March Madness: The Best Prop Bets for Round 1

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 18th, 2023
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March Madness: The Best Prop Bets for Round 1
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As March Madness is tipping off, the next four days are some of the most fun of the year, providing mountains of drama, storylines, Cinderella, giant slayers, and many other Disney-like experiences.

With that said, the tournament gives us plenty of prop betting opportunities.

Here, we will break down my best bet prop bets that I am taking to the window right after I complete this resource document.

Teams to Make the Final Four

In last year’s tournament, Gonzaga was one of two 1-seeds to make it to the Final Four and held on for a 93-90 win as a 14-point favorite over No. 11-seed UCLA.

Baylor was the other No. 1 seed to make the Final Four, beating 2-seeded Houston and then Gonzaga 86-70 to win the title. So, three of the four finalists were either 1 or 2-seed.

In 2019, 5-seed Auburn won the Midwest Region, 1-seed Virginia won the South, 2-seed Michigan State won the East, and 3-seed Texas Tech Red won the West.

Virginia beat Texas Tech to win the title. So, we had two teams seeded 1 or 2 to reach the Final Four. Such has been the trend for the Final Four teams over the past 15 Tournaments.

The value is for a solid prop bet for a team not seeded 1 or 2 to make the trip through the bracket to reach the Final Four.

So, let’s eliminate the 1-seeds Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor and Kansas and the 2-seeds Villanova, Duke, Kentucky and Auburn. (Although I did bet Auburn to win the tournament at +1700 at BetMGM Sportsbook earlier in the week).

The 3-seeds Wisconsin +1200, Texas Tech +500, Purdue +450, and Tennessee +550 provide some insight into the betting community’s betting sentiment.

Three of these teams. Purdue, Tennessee, and Texas Tech are all lined about the same, but the outlier is Wisconsin at +1200 and reflects that essentially no one believes they are a legitimate 3-seed.

I recommend getting on Wisconsin at +1200 as offered at BetMGM to make the Final Four.

One other team coming in with an efficient offense is Iowa, which in my opinion, were undervalued by the committee and seeded 5.

Interesting to note that despite being a 5-seed, the market prices the Hawkeyes as more likely to reach the Final Four then any of the 3-seed teams.

The Hawkeyes are +375 to make it to the Final Four and I like that bet as well.

Making the Sweet 16

Looking at the futures bet offerings at BetMGM, we can bet on if any team will reach the Final Four, Elite Eight, and the Sweet 16 rounds.

Wisconsin has a high probability of making it to the Sweet 16 based on my predictive models, and you are getting +115 from BetMGM, it happens.

Iowa is +150 to make it to the Elite Eight Round, which I have bet.

The sleeper is Alabama, a 6-seed and are +250 to make it to the Sweet 16 Round.