NBA Trade Recap: What the Deals did to Playoff Odds
The Kyrie Irving trade to the Dallas Mavericks was the first blockbuster trade domino to fall earlier in the NBA this week. Then, chaos ensued.
Kevin Durant was moved to Phoenix, giving the Suns one of the more dynamic perimeter groupings with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Durant. The Los Angeles Lakers moved Russell Westbrook to bring in more shooting. Contenders such as the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors added defensive help on the wings to bolster their lineups.
Here’s a breakdown of the title odds for the contenders who attempted to improve their teams before Thursday’s trade deadline.
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% Chance | |||||||
| Phoenix Suns | 27.03% | +260 |
-- | +250 | +240 | +270 |
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| Denver Nuggets | 22.22% | +325 |
-- | +325 | +350 | +290 |
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| Golden State Warriors | 15.38% | +500 |
-- | +550 | +550 | +480 |
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Phoenix Suns +425 DraftKings
The Suns saw the biggest movement in their title odds following the deadline. Before the deal, the Suns were +1800 to win the NBA Finals. After securing Durant, those odds fell to +425. Phoenix’s Western Conference odds also saw movement, going from +800 to +230 following the trade.
It’s not unusual to see sportsbooks overreact with futures bettingwhen marquee players change teams. As exciting as it might be to dream of the potential of a lineup consisting of Paul, Booker, Durant, T.J. Warren and DeAndre Ayton, there are still concerns about this team.
Paul is older and has dealt with injuries, missing 21 games and is averaging the lowest point total of his career (13.7). Booker is still out with a groin injury, and Durant’s timetable to return from a knee injury is still uncertain. Depth is also a concern for Phoenix after Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson.
In addition to the health questions, the Suns must go through the process of getting accustomed to their new lineup with just a handful of games left and no definitive date for Durant and Booker to return. There are simply too many uncertainties to bet the Suns at this low number.
Milwaukee Bucks +600 DraftKings
Jae Crowder has yet to play this season after requesting a trade from Phoenix during the offseason. The 3-and-D wing got his wish when the Suns traded him to Milwaukee as part of a three-team deal. Crowder gives the Bucks another lengthy perimeter defender on the wing who can knock down shots from the perimeter. In his last three seasons, he shot 45%, 39% and 35% from 3 and will get more open looks as teams load up to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo.
DraftKings and FanDuel reacted differently to the trade. A role player like Crowder typically doesn’t move the lines, but FanDuel dropped the Bucks' odds from +600 to +410 after the trade deadline, while DraftKings has remained at +600.
Out of the contenders, the Bucks are who I’d look to back right now. The team is getting healthy with Khris Middleton now playing regularly and Antetokounmpo dominating once again (32.3 points, 12.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists). Adding a wing defender and shooter should be a more seamless transition compared to the Suns, and there aren’t as many injury concerns.
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% Chance | |||||||
| Milwaukee Bucks | 40.82% | +140 |
-- | +130 | +145 | +115 |
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| Boston Celtics | 33.90% | +160 |
-- | +160 | +155 | +195 |
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| Philadelphia 76ers | 17.24% | +450 |
-- | +400 | +450 | +480 |
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