Sugar Bowl 2019 Betting Tips and Picks: Georgia vs. Texas

Sugar Bowl 2019 Betting Tips and Picks: Georgia vs. Texas

Quick Tips

  • Bet Texas Longhorns +12.5 with SugarHouse.
  • Bet OVER 58 points to be scored with SugarHouse.

The most recent meeting between Georgia and Texas certainly lives large in the minds of those who were there to see it and surely NCAA betting fans on both sides.

The Bulldogs edged the Longhorns 10-9 in a classic of a 1984 Cotton Bowl, with Georgia ending unbeaten Texas’ bid for the national crown.

When the Bulldogs and Longhorns next meet, Jan. 1 in the Sugar Bowl, there will be no impact on the national title. That was ensured when Alabama rallied past Georgia and Oklahoma pulled away from Texas, sending two of college football’s top brand names to a consolation prize in New Orleans for bowl season betting fans.

Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite, surely influenced by a Longhorns defense that ranks 68th nationally. Can Georgia cover the widest line of any New Year’s game? Can the teams hit an over/under of 58? Will there be enough booze on Bourbon Street to satisfy two huge and demanding fan bases?

Best Sugar Bowl Bets, Tips and Picks

Bulldogs Against the Spread

Georgia blew out most opponents, reflected in their record against the spread. The Bulldogs covered in nine out of their first 13 games, and have covered five out of their last six. Between losses at LSU and to Alabama, their average margin of victory was 23 points.

Four times this season, Georgia has covered a spread bigger than the 12.5-point line for the Sugar Bowl: 34 against Middle Tennessee, 26 against Vanderbilt, 13.5 against Auburn and 17 against Georgia Tech. Their smallest margin of victory during the regular season was 14 points against Missouri.

Bulldogs Over/Under

Georgia ranks 13th nationally in scoring with an average of 39.2 ppg, and it shows in how often they’ve been at or over the total. Since losing at LSU on Oct. 13, Georgia has finished under just once, with one push. They went over six times in the regular season as a whole, with five unders and a pair of pushes — one being their loss to Alabama.

As for the 58-point over/under in the Sugar Bowl, Georgia has eclipsed that mark in each of its last three games, and four times overall. The largest total the Bulldogs have exceeded in a single game is 68.5 against Missouri, aided by the Tigers putting up 29 in the loss.

Texas Against the Spread

The Longhorns have failed to cover in two straight, and seven of 13 games so far. A few of those are concerning — like sluggish, closer-than-expected victories over Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Tulsa, and an outright loss at Maryland.

Several of those ATS defeats came as quarterback Sam Ehlinger battled a shoulder injury that’s hampered him since mid-October. But not all of them; Maryland and Tulsa were Texas’ first two games. Outright losses to the Terps and Oklahoma State — teams that would go 5-7 and 6-6, respectively — are ugly compared to Georgia, whose only speed bump came at top-10 LSU.

Texas Over/Under

In the high-flying Big 12, Texas has been somewhat pedestrian, ranking in the middle of the pack with its 31.3 average ppg. In a league where over/under totals could grow downright ginormous, it made the Longhorns a mixed bet at best against the number.

Texas has fallen under the total in each of their last three, including a Big 12 title game where the over/under was a ridiculous 79.5. The Longhorns have gone over the number six times in 13 games this season, with the largest total they’ve exceeded being 62.5 at Texas Tech. They’ve gone over 58, the number for the Sugar Bowl, four times.

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2019 Sugar Bowl Picks

Texas +12.5

Will Georgia win? Almost certainly. By double-digits? As uneven as the Longhorns have been, their losses were all relatively close. Their victory over Oklahoma is the best single win by either team in this game. Ehlinger has a month to rest. Texas has some Georgia-quality athletes in end Charles Omenihu, safety Caden Sterns and corner Kris Boyd. And Tom Herman is a good game day coach (better than Kirby Smart) with a very long time to game-plan. Take the Longhorns and the points.

Over 58 Points to be Scored

Georgia has gone over that number with regularity late in the season, in one case — against Alabama in the SEC title game — against a much better defense than they’ll see in New Orleans. Texas’ offense goes as Ehlinger goes, and the layoff will only help his shoulder and his team’s offensive productivity. Bet the over at 58 points.

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