PGA Championship Best Bets, Expert Tips & 2021 Betting Guide

PGA Championship Best Bets, Expert Tips & 2021 Betting Guide

Quick Tips

Get ready for strong winds, fast greens – and renewed Rorymania.

The 2021 PGA Championship is headed back to Kiawah Island’s famed Ocean Course, Pete Dye’s jewel on the South Carolina coast. And golf betting enthusiasm over Rory McIlroy is sure to be picking up steam.

It’s easy to see why. McIlroy prevailed May 9 at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, N.C., itself a former PGA Championship venue, for his first victory in 18 months. His next start is on the Ocean Course, where he routed the field to win his first major at the PGA Championship in 2012. No wonder the Northern Irishman vaulted over Dustin Johnson in most books to become the top odds choice at Kiawah.

McIlroy won that 2012 PGA by a record eight shots on a weekend where only 20 players broke par. Kiawah could be more difficult this time around – May in the Palmetto State traditionally brings stronger winds and less greens-softening rain that August, when the event used to be played. On the Ocean Course’s toughest days, PGA pros can shoot 80 and above. Not even Rorymania is immune to that.

5 Best Bets For The PGA Championship

Jon Rahm to Bounce Back from Wells Fargo Flop

Yes, Rahm missed the cut at Charlotte, but he had just become a father so we can blame the baby for that. Otherwise Rahm has been in sublime form this season, with seven of his eight previous finishes being 13th or better. In events where he has made the cut, his average finish has been 10.3. He and Xander Schauffele are the two best active players without a major and, like the X-Man, Rahm continues to put himself in position to win the big one again and again.

Bet Jon Rahm Each Way at +1400/+280 with FOX Bet.

Jordan Spieth Could Complete Career Grand Slam

We’re believers and few players on tour have been better in 2021 than the resurgent Spieth, who between Phoenix and Augusta posted six top-nine finishes in eight starts. He was solid all four days at The Masters, he has the monkey of winning again off his back, and he looks like a guy who could complete the career Grand Slam sooner rather than later.

Bet Jordan Spieth Each Way at +1600/+320 with PointsBet.

Xander Schauffele Close to Ending Major Drought

The X-Man is overdue. His third-place finish at The Masters marked another outstanding effort for a player who has been top-10 in seven of his last 11 majors. His 14th-place result at the Wells Fargo Championship was his only event since Augusta, but Schauffele tends to be good in all types of majors. Can he handle the wind at Kiawah? A 2019 victory in Hawaii suggests he will be more than able.

Bet Xander Schauffele to win at +2200 with FanDuel.

Viktor Hovland in Red Hot Form

Collin Morikawa was ranked 12th in the world when he won last year’s PGA, and No. 11 Hovland is poised for a similar breakthrough. He has played very well lately, with back-to-back T3s at Charlotte and Innisbrook. One of his tour victories came on a coastal layout in Puerto Rico, which might bode well in terms of him handling the wind.

Bet Viktor Hovland Each Way at +2800/+560 with DraftKings.

Webb Simpson Going in Under the Radar

If you’re looking for an American who could be a surprise winner then consider Webb Simpson, who hasn’t won this season but has played solid golf all year. This is a guy who can hang around and steal a major after everyone else makes mistakes, just as he did in the 2012 U.S. Open. Simpson is not known for his length but is good everywhere else, which is just the type of package it takes to win at Kiawah.

Bet Webb Simpson at +4500 with Caesars.

5 Betting Tips For The PGA Championship

Recent Form Is Critical

Listen, the Ocean Course is hard. Friday of the last PGA at Kiawah was one of the toughest days ever at a major championship. Players shot in the 90s, which you never see anywhere else. So this is not the week for a struggling player to magically rediscover his game.

Long Shots can Prevail

The PGA Championship boasts a deep field, and it has developed a reputation for producing some unforeseen winners like Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner, Jimmy Walker and Morikawa in the last decade alone. There are lots of players, like Hovland, Tyrell Hatton and Max Homa capable of continuing that trend, so don’t be shy about backing someone each way at bigger odds.

Take Americans Seriously

Although the dominance of U.S. players has ebbed, Americans won 10 of 12 PGAs between 1996 and 2007 and this event still largely belongs to the red, white and blue. Americans enter this year having won three straight, with Morikawa’s victory following consecutive triumphs by Brooks Koepka, and they also owned five of the six top places in the World Golf Rankings as of last week.

Be Wary of Bombers

McIlroy’s comeback has spared us another week of fan hype on Bryson DeChambeau entering a major. He’s fun, inventive and unpredictable which is great for fans but not for bettors. Do you really trust the guy off the tee when the wind is howling 20 mph off the Atlantic Ocean, particularly after his T46 at Augusta? Wind is a nemesis of players known for their driving distance, a category where DeChambeau is No. 1 on tour.

Watch Out for Pin Seekers

With elevated greens, the likelihood of little rain and the near-certainty of consistent wind, the Ocean Course shapes up as a layout made for iron players who hit strong approach shots. Maybe they’re not the longest drivers, but their accuracy from the fairway gives them a chance. While prowess varies by distance, this is an area where players like Justin Thomas, Spieth and Morikawa consistently excel.

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