The Big 12 is coming off a big week as Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas Tech all earned big wins. Let’s take a closer look at the Big 12 college football betting action in Week 4 and evaluate where the best bets lie.
It’s hard to publicly say this, but I do like Kansas this week. In years past, it might be something embarrassing to admit, but you can’t deny that this team – at least in the last couple of weeks – appears to be turning things around.
Yes, the opening week 26-23 overtime loss home to Nicholls is a concern. However, they’ve snapped their 46-game road losing streak at Central Michigan with a 31-7 win and then blasted Rutgers 55-14 last week. This is a team that’s playing with confidence.
As for Baylor, they are fresh off a 40-27 home loss to Duke. This is a program that’s also been trending downhill, winning just one game all of last year (beating Kansas 38-9). This should be a close matchup and Kansas should at least cover – if not win outright.
We’ve already seen the sharp money agree as they opened at +9.5 but are down to +9 in some places. Take the Jayhawks.
Spread Pick: Kansas (+7.5) with SugarHouse.
Outright: Kansas (+230) with SugarHouse.
The Mountaineers are now the No. 12 team in the country after their game with N.C. State was canceled last week due to Hurricane Florence. They’re a huge favorite hosting a Kansas State team that has already faced and lost to a Top 25 team this season, getting blown out 31-10 at home to Mississippi State.
Still, these two teams tend to play close contests. West Virginia has won the last two by a score of 28-23 and 17-16. Prior to that, Kansas State had won four straight. The Mountaineers should win – they’ve won all 11 times when posted as a double-digit favorite in a Big 12 game – but the Wildcats will keep it close.
Spread Pick: Kansas State (+16.5) with SugarHouse.
Outright: West Virginia (-875) with SugarHouse.
We’re not going to overthink this one too much. Yes, it’s the obvious play, but it seems like the right one as we’re going to go over the number in this game.
Of course, we’re facing a huge total but consider this. The total for the Boise State-Oklahoma State game last week opened at 63.5 and closed at 66.5. The score was 0-0 after the first quarter and the two teams still managed 65 points.
Boise State actually has some semblance of a defense; Texas Tech does not. Oklahoma State has scored 55, 58 and 44 in its first three games this season.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is fresh off a game where there was a total of 112 points scored (63-49). Its games haven’t seen less than 74 points this season and it hasn’t allowed less than 47 in a game to an FBS opponent so far.
The over has cashed in 16 of Oklahoma State’s last 21 as a favorite and 12 of its last 15 at home. Six of the last eight meetings in Stillwater have also gone over. Expect fireworks and scoring aplenty. We’ll take the over.
The Pick: Over 78.5
This is a really tough spot for TCU, as it is coming off a deflating loss in primetime to Ohio State and now have to go on the road and is expected to beat an in-state rival. In the grand scheme of things, TCU might be the better team but it might not show this week.
The Longhorns have a habit of disappointing as a favorite (see: Week 1 versus Maryland) but overachieve when nothing is expected (see: Week 3 versus USC).
As ugly as the Maryland loss was and as narrow as the Tulsa win was in Week 2, Texas can wash away all of the negative headlines with a win in this spot. It would make for back-to-back wins over Top-25 programs.
Texas finally has their ground game going as they churned out 160 yards last week while holding USC to -5. That’s a great sign. With TCU still stinging off a primetime loss and Texas thriving in the role of a dog (8-3 ATS in last 11 as a dog), we’ll go with the Longhorns to spring the upset outright.
Spread Pick: Texas (+3.5) with SugarHouse.
Outright: Texas (+140) with SugarHouse.