AAF Week 4 Odds, Tips and Best Bets to Consider Backing

AAF Week 4 Odds, Tips and Best Bets to Consider Backing

Week 4 AAF Odds

  • San Diego (-6.5) vs Memphis -- Moneyline: Fleet (-245), Express (+195); O/U: 40
  • Orlando (-4.5) vs Salt Lake -- Moneyline: Apollos (-190), Stallions (+155); O/U: 41
  • Birmingham (-7.5) vs San Antonio -- Moneyline: Iron (-145), Commanders (+235); O/U: 36
  • Arizona (-13.5) vs Atlanta -- Moneyline: HotShots (-500), Legends (+375); O/U: 41

Bet all these lines and markets at 888Sport.

Week 4 AAF Best Bets

The AAF moves into Week 4 and it feels like we’re starting to get a grip on the teams. One thing that’s become quite clear is that home-field advantage is quite valuable. Through three weeks, home teams are 9-4, averaging 24.1 points per game compared to the road teams, who are scoring 15.3.

Let’s take a closer look at Week 4 and make some picks:

San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express

The Fleet lost their opener but have won two straight. The change in trajectory can attests to a change in game plan on offense: run the ball more.

The Fleet fell 15-6 at San Antonio in Week 1 when they gave Ja’Quan Gardner just eight carries. They fed him 15 carries in Week 2, which led to 104 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns, and handed him the ball 12 times for 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. San Diego won 24-12 in Week 2 and 31-11 in Week 3.

It also helps that they have a defense that’s been quite dominant. They have 11 sacks in three games along with five interceptions. They’re giving up just 12.0 points per game.

Will that work against Memphis? It should be careful. The Memphis team we’ve seen so far will not be the same one we see in Week 3. Christian Hackenberg, who was a disaster for the New York Jets and Memphis Express, has been benched. Zach Mettenberger came in last week and completed 9-of-12 for 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Don’t be surprised if Memphis pulls this out. At the very least, they should cover.

Take Memphis +6.5 with 888Sport.

Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions

Orlando is just one of two teams that’s yet to lose this season. Their offense is really clicking, averaging a league-best 32.7 points per game, and quarterback Garrett Gilbert has arguably been the best in the league so far. It helps that he has a couple of quality wideouts in Charles Johnson and Jalin Marshall, both of whom are top-five in receiving yards.

Salt Lake is going to look to run the ball and control the clock here as quarterback Josh Woodrum has been hit-or-miss. This figures to be a bad matchup for them, though, as their offense is not explosive, averaging just 18.0 points per game.

Look for Orlando to drag them into a shootout, which won’t work out well for the Stallions.

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San Antonio Commanders at Birmingham Iron

Birmingham continues to get a lot of attention as former NFL running back Trent Richardson had a league-best six touchdowns. This team is also 3-0 but it’s a bit deceiving. They shut out Christian Hackenberg in Week 1 and we know he’s been bad. Then they faced Salt Lake’s third-string quarterback in Week 2 and won. Then they beat the Atlanta Legends in Week 3, who have the league’s worst offense.

While they have Richardson, he’s averaging a miniscule 2.5 yards per carry and quarterback Luis Perez has yet to throw a touchdown all season. This team is overrated but can San Antonio expose them?

The Commanders have coughed up an average of 34.0 points per game in the last two weeks. They also can’t quite figure out how to kickstart their offense. They scored 29 points in Week 2 but scored 15 or less in their other two contests. That led to Logan Woodside getting benched late last week, even though he’s second in the league in passing yards. On the road is not a spot where I’ll trust this team.

Bet Birmingham at -7.5 at 888Sport.

Atlanta Legends at Arizona HotShots

The HotShots took the league by storm in Week 1 but have cooled off quite a bit since. They entered the season as the favorite to win the championship and looked great in their 38-22 win over Salt Lake. However, they had to dig out of a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to outlast winless Memphis 20-18 in Week 2. Then they lost to the same Salt Lake team they previously beat in Week 3, falling 23-15.

The good news is this week, they get to host at Atlanta team that’s among the worst in the AAF. They’re offense is without a doubt the most challenged – possibly because offensive coordinator Michael Vick quit the team on the even of the season. At any rate, they have scored just two touchdowns in three games, averaged a league-low 10.0 points per contest and averaged a paltry 4.4 yards per play. On defense, they’ve allowed an average of 30.7 points per game.

This game would scream blowout save for the fact that Arizona quarterback John Wolford strained his back last week and is questionable to play. Trevor Knight would start and take over otherwise. Either way, it’s still probably an Arizona win and cover. Atlanta hasn’t lost by less than 12 points yet.

Back Arizona at -13.5 with 888Sport.

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