redskins 9
48
XVIIOverRedskins 27,
Dolphins 17
36.5
XVIUnder49ers 26,
Bengals 21
48
XVUnderRaiders 27,
Eagles 10
37.5
XIVOverSteelers 31,
Rams 19
36
XIIIOverSteelers 35,
Cowboys 31
37
XIIUnderCowboys 27,
Broncos 10
39
XIOverRaiders 32,
Vikings 14
38
XOverSteelers 21,
Cowboys 17
36
IXUnderSteelers 16,
Vikings 6
33
VIIIUnderDolphins 24,
Vikings 7
33
VIIUnderDolphins 14,
Redskins 7
33
VIUnderCowboys 24,
Dolphins 3
34
VUnderColts 16,
Cowboys 13
36
IVUnderChiefs 23,
Vikings 7
39
IIIUnderJets 16,
Colts 7
40
IIOverPackers 33,
Raiders 14
43
IN/APackers 35,
Chiefs 10
N/A

Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends

The Patriots and Rams combined for just 16 points in Super Bowl 53, the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history. It also was the biggest gap between actual game total and the sportsbooks' over/under line in history at 40 points. The result ended a trend of overs at five in six Super Bowls.

The only Super Bowl to finish under the number in that span was Denver’s 24-10 upset victory over the Panthers, a game that carried a total of 43.5.

The under hit four straight years between 2005-08, but since then has won just four times in 11 seasons — in New Orleans’ upset of Indianapolis in 2010, the New York Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2012, the Broncos’ victory over Carolina in 2016 and the 2019 Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl over/under total has been at 43.5 or higher each year since 2004, the last year the title game featured an over/under in the 30s. In the 52 games from 1968-2019 — there was no over/under for Super Bowl I — the over has hit 26 times and the under 25 times, with one push.


Super Bowl Money Trends

The amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl in Nevada sportsbooks has increased over the past decade, with the 2018 game setting a record with a handle of $158.6 million, according to the state Gaming and Control Board. In 2019, that number slipped slightly to about $146 million.

In 2009, the amount of money wagered on the game in Nevada was $81 million. The handle cracked the $90 million mark in 2012, went over the $100 million barrier in 2014, and surpassed $130 million in 2016.

The Eagles’ upset of the Patriots in 2018 proved costly to top NFL bookmakers: Nevada casinos won just 0.7 percent of the $158.6 million wagered on the game, according to the Gaming Control Board, narrowly avoiding losing money on the NFL title matchup for just the third time in 28 years. Nevada’s sportsbooks bounced back to net almost $11 million in 2019.

From 1991-2018, since Nevada sports books began tracking the game, sportsbooks in the state lost money just twice: on the Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2008, and the 49ers’ blowout of the Chargers in 1998, according to the Review-Journal.

Sportsbooks in New Jersey reported a much smaller handle than Nevada in 2019, checking in with about $35 million in wagers. They also took it on the chin with many backing the Patriots, losing $4.6 million on the game. That said, William Hill US said its Garden State sportsbooks had its best day to that point; they broke even and had a record number of mobile sign-ups.

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